Will we qualify for the CL?

[JUAN PABLO]

Having seen Chavski's fixtures , I would say we will qualify. Of course need more of the west ham performance , but think we will have a good run now.

[SaddVillan]

There are only 2 things to look at in the run in.
Current points
Maximum possible points.

Once our current point exceeds the maximum possible of one of our "competitors", then it's job done     

                   Current Pts   Max pts 
Arsenal        70                91
ManC           61                85
ManU           55                76
Villa              54                75
Lpool            49               70
Chel              48               69
Brent            46                67
Evert             46                67

Brentford and Everton included because .... ....You never know.

[TheToffnar]

Not going to get carried away after yesterday, but it's rare we drop the ball so quickly after finding a vein of form.

Even if I where being pessimistic, I still think the run in for the other two will see them off, irrespective of how bumpy it could be for us over the next 7.

[Brazilian Villain]

There are only 2 things to look at in the run in.
Current points
Maximum possible points.

Once our current point exceeds the maximum possible of one of our "competitors", then it's job done     

In theory, but never underestimate the influence of the Sky 6 cartel.

[Pat Mustard]

There are only 2 things to look at in the run in.
Current points
Maximum possible points.

Once our current point exceeds the maximum possible of one of our "competitors", then it's job done     

                   Current Pts   Max pts 
Arsenal        70                91
ManC           61                85
ManU           55                76
Villa              54                75
Lpool            49               70
Chel              48               69
Brent            46                67
Evert             46                67

Brentford and Everton included because .... ....You never know.

Given both Chelsea and Liverpool can't get maximum points, 68 would now guarantee a top 5 finish. 

[caster troy]

It looks like three phases to me.

Phase 1 - four games in 11 days, two tough physical games with Forest and Sunderland. Target - 4 points
Phase 2 - Fulham/Spurs/Burnley with potentially the Europa semi either side of Spurs. Target - 5 to 7 points
Phase 3 - tough finish, Liverpool and Man City with potentially the Europa final in the middle. Target - hopefully nothing needed

I can't get my head around how huge the next couple of months are. There is a possibility that we could get top 5 ahead of one of our key rivals, win a trophy, see Newcastle and Spurs in financial trouble, potentially the end of Guardiola at Man City and a remote chance they could finally be punished. This could be the moment we break the glass ceiling.  The worry is if we don't do it this time we may never get another opportunity.

[Dave]

Incidentally while supporters are always prone to the pessimistic and assuming the worse-case, the prevailing view amongst Chelsea supporters is that their Champions League race is now completely done and they're talking about what they do when they finish outside the European places altogether.

And with their run in, I do wonder how much a month running around playing seven matches in the American sunshine across June and July, having played right up until the last possible match the previous season is doing for their fatigue levels at the moment.

Two years ago we partly put our patchy late-season form down to being tired after a long season in the Conference League. There's a lot of running that's gone through those Chelsea legs in the last two years.

[Somniloquism]

And quite a few of them will be running around in the American sunshine in June and July this summer as well so it could eff them up for two seasons. If they don't qualify for Europe, will their "punishment" be suspended until they return or carry on even though they are not in the competition?

[Smithy]

There are only 2 things to look at in the run in.
Current points
Maximum possible points.

Once our current point exceeds the maximum possible of one of our "competitors", then it's job done     

                   Current Pts   Max pts 
Arsenal        70                91
ManC           61                85
ManU           55                76
Villa              54                75
Lpool            49               70
Chel              48               69
Brent            46                67
Evert             46                67

Brentford and Everton included because .... ....You never know.

Although that "Max points" assessment is correct for each individual team in isolation (should they win all remaining games), the teams around us have to play each other, which means it's impossible for ALL of them to reach the maximum.

Chelsea v Man Utd (13th April)
Man Utd vs Liverpool (2nd May)
Liverpool vs Chelsea (9th May)

We probably want Man Utd to win both of their games, and Liverpool to beat Chelsea; that would put Chelsea's maximum points at 63.  Which means we'd need 3 wins and a draw, and we'd definitely finish above them.  And that assumes Chelsea beat Man City as well.

There are a LOT of permutations, but if we win a couple more in the next 3 league games, I think we'll be pretty much home and dry.  I still don't want to go into the last two games with a mathematical chance that we can still finish 6th.

I'm genuinely shocked how we're not only still in it, but in a decent position, given how bad our poor run actually was, but I guess it's a testament just HOW good our previous good run was. 

[Somniloquism]

The worst part of our bad run was the 6 points were against Newcastle and Brighton. If we had lost those two but got 6 points from Chelsea and Manure, we would have been done now.

[Dave]

There are a LOT of permutations, but if we win a couple more in the next 3 league games, I think we'll be pretty much home and dry.  I still don't want to go into the last two games with a mathematical chance that we can still finish 6th

Clearly the dream has to be that we can play the reserves against Liverpool ready to stay fresh for the following Wednesday and the Man City game is a hungover, Crystal-Palace-in-'24 style party in the sunshine.

[Smithy]

There are a LOT of permutations, but if we win a couple more in the next 3 league games, I think we'll be pretty much home and dry.  I still don't want to go into the last two games with a mathematical chance that we can still finish 6th

Clearly the dream has to be that we can play the reserves against Liverpool ready to stay fresh for the following Wednesday and the Man City game is a hungover, Crystal-Palace-in-'24 style party in the sunshine.

That would be nice!

[Somniloquism]

There are a LOT of permutations, but if we win a couple more in the next 3 league games, I think we'll be pretty much home and dry.  I still don't want to go into the last two games with a mathematical chance that we can still finish 6th

Clearly the dream has to be that we can play the reserves against Liverpool ready to stay fresh for the following Wednesday and the Man City game is a hungover, Crystal-Palace-in-'24 style party in the sunshine.

If we get to both goals (Final and already in top 5) we should demand that that weekend match should be moved to the previous Wednesday. After all Liverpool and Spurs had their games against us moved to times over our protestations. (If Liverpool get to the FA Cup final it would have to be moved anyway and that is the only free date from what I can see).

[Ads]

If the form we showed yesterday maintains, then I genuinely think it might be done before we play Liverpool, especially if they play like they did the weekend.

Dave describes the absolute dream, only bettered by effectively relegating Spurs.

An away day in Manchester, trophy in hand, that will make Palace look like a meeting of the Temperance Society.

[Dave]

If the form we showed yesterday maintains, then I genuinely think it might be done before we play Liverpool, especially if they play like they did the weekend.

Dave describes the absolute dream, only bettered by effectively relegating Spurs.

Good point. That weekend, we play Spurs, Forest play Chelsea, West Ham play Brenford and Leeds are home to Burnley.

We beat Spurs and Forest beat Chelsea to make us definitely safe for fifth or above, West Ham and Leeds win to put Spurs five points away from safety with three matches to play.

Happy times.