Will we qualify for the CL?

[Pat Mustard]

I will say no we wont qualify and it will be down to not having a flexible enough approach to games and being terrible in games we should have won. 3 points from Leeds and game is on but I think Manure will pip us now much to the spontaneous ejaculations of the sporting press.

It needs Man Utd, Chelsea AND Liverpool to overtake us though - I don't know why this isn't clear to everyone.  Due to games between the competing sides 64 points will still almost certainly be enough to finish in the top 5, which means four more wins and a couple of draws at most (and if we take one of those wins against Liverpool or Chelsea then even 62 points should be enough).  Even on our current run, our form is still significantly better than that.  Instead of thinking negatively, in terms of the outcome the reality is we could have it largely sewn up by next Wednesday with 2 wins.

I think 64 is pitching it too low as a target. Man Utd are 16 points off, Liverpool and Chelsea are 19 points off. So Man Utd can lose five games and still get there, the other two can lose four and still get there.

Chelsea still have to play us, Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool.  To hit 64 points they have to take points in at least two of those games.  Liverpool and Man Utd still play us and each other in addition to Chelsea, so at least one of them drops points in those games too.

You can make an argument that 65 points wouldn't be enough, but only if results go in exactly the right order, and Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd all hit their strongest form for the whole season over the next 11 games.  Also, it's worth remembering that Chelsea and Liverpool are still in Europe and the FA Cup, whilst Man Utd will go over 3 weeks without a competitive match in March/April. All of the teams will also be playing games against sides in the relegation dogfight as well, so none of those will be gimmes either.

[Meanwood Villa]

They could lose all four and still get 64 points by winning six and drawing one of their other seven games.

[Meanwood Villa]

Although they would need to take points off us, agreed.

[paul_e]

They could lose all four and still get 64 points by winning six and drawing one of their other seven games.

Yes, but that's not all that likely. This is why the current statistical projection has us at 97% of finishing in the top 5.

[eamonn]

Seems a bit unlikely though (if it's Chelsea you're talking about - or anyone bar the top two).

[Smithy]

I will say no we wont qualify and it will be down to not having a flexible enough approach to games and being terrible in games we should have won. 3 points from Leeds and game is on but I think Manure will pip us now much to the spontaneous ejaculations of the sporting press.

It needs Man Utd, Chelsea AND Liverpool to overtake us though - I don't know why this isn't clear to everyone.  Due to games between the competing sides 64 points will still almost certainly be enough to finish in the top 5, which means four more wins and a couple of draws at most (and if we take one of those wins against Liverpool or Chelsea then even 62 points should be enough).  Even on our current run, our form is still significantly better than that.  Instead of thinking negatively, in terms of the outcome the reality is we could have it largely sewn up by next Wednesday with 2 wins.

I think 64 is pitching it too low as a target. Man Utd are 16 points off, Liverpool and Chelsea are 19 points off. So Man Utd can lose five games and still get there, the other two can lose four and still get there.

That's how I see it too.  Chelsea had a wobble, but their recent form since the new manager came in is very solid indeed.  Man Utd the same.  Liverpool are inconsistent, but as I've said elsewhere, if that gap is still 6 points when they visit us in the penultimate game, I won't be feeling very confident at all.

We just need back-to-back wins.  From somewhere. I was convinced we'd get back-to-back wins from our 4 Feb fixtures, and that all went to pot.  I think we have to beat one of Chelsea or Man Utd (or draw with both), as losing both of those games and our position will start to look precarious and more like a shoot-out for 5th with Liverpool.

We have four league games until hopefully McGinn and Youri are back (maybe less for McGinn).  If we can get 6 or 7 points from that 12 things will look a lot rosier.  Win 3, and I think we'd be very hard to catch (I mean, for all 3 of them to catch and overtake us).

[eamonn]

Beating Chelsea or Ure without Ginny and Tiels seems a tall order.

[PhilVill]

Beat Wolves, West Ham, Sunderland, Burnley and Spuds, plus a point against Forest and Fulham and that should do, regardless of other teams. But, we have to start games like we finished against Leeds, get the crowd going from the word go.

[Meanwood Villa]

19 points from 11 games is not that far fetched at all. At average points per game it puts you on 65 points so entirely consistent with the total for the season.

I'm talking about other teams here, I'd bite your hand off for us doing that for the rest of the season.

[Pat Mustard]

19 points from 11 games is not that far fetched at all. At average points per game it puts you on 65 points so entirely consistent with the total for the season.

I'm talking about other teams here, I'd bite your hand off for us doing that for the rest of the season.

This is where the head-to-heads come into play though.  If we assume a result either way in Chelsea-Liverpool, for instance, that becomes the other needing 19 points from 10 games, including games against the whole of the top 4 for Chelsea.  A draw leaves both needing 6 wins out of 10 during the toughest part of the season.

19 points from 11 games isn't far fetched for one of them.  It's where you need two of them to do it, whilst Man Utd also get 16 points and they all play each other whilst negotiating other tricky games that it becomes unlikely.