Will we qualify for the CL?

[Brazilian Villain]

Unfortunately, Liverpool seem to be playing Shittingham Shitsville every game for about the next three months. I think they'll be above us when we play them.

I don't think they'll be above us before we play them. If they are to finish above us, they'll likely have to win at Villa Park and hope we lose to Citeh.

[SaddVillan]

Looking at  the remaining games for the top 6 teams and how many times they play each other.

Arsenal 2
Man City 3
Villa  4
Man Utd  3
Chelsea 5
Liverpool 3

Chelsea play EVERYONE, so they have the most number of critical 6 pointers.

[PeterWithesShin]

In the past 6 weeks Liverpool have failed to beat Leeds, Fulham, Burnley and Bournemouth.

[LeeS]

In the past 6 weeks Liverpool have failed to beat Leeds, Fulham, Burnley and Bournemouth.

Yes, but have you not read the gushing reviews of Wirz this morning? He has finally arrived and all is well.

[saint13]

68 seems a bit high. That would mean Liverpool getting 25 points from 12 games, it's not impossible but it would be a massive upswing in form from them.

Even if they do Chelsea would still need 23 and Man Utd 22 and that's with them all to play each other. All 3 of them managing to get at least 67 points from where they are would be highly unlikely. I think 6th will end up with something around 62-63 this year so our immediate target should be 5wins, get that and I'd say we're pretty much guaranteed to finish top 5 and be in the CL next year.

I was looking at some of the historical stats around thsi the other day and I think 66 will be the magic number for 5th.

[saint13]

Unfortunately, Liverpool seem to be playing Shittingham Shitsville every game for about the next three months. I think they'll be above us when we play them.

Yep, they don't play anyone in the top half until mid-April (and even then it's only Everton in 8th), and their next four league games are ALL against teams in the bottom five.  We have to assume Liverpool will have a more than reasonable run in the next few games.  Beating Leeds and Wolves would go a long way to limiting the damage they're likely to do to our lead over them.

I think Chelsea have the most difficult run-in and will miss out barring a collapse from us of course!

[brontebilly]

Leeds at home and Wolves away next two games. They will be scraps as we are running on empty a bit. 6 points and we won't be caught. Could do with a spark from somewhere v Newcastle - Bailey, Tammy, Barkley - somebody else to step up.

[Mellin]

Yeah, we need to make these games against the bottom half count. I don't see us doing too well against Man United and Chelsea without something drastic happening. I'd take 0-0 in both and keeping them at arm's length right now. Two wins and two draws and I think we'll do it.

Don't give a single fuck about the FA Cup. Throw it. That can come later. We're trying to establish ourselves.

[algy]

Don't give a single fuck about the FA Cup. Throw it. That can come later. We're trying to establish ourselves.

I’ve changed my tune on that this week. We may as well go for it - Newcastle have a trip to Azerbaijan a few days after they play us, wheats we have a week off. No reason not to go in for the win there, at which point we’re in the 5th round so only 3 games off the final.

I’d reassess after the 5th round draw, I think we’re probably better off prioritising the league or UEFA Cup if it came down to it, but whilst we don’t have to choose we may as well go for everything we can.