Will we qualify for the CL?

[ChicagoLion]

The “top” clubs receive more CL appearance money than we do because of the “value pillar”
So the financial impact is very significant.

[Smithy]

The “top” clubs receive more CL appearance money than we do because of the “value pillar”
So the financial impact is very significant.

I don't mean it's not a significant amount, it clearly is.  I mean it's less significant to THEM.  Think of it as a proportion of their revenue.  A £100m Champions League campaign would be about 15% of Man Utd's revenue.  To us, that figure goes up to at least 25%, maybe more.  That's what I mean about it being something they can absorb for a year or two, whereas we can't, really - not yet, anyway.

When we're a £500m a year football club, missing out on Champions League will still affect our spending plans, but it will be much less likely to necessitate a fire sale.  If Man Utd miss out, they might be looking at only buying their 2nd or 3rd choice players for a particular position.  If we miss out, we might be looking at having to sell Morgan Rogers to balance the books.  That's the difference today, and the sooner it's no longer a difference, the better.

[ChicagoLion]

Sure, the big difference is that they have the ability to sign duds and still absorb them, we don’t have that luxury.
There was a chart posted on here showing our net spend is £79 million whereas  the others are 4to 500 million over the same period.

[andyh]

There is absolutely no doubt that if we want to grow revenue and therefore improve the team then year on year CL qualification is crucial.
We will grow revenue ‘organically’ with the bigger north stand, the warehouse and improved commercial activities, but it will take years of increased revenue from those routes, to make what is available via CL revenue.

Get into the CL 2 or 3 years in succession and then it becomes self perpetuating. Bigger sponsorship deals, bigger commercial opportunities which leads to better players and being in with a chance of winning stuff, regularly.

Unfortunately, the CL is everything now.

[ADVILLAFAN]

Looking at pur remaining fixtures, half of them are against the current bottom 6 in the table.

Say you average 2 points per game from them, that would have us up to 62. Maybe win 2 of the other 6, so around 68 points.

Probably be enough for top 5.

[PaulWinch again]

I think 68 will be needed.

Last night was a huge result, and gives us a bit of breathing space. The absences are really taking their toll, which is understandable given the quality not available. I really hope Pau is having minutes managed to allow him to play a lot towards the end of the season, because we need his passing quality. If we’re going to do it, we’re going to have to start scoring more freely at home.

[paul_e]

68 seems a bit high. That would mean Liverpool getting 25 points from 12 games, it's not impossible but it would be a massive upswing in form from them.

Even if they do Chelsea would still need 23 and Man Utd 22 and that's with them all to play each other. All 3 of them managing to get at least 67 points from where they are would be highly unlikely. I think 6th will end up with something around 62-63 this year so our immediate target should be 5wins, get that and I'd say we're pretty much guaranteed to finish top 5 and be in the CL next year.

[Pat Mustard]

68 seems a bit high. That would mean Liverpool getting 25 points from 12 games, it's not impossible but it would be a massive upswing in form from them.

Even if they do Chelsea would still need 23 and Man Utd 22 and that's with them all to play each other. All 3 of them managing to get at least 67 points from where they are would be highly unlikely. I think 6th will end up with something around 62-63 this year so our immediate target should be 5wins, get that and I'd say we're pretty much guaranteed to finish top 5 and be in the CL next year.

Completely agree with this.  Looking at the remaining fixtures, and with teams below us playing each other then 6th place is likely to be no more than 64 points at the max, which means 5 wins, or 4 and a few draws.  With Chelsea and Liverpool still to come at home for us, and Man Utd away as well we are very much in charge of our own destiny - I'd say a win in any of those 3 games would make it very difficult for the team we beat to overtake us.

[dave.woodhall]

There's 12 games left and Liverpool need to win three more than us to go above us. If we don't lose to them that's three in eleven and if we blow that sort of lead we don't deserve to qualify.

[rob_bridge]

6 wins will do it. Or 5 wins and 3 draws. Hard as it is with depleted resources but 7points from  next 3 would make it all much easier.

[Dave]

There's 12 games left and Liverpool need to win three more than us to go above us. If we don't lose to them that's three in eleven and if we blow that sort of lead we don't deserve to qualify.

Particularly as Liverpool have won two league games since December.

[cdbearsfan]

Unfortunately, Liverpool seem to be playing Shittingham Shitsville every game for about the next three months. I think they'll be above us when we play them.

[Smithy]

There's 12 games left and Liverpool need to win three more than us to go above us. If we don't lose to them that's three in eleven and if we blow that sort of lead we don't deserve to qualify.

Particularly as Liverpool have won two league games since December.

We were all saying that about Man Utd and Chelsea until they suddenly both hit league-winning form, stringing four back-to-back wins together.  Liverpool are capable of a similar run, even if they don't look like doing it. 

6 wins SHOULD be enough, as it would then mean Liverpool need 26 points from 12 games to overhaul us (which is basically the form they showed when they won the league) - but I think we need those points in the next 10 games, rather than 12, as I would HATE to be playing Liverpool on 17th May with it still mathematically possible for them to overtake us.  Last season's final day still haunts me, and I'd hate to be going to Manchester on the final day again, needing something from the game...

[Smithy]

Unfortunately, Liverpool seem to be playing Shittingham Shitsville every game for about the next three months. I think they'll be above us when we play them.

Yep, they don't play anyone in the top half until mid-April (and even then it's only Everton in 8th), and their next four league games are ALL against teams in the bottom five.  We have to assume Liverpool will have a more than reasonable run in the next few games.  Beating Leeds and Wolves would go a long way to limiting the damage they're likely to do to our lead over them.

[Pat Mustard]

There's 12 games left and Liverpool need to win three more than us to go above us. If we don't lose to them that's three in eleven and if we blow that sort of lead we don't deserve to qualify.

Particularly as Liverpool have won two league games since December.

We were all saying that about Man Utd and Chelsea until they suddenly both hit league-winning form, stringing four back-to-back wins together.  Liverpool are capable of a similar run, even if they don't look like doing it. 

6 wins SHOULD be enough, as it would then mean Liverpool need 26 points from 12 games to overhaul us (which is basically the form they showed when they won the league) - but I think we need those points in the next 10 games, rather than 12, as I would HATE to be playing Liverpool on 17th May with it still mathematically possible for them to overtake us.  Last season's final day still haunts me, and I'd hate to be going to Manchester on the final day again, needing something from the game...

But if Liverpool go on that kind of run then it means they will have had to take points off Chelsea and Man Utd before we meet them.  Chelsea and Man Utd will also have taken points off each other, as well as both playing Arsenal and Chelsea still having Man City to play on top of that.

Any realistic scenario makes 63/64 points almost certainly good enough for fifth, which will be a CL spot.  4/5 wins will be enough, especially if one of them comes in one of the head to head games.