Will we qualify for the CL?

[dave.woodhall]

Let's stop thinking that this team are going to be hard and that team always beat us. We're where we are because of how good we are. Let the others do the worrying.

[tony scott]

Bin the FA Cup?clear round 3 and who knows, when we least expect it, it happens.

[Smithy]

With 5th place likely to secure Champions League football again this season, we're going to have to have a pretty significant drop off in form for two of the three clubs chasing to go past us.  I can see one of them having a very good run at some point - but two of them?

We don't even need to keep winning every game.  They've got to make up 10 points on us over 19 games.  That's a lot.  That's almost 20 points over a full season - it's a significant amount.  Title-winning Liverpool finished 18 points ahead of us last season, for example, so Chelsea would need to replicate Liverpool's title-winning form, while we replicate our 6th place form, for them to get level with us over the rest of the season.  That's pretty unlikely (though not impossible)

That's not to say a short run of winless games won't make us all twitchy, but I'm confident that with a 10-point buffer, and a couple of little reinforcements in January, we will do enough to finish in the top 5.

[Sdwbvf]

10 of the second half of the season are at home too. You'd think 10 more wins from now would be enough and with our home record you'd fancy us to get 7 or 8 of those at home. Then we've got away games at Wolves, Burnley, Forest and Bournemouth currently near the bottom.

And that would be 75 points.

[Dave]

With 5th place likely to secure Champions League football again this season, we're going to have to have a pretty significant drop off in form for two of the three clubs chasing to go past us.  I can see one of them having a very good run at some point - but two of them?

We don't even need to keep winning every game.  They've got to make up 10 points on us over 19 games.  That's a lot.  That's almost 20 points over a full season - it's a significant amount.  Title-winning Liverpool finished 18 points ahead of us last season, for example, so Chelsea would need to replicate Liverpool's title-winning form, while we replicate our 6th place form, for them to get level with us over the rest of the season.  That's pretty unlikely (though not impossible)

That's not to say a short run of winless games won't make us all twitchy, but I'm confident that with a 10-point buffer, and a couple of little reinforcements in January, we will do enough to finish in the top 5.

I imagine we probably have one of the kinder sets of fixtures over the next three months as well. After today, there is probably no more than one or two matches that we won't go into as favourite to win until the penultimate match of the season. Away to Newcastle a few days after Fenerbahce, and Chelsea / Man Utd consecutively at the start of March is really all there is to worry about on paper.

Brentford / Bournemouth / Brighton / Leeds / Wolves in February and West Ham / Forest / Sunderland / Fulham in March and April look like pretty calming runs.

Having Spurs* / Liverpool / Man City in three of the last four games might be a bastard if we're still in touching distance at that point, but not having them in February / March to derail a climb to fourth is pretty useful.

*I know, I know.

[paul_e]

With 5th place likely to secure Champions League football again this season, we're going to have to have a pretty significant drop off in form for two of the three clubs chasing to go past us.  I can see one of them having a very good run at some point - but two of them?

We don't even need to keep winning every game.  They've got to make up 10 points on us over 19 games.  That's a lot.  That's almost 20 points over a full season - it's a significant amount.  Title-winning Liverpool finished 18 points ahead of us last season, for example, so Chelsea would need to replicate Liverpool's title-winning form, while we replicate our 6th place form, for them to get level with us over the rest of the season.  That's pretty unlikely (though not impossible)

That's not to say a short run of winless games won't make us all twitchy, but I'm confident that with a 10-point buffer, and a couple of little reinforcements in January, we will do enough to finish in the top 5.

It isn't 2 clubs that would need to pass us, it's all 3 to push us down to 6th.

[Smithy]

With 5th place likely to secure Champions League football again this season, we're going to have to have a pretty significant drop off in form for two of the three clubs chasing to go past us.  I can see one of them having a very good run at some point - but two of them?

We don't even need to keep winning every game.  They've got to make up 10 points on us over 19 games.  That's a lot.  That's almost 20 points over a full season - it's a significant amount.  Title-winning Liverpool finished 18 points ahead of us last season, for example, so Chelsea would need to replicate Liverpool's title-winning form, while we replicate our 6th place form, for them to get level with us over the rest of the season.  That's pretty unlikely (though not impossible)

That's not to say a short run of winless games won't make us all twitchy, but I'm confident that with a 10-point buffer, and a couple of little reinforcements in January, we will do enough to finish in the top 5.

It isn't 2 clubs that would need to pass us, it's all 3 to push us down to 6th.

You're absolutely right, but until 5th place is mathematically assured a CL place, I'm still erring on the 'worst case scenario' that two of those sides overtaking us could bump us out of the CL places!  The reality, as you point out, is that us being bumped by all three is even less likely

[eye digress]

I asked a few pages back, what half season swings have the Jaudis, ManU or Spurz achieved against us since Unai joined? (Conservatively, I'm assuming that Liverpool and Chelsea overhaul us.) They'll need respectively 16, 10 and 14 points...

If those gaps are maintained after this round of games, then I think I'll be in the 'nailed on' camp.