Will we qualify for the CL?

[Monty]

5th won't be enough with the Spurs mutants stinking the Champions League out.

Yeah, there's no recent history to point to of poor Spurs sides doing well in Europe.

Beating Frodo Baggins in front of 9 whalers and their polar bear, before a game so excruciatingly low in quality you could barely watch is not to me a sign they're going to go toe to toe with PSG and do it for the coefficient.

But you have your achsually moment.

They don't have to go toe-to-toe with PSG though, they need to beat the teams from pots 3 and 4, so the likes of Slavia Prague, Ajax, Olympiacos, etc. 3 wins an 2 draws get you to knockout and even Newcastle and Spurs should be able to manage that. If they do, and assuming we have 3-4 teams get into the semi finals (as is usual) then that should be enough for the 5th spot.

We're in the Unai Trophy this year anyway, so we might not need the league.

[Meanwood Villa]

We don't win trophies.

We'll finish 3rd and lose the final.

[paul_e]

I'm pretty sure the only times England don't get the highest coefficient is when there are more English teams in Europe so it doesn't bode well.

but the change in format helps us out more than many other leagues because our lower ranked teams used to get drawn in groups like (Newcastle, Milan, PSG, Dortmund) and end up getting a kicking but now even if they do get those 3 it's only 1 game each and there are 5 more games, 4 of which are against lower ranked sides.

The money in the premier league means the strength in depth as you go down towards midtable is much higher than you see in any other league and even relegation battlers and newly promoted sides are able to out spend all but a handful of teams elsewhere. For example, Oviedo came up through the playoffs into la liga and have spent £11m-ish - Sunderland have spent £130m from the same position.

English sides have to fail spectacularly to not make at least the play off round, honestly we should see 7-8 teams in the knockouts most seasons in the new format, purely because of our financial advantages.

[Ads]

Man City struggled to. Spurs are shite. We'll need to finish 4th and/or win the Europa League.

I'm in favour of and.

[paul_e]

Man City struggled to. Spurs are shite. We'll need to finish 4th and/or win the Europa League.

I'm in favour of and.

Struggled to, and then did anyway, despite being shit, which kinda backs up my point, even a poor run saw them get 14.75 coefficient points and not be a significant drag on the national total. Every stat you can find backs up the idea that, with this new format, England should be top most seasons, regardless of how many places we have. the 2nd spot will then generally rotate between Spain, Italy and Germany who will all suffer a little with the extra teams because they have some absolute dross finishing in 7th and 8th in their leagues and those teams really are at risk of bombing out (just like Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Bologna, Girona and Hoffenheim did last year).

[cdbearsfan]

I doubt it will be either as I think we are dividing points earned by 9 rather then 7 or 8 and we have teams like Forest, Newcastle and Palace in there as well as Spurs.

This is true, everyone in Europe needs to be on it this year to maintain the extra CL place. I’d imagine us and Forest will do well in the EL and also Palace in the ECL it all depends on how Spuds and Newcastle do in the CL.

It would be quite a surprise if they didn’t both make it to at least the play-off round.

Unless someone really screws it, I'd be surprised if England didnt have the fifth place again next year.

If England had nine qualifiers last season, and the two extra teams had got zero coefficient points each, England would still have got the extra Champions League place from finishing in the top two places.

On the one hand, England should be slightly weaker on average this season, because of the extra teams. One the other hand, though, the extra teams mean that if one or two underperform it isn't as bad for the average as would be the case if you have fewer teams.

Tl;dr. I would be surprised if England doesn't have (at least) five Champions League teams next season.

[Somniloquism]

The concern is the points are divided by 9 instead of 7-8 like Germany, Italy, France and Spain. It does have a knock-on, especially if one or two teams go out early on.

Last season Germany and Italy who both had extra teams compared to England and Spain didn't qualify for the extra place. England did slaughter it points wise with two competitions won and an all England final in one. Last season 29 points with 7 teams only equals 23 points with 9 so we would need a very similar finish again to gurantee a 5th place CL.

[Demitri_C]

Cant see it this season unless we get another 2 or 3 in

[cdbearsfan]

The "extra" teams are Chelsea and Tottenham. The former have just twatted PSG while the latter won the Europa League. It would be a surprise if they don't do better than the likes of Bologna and RB Leipzig managed last season, let's be honest.

[Ads]

It's fucking Spurs though. Not even Spurs fans rely on Spurs.

[paul_e]

It's fucking Spurs though. Not even Spurs fans rely on Spurs.

No one is relying on them though, jut pointing out that even at their most spursy they should be able to win a couple of games against some of the dross in pot 3 and 4.

[paul_e]

The concern is the points are divided by 9 instead of 7-8 like Germany, Italy, France and Spain. It does have a knock-on, especially if one or two teams go out early on.

Last season Germany and Italy who both had extra teams compared to England and Spain didn't qualify for the extra place. England did slaughter it points wise with two competitions won and an all England final in one. Last season 29 points with 7 teams only equals 23 points with 9 so we would need a very similar finish again to gurantee a 5th place CL.

Only if the 2 extra teams lose every game, if you get a few wins and squeeze into the playoff round you get about 14 points, which would nudge that average up, meaning even getting a couple of teams into the semi-finals would be enough unless all the other spots are teams from 2 other nations.

[Keeno]

My prediction for us this season is 5th. Hopefully that will be enough for CL. I think the top 3 seem fairly set, but below that it's a bit of a moving feast - very similar to last year, there may only be a few points separating 4-7th by the end of the year again as we're all quite similar strength.

I think the slightly lower-pressure Europa League nights, especially in the first half of the season, where we can rotate more, will hopefully prevent that mid-season dip that we had last year and play into our advantage.

Chelsea and Newcastle both have that heavy CL league-phase schedule where they're unlikely to rotate their first XI as much. And Newcastle have had a shocking summer, and may still lose Isak (at the very best they'll have an unhappy player on their hands). If he goes, they're in big trouble at this stage of the summer.

[Somniloquism]

Chelsea will be interesting as in theory they are in the same boat as us in that the A-list changes are limited, but last season they had mostly lower players in there and currently have only recovered £80-90m of a £240mil spend. So which players get registered?

Edit: Mudryk is on their A list so that is one who has to come off but wouldn't be able to be sold.

[Drummond]

Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea have all strengthened from positions of already being strong.

Newcastle haven't done much and have to worry about Champs League again. Tottenham have a new manager, a broadly similar squad and no Maddison to drive them forward.

Man Utd have strengthened but not got rid of their deadwood, yet.

I'd say 5th place is realistic for us. Higher is possible, hoping that one of the Top 4 have a bad year.

Forest will be top half, and other than that it's all a bit meh.