Will we qualify for the CL?

[PaulWinch again]

We could well be 1pt behind Arsenal going into the last game of the season…

I really hope we aren't.

Indeed, we need them beating Newcastle.

[PaulWinch again]

Ruben Dias sounds pretty rattled.

[PeterWithesShin]

In fairness to him Guardiola disagreed with Dias.

[Mellin]

Yeah, Guardiola isn't an idiot. Dias is talking bollocks.

[darren woolley]

I'll be looking forward to more European games whichever competition we are in.

[eamonn]

Saints' groundsman rang up 5 Live's 606 phone-in to tell Sutton and Cabbage that the ground had been irrigated all morning and if Días had wanted a wetter pitch, it would have meant him getting soaked between 3-5pm.

[Hookeysmith]

Let's just smash the living fuck out of Spurs

[tomd2103]

I’m looking at the remaining games now, trying to work out who’s doing what and when.

Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.

Arsenal's remaining fixtures

May 11: Liverpool (a)
May 18: Newcastle (h)
May 25: Southampton (a)

Manchester City's remaining fixtures

May 20: Bournemouth (h)
May 25: Fulham (a)

Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures

May 11: Leicester (h)
May 18: West Ham (a)
May 25: Chelsea (h)

Newcastle's remaining fixtures

May 11: Chelsea (h)
May 18: Arsenal (a)
May 25: Everton (h)

Chelsea's remaining fixtures

May 11: Newcastle (a)
May 16: Man Utd (h)
May 25: Nottingham Forest (a)

Aston Villa's remaining fixtures

May 18: Spurs (h)
May 25: Man United (a)


We’re lucky that we don’t have to play any of the other Top 7 in the last 2 games, and Man City and Forest *probably* have the easiest run in out of the bunch.

The hardest is a 3 way split between Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle.

I’m not sure a draw tomorrow would be the very worst result given those remaining fixtures, but, I think potentially we could see Arsenal being pulled back into the mix a bit more too.

Man City probably have done enough now. But as we saw v Southampton today, who knows.

Maybe this will be a bit clearer come tomorrow evening!!

I have been thinking that a draw between Chelsea and Newcastle might be the best result for us, but actually now slightly leaning to a Chelsea win.  That means we'll be on the same points as Newcastle and will go 3 points ahead of them if we win on Friday night.  Big pressure then on them at Arsenal and would mean that a defeat there and we'd be 3 points ahead of them going into the last game.

Hoping Leicester can pick themselves up and get so.ething out of their game with Forest. 

[stevo_st]

From the Beeb…. “Statisticians Opta give Arsenal a 99.7% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
They give a 91.2% chance for City, 69.4% for Newcastle and 67.9% for Chelsea.
For Forest it's 37.8% and for Villa it's 34.2%”

Ours is up from 15.5% - guess it might double again if we beat Spurs.

[stevo_st]

A draw between Chelsea and Newcastle has to be the preferred result assuming we need two wins to have a chance.

[saint13]

Sadly I think we will come 6th and miss out on goal difference.

However, yesterday was massive as it was the game where I thought we would slip up.

I think the "best" outcome for us is Manure win the Europa League and they go on the piss for 2 days, meaning the Sunday game v us is a nothing game for them and a potential Champions League celebration for both teams if we win.

We will then just have to wait and hope on the other results.

[algy]

Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.

A draw would be perfect, it’s the same as them both losing at this point.

If they draw, they are both 1pt ahead of us (plus a much better goal difference). From the remaining 2 games, we can all either get 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, or 0 points.

Assume for the moment we win both of our games - we get 6pts (finish on 69pts)

If they win both of their games, they get 6pts and finish on 70pts. We finish behind them

If they don’t, they get a maximum of 4pts and so finish on 68pts. We finish ahead of them.

The only reason to want one of them to lose is if we thought we could catch up the goal difference (as that’d mean both teams could still finish on 69pts). But as finishing above them in that instance would involve us winning both of our games by cricket scores …

[Dave]

I think the "best" outcome for us is Manure win the Europa League and they go on the piss for 2 days, meaning the Sunday game v us is a nothing game for them and a potential Champions League celebration for both teams if we win.

As DW suggests upthread, if they do win the final, spend two days on the piss and then know that losing to us could stop one of Arsenal, Man City or Chelsea qualifying next season you can imagine them not being too upset to lose to us.

Just another reason to reluctantly prefer a Man Utd win over a Spurs win in the final.

[Nii Lamptey]

In answer to the forum topic..... Why yes. Yes we will.

[Nii Lamptey]

Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work out or who I want to win out of Chelsea or Newcastle.

A draw would be perfect, it’s the same as them both losing at this point.

If they draw, they are both 1pt ahead of us (plus a much better goal difference). From the remaining 2 games, we can all either get 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, or 0 points.

Assume for the moment we win both of our games - we get 6pts (finish on 69pts)

If they win both of their games, they get 6pts and finish on 70pts. We finish behind them

If they don’t, they get a maximum of 4pts and so finish on 68pts. We finish ahead of them.

The only reason to want one of them to lose is if we thought we could catch up the goal difference (as that’d mean both teams could still finish on 69pts). But as finishing above them in that instance would involve us winning both of our games by cricket scores …

Perfectly put Algy. We need points slip ups from the other teams, goal difference is a write off. It's basically shit or bust for us.