Will we qualify for the CL?

[JJ-AV]

I don't think we'll do it tbh, but we can probably afford to lose one of Man City and Newcastle should we win one.

I think Forest losing is a big thing for us - I fancied us to finish ahead of Chelsea but not Man City/Newcastle, Forest suddenly look like they could be caught which even after beating them felt unrealistic as they played quite well. They've some decent games too.

If we can beat Newcastle then we're probably 4 wins from doing it. But we have to beat Newcastle, which is arguably a bigger game than PSG now in some ways...

[Rigadon]

Be interesting to see if Chelsea put Ipswich away like we did Southampton yesterday, and to see how Tindel gets on without Howe. 

[AV82EC]

What are those Opta Stats looking like now.

[eye digress]

I don't think we'll do it tbh, but we can probably afford to lose one of Man City and Newcastle should we win one.

I think Forest losing is a big thing for us - I fancied us to finish ahead of Chelsea but not Man City/Newcastle, Forest suddenly look like they could be caught which even after beating them felt unrealistic as they played quite well. They've some decent games too.

If we can beat Newcastle then we're probably 4 wins from doing it. But we have to beat Newcastle, which is arguably a bigger game than PSG now in some ways...

I think a total haul of 64 or 65 points is the most likely outcome for us - 3 wins and 1 or 2 draws. And even that will be with a titanic effort.

[Rigadon]

I don't get why people think it's unlikely?  What am I missing?

[Clampy]

No, i don't get it either. A few weeks ago some people were saying we had left it too late when we clearly hadn't. 

[Mellin]

Definition of unlikely is less than half. Mathematically it's unlikely as we are in fifth and the two teams below us have one point less, but one and two games in hand and PPG ratios of 1.71 and 1.77 respectively.

A few weeks ago it was very unlikely, so it's getting there. Keep winning and we'll be fine. Don't and we won't.

[Max Villan]

If we beat Newcastle, I can see it happening. Chelsea play Forest and Newcastle in the run in which works out well for us. We owe Newcastle a good result as well.

[SoccerHQ]

Main formula now is to get 7 points from the three VP games left.

We have taken at least a point from every single league  and CL game from late August and that is over 20 games so no reason not to be confident on that.

Gets us to 61 points and then it is a case of getting two away wins.

I think 67 points will be enough. Go back two months and Bournemouth away would've been very difficult to win but they're now on their lovely beach having lost to Wolves and Ipswich recently so that should be easier to win than Brentford was.

I also have a feeling that is probably deluded but we're finally going to turn up in Manchester and play well this season. Man. City could be another Arsenal performance from the run in last season when we were brilliant second half. Everyone on here would take playing them in the run in without Rodri and Haaland around.

The main thing is we're ahead of Forest and Chelsea going into the final day as they play each other so would pretty much guarantee finishing above one of them and then it's a case of beating Man. United at Old Trafford to make CL....easy peasey based on their general home record this year....o.k perhaps not!

They might be in the Europa league final which would be the Wednesday before so that would impact their team selection.

[Tony Daleys Shorts]

Sounds like a piece of piss when you put it like that Soccer HQ. I’m on board, I think we’ll finish 5th.

[Percy McCarthy]

No, i don't get it either. A few weeks ago some people were saying we had left it too late when we clearly hadn't.

Maybe people were looking at our league position rather than the small number of points we needed to make up, which I thought was an overly pessimistic way of viewing things. A bit like how people wrote off our chances last season while failing to realise that Spurs were nailed on to lose most of their games.

[Dave]

Definition of unlikely is less than half. Mathematically it's unlikely as we are in fifth and the two teams below us have one point less, but one and two games in hand and PPG ratios of 1.71 and 1.77 respectively.

A few weeks ago it was very unlikely, so it's getting there. Keep winning and we'll be fine. Don't and we won't.

Yup.

It's gone from "very unlikely" shortly after the Palace game, and as each win is ticked off the scales move.

Right now I reckon we're sitting somewhere around "quite possible" on that scale. Beat Newcastle on Saturday and it'll move to "a really good chance". Beat Man City and we'll be up to "quite likely".

[PeterWithesShin]

The time most people thought we wouldn't was when we were conceding for fun, had won 1 in 7 drawing at home to 10 man Ipswich and being twatted by Palace and Wolves, and had played more games than anyone else. It wasn't overly negative thinking at that time.

[Percy McCarthy]

The time most people thought we wouldn't was when we were conceding for fun, had won 1 in 7 drawing at home to 10 man Ipswich and being twatted by Palace and Wolves, and had played more games than anyone else. It wasn't overly negative thinking at that time.

In a period of 6 wins, 5 draws (including 2 v Arse and Liverpool) and 3 defeats though.

[Steve67]

Whilst I'm a grumpy fecker and think we won't do it, it is in our hands with Newcastle and Man City to play.  Previously, we also had Bournemouth ahead of us and they have since dropped away dramatically, hope Forest do the same.  It's exciting to see us in form, with the squad that we have and for people to be talking seriously about us.  Goal difference might come back to haunt us.