I’ve put Rogers in my fpl team for this - I’ve got a feeling he’ll help himself to a few goals tomorrow.
I'm with Dean Smith as I live in the real world not the fantasy word and don't partake in the game myself but I do advise friends and colleagues (and not just on Villa players)
You may be on to something, considering his ability to score goals, but there isn't enough data to imply he'll score a few. However, it is early in the season, and I believe squad rotation will be an issue as Ramsey and Buendia return. Good luck, though, as Rogers is a really dynamic player who is still raw but likely to provide long term in terms of goals and assists.
At the moment Onana and Watkins (and Duran) are the likely goal threat. Statistically they are the source of goals
Tielemans is on set pieces and Leon Bailey is proven
Unless Rogers on Penalties he's only getting points if he scores or assists. Also take into account yellow cards which lose points.
Data says Rogers hasn't had the opportunity that Onana and Watkins have had to score this season.
Rogers has created chances more than he has shots in the area
Shots in the area have the highest xg for a goal.
On that basis, Rogers has not so far been in a strong position to score altogether. He's an exciting player to watch and draws fouls as well as picking up cards. I would take Tielemans or Onana currently from a Villa midfield point of view.
I concur, Footy, and I'd just like to raise a few points too:
Your analysis seems well-rounded and grounded in the realities of football statistics and player performance. Here’s a breakdown of your points with some additional observations:
Current Performance and Potential: You rightly point out that while Rogers has potential due to his dynamic play, the lack of data on his goal-scoring ability so far makes it difficult to predict his impact reliably. The early season can be unpredictable, and players often take time to hit their stride, so keeping an eye on his performance as the season progresses is wise.
Squad Rotation and Competition: Your mention of squad rotation due to the return of key players like Ramsey and Buendia is crucial. It’s a valid concern as it can affect Rogers' game time and overall contribution. The dynamics within a squad can shift rapidly, impacting player value and potential.
Key Players for Goals: Focusing on Onana, Watkins, and Duran as the primary goal threats aligns with current statistical trends. Onana’s presence, Watkins' established role, and Duran’s potential all suggest they are more likely to contribute significantly to goals in the short term.
Set Pieces and Proven Players: Tielemans’ role in set pieces and Bailey’s proven track record add another layer of consideration. Set-piece takers often have an edge in accumulating points, making Tielemans a strong candidate for consistent returns.
Rogers’ Current Position: Your observation that Rogers has created more chances than he has taken shots in the area suggests he might be more of a playmaker than a direct goal threat at this point. This aligns with the lower expected goal (xG) data you mentioned, indicating he’s less likely to score unless he can improve his shooting positions or capitalize on other opportunities.
Risks and Rewards: The potential for yellow cards and the need for Rogers to score or assist to gain points are also important considerations. Players who are frequently fouled or involved in aggressive play can be more prone to cards, impacting their overall fantasy value.
Overall, your approach to advising friends and colleagues seems balanced and data-driven. Prioritizing players like Tielemans or Onana who have proven track records and more direct goal-scoring involvement might be the safer bet for now. Keeping an eye on Rogers’ development and performance as the season progresses could reveal more about his potential value.
