Champions League Contention

[KRS]

I’m guilty of that as much as the next man and still on the edge, but this “magic number” thing has made me relax and accept it all a whole lot easier without obsessing, overthinking and stressing about every permutation in the results of the remaining games.

I invite you all to start thinking about and looking forward to Thursday…

[villa for life]

Bookies have us 1/40 and them 19/1 for 4th.

Which bookies is offering 19-1?

[LeeS]

I’ve bet £50 on 12-1. Now I need me some of that 19-1 just to take the edge off my nerves.

[Richard E]

16-1 now

[mike]

If we get one point from our last four games and Spurs win their last three they'll deserve to finish above us.

Particularly as they have to play Man City. The only unfavourable variable that seems vaguely likely to me is a draw against Man City which would bring it down to GD. I don’t think that’s likely but it’s possible. Obviously morel favourable unlikely variables are also possible.

[PaulWinch again]

I think we’ll do it, basically we need one result in 5 games to go our way and Spurs need 5 favourable results.

If I were to err on the more negative side though - can I see us losing to Liverpool at home and Palace away? Based on current form absolutely yes.

At the same time, in spite of current form can I see Spurs beating Burnley at home and Sheff Utd away? Absolutely yes. In which case it comes down Spurs playing Citeh at home. It’s unlikely they’d win that, but they have a weirdly strong record against them.

Like I say, I think we’ll get it, but it’s not hard to see a plausible route for Spurs.

[DB]

If we get one point from our last four games and Spurs win their last three they'll deserve to finish above us.

Indeed. They are not exactly in form at the moment are they to chase down these 7 points.

[SoccerHQ]

The hilarious thing is pretty much all of their fanbase don't want them to get anything v Man. City as all Arsenal would then need to do is win their remaining two games and they win the league bar some big Man. City wins in the other two.

It's good we still have a 7 point gap as that basically makes their games v Burnley and Sheffield United insignificant.

They're also defending hopelessly currently so hard to see how Man. City don't stick three past them, they'll just have Foden and Walker exposing their LB like Salah did for the first hour today.

It's not a terrible situation if we have to rely on Man. City beating Spurs, it really isn't. And even then we will surely play better at Palace than today so I'm still hopeful we'll get the result we need from that game if it means something.

[villa for life]

I’m worried. However, the really ironic thing is spurs fans are probably looking over their shoulders and feeling just as worries. If they lose to man city and drop points against either of burnley or Sheffield United, they could potentially drop to 7th.

[Toronto Villa]

I'm not saying it's impossible, but why waste time worrying about a scenario unlikely to haapen, it's unhealthy and much like Spurs, pointless.

Because I can't help it!

The test if you doubt us finishing the job or in us fucking it up depending on your vantage point, is would you stick a substantial amount of money on it happening? Or another way, if you were a Spurs fan in their position on the back of 4 straight losses, are you confident in overtaking Villa with three games left and Man City yet to play?

[PaulWinch again]

No not really, but if it was Villa in their situation I could probably talk myself into believing (not intended to provoke anguish…) that basically Burnley and Sheff Utd is 6 points and then it comes down to Citeh at home, unlikely but not impossible. Plus if Spurs were playing Liverpool at home and Palace away I could see them losing both.

I don’t think it’ll happen, I suspect they’ll lose to Citeh but I’d still have hope they other way round.

[PeterWithesShin]

Even i'd struggle to be confident if we were in their position.

[Lastfootstamper]

I'm fuming. Thanks to spurs utter ineptitude we can no longer sneak third. Useless wankers, as ever.

[Toronto Villa]

If I was a Spurs fan who collectively have fired Ange and are again burning effigies of Levy, I’d be wondering how many Burnley and Sheff Utd will score against us and then tripling that number for Man City.

[PaulWinch again]

I'm fuming. Thanks to spurs utter ineptitude we can no longer sneak third. Useless wankers, as ever.

Ermmmmm I think we ended those hopes with our result earlier in the day.