Champions League Contention

[Smithy]

Bookmakers are guessing what people will bet on then responding to the bets they've encouraged. They're not psychic football octopuses!

Then you should definitely bet against them. You'll make a fortune!

[Monty]

Don't bet, but if I did, yeah, I'd put some money against us. Not because (for what must be the twelfth time by now) I don't think we're favourites, but I don't think we're as nailed on as some think. Football is the chaos dimension with a ball in it, it's so much closer than it looks, and the weekend performances - particularly thinking about tiredness - weren't as favourable to us as the results (which were marginally favourable).

[Dave]

Well look, I mean, obviously we're favourites after their defeat at the weekend. What I'm saying is I don't think we ought to be favourites by as much as the bookies say. I thought Spurs actually played pretty well and are perfectly capable of getting two results from Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool, while we really looked abysmal and, most worryingly, tired. It's really not over yet.

The question you have to ask yourself is this: have ALL the bookmakers, every single one of them, and their dispassionate assessment of every team's chances, "got it wrong".  Or have you, as a Villa fan worried about the next three weeks, slighty over-estimated the chances of our nearest rivals and the only team who can take Champions League away from us?

As a counterpoint, the likelihood of England getting the extra Champions League place was seen by the bookmakers as about the same as our chances of getting fourth place in the league.

It just take a couple of things to not quite go as expected and things change.

[Exeter 77]

Does Bayern Munich's draw last night finally kill off 5th being a Champions League place?

[Risso]

Well look, I mean, obviously we're favourites after their defeat at the weekend. What I'm saying is I don't think we ought to be favourites by as much as the bookies say. I thought Spurs actually played pretty well and are perfectly capable of getting two results from Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool, while we really looked abysmal and, most worryingly, tired. It's really not over yet.

The question you have to ask yourself is this: have ALL the bookmakers, every single one of them, and their dispassionate assessment of every team's chances, "got it wrong".  Or have you, as a Villa fan worried about the next three weeks, slighty over-estimated the chances of our nearest rivals and the only team who can take Champions League away from us?

However, until the last round of matches, the bookmakers had very strong odds that it would be England getting the 5th Champions League spot. Then everybody except us shit the bed, and the likely outcome and odds span on their head.

With so few games left, and neither us or Spurs being exactly consistent, anything is still possible. I expect us to do it, and think we will. But a win for Spurs tonight and a loss for us at the weekend, and things and (bookmakers odds) would look very different. Anything other than a win for Spurs combined with a win for us, and we'll be even stronger favourites.


edit: beaten to exactly the same point by Dave.

[CT Villan]

Football is the chaos dimension with a ball in it

Except Newton's little-known Fourth Law of Entropy states that "Chaos can never exist if Emery potential is present". As such, we will finish 4th and Spurs will disappear up their own arseholes.

[Monty]

Football is the chaos dimension with a ball in it

Except Newton's little-known Fourth Law of Entropy states that "Chaos can never exist if Emery potential is present". As such, we will finish 4th and Spurs will disappear up their own arseholes.

Newton was very demanding in imposing his idea.

[Richard E]

Having slept on the weekend’s results, I woke up on Monday morning convinced that we are going to do it. So if nobody could pee on my chips, so that I can remain in that state of serenity, that’d be great.

[Meanwood Villa]

Does Bayern Munich's draw last night finally kill off 5th being a Champions League place?

No but one more win, or two draws, by German teams does. And that's assuming we win every match.

[edgysatsuma89]

Don't bet, but if I did, yeah, I'd put some money against us. Not because (for what must be the twelfth time by now) I don't think we're favourites, but I don't think we're as nailed on as some think. Football is the chaos dimension with a ball in it, it's so much closer than it looks, and the weekend performances - particularly thinking about tiredness - weren't as favourable to us as the results (which were marginally favourable).

I completely agree, Monty. We're very obviously favourites, but I wouldn't bet on either side. If we didn't look so shattered (mentally/physically) I'd agree with the bookies. I've got a feeling some of the chaos will come with Burnley doing us a favour.

[Smithy]

I think all the pessimism (my own included) comes from the fact this is all very new to us.  We are sat here expecting our team to perform like a top 4 side on the pitch, while we're behaving like a mid-table fanbase off it.  Do you think if the roles were reversed, Spurs fans would be worrying about us and thinking the bookies have got it wrong?

I still think the bookies have got it about right, with us at about 87% chance of finishing in the top 4.  Of COURSE there is the 13% chance that Spurs somehow beat Chelsea, Liverpool AND Man City, or that we entirely shit the bed and they beat one of them AND both Sheff Utd and Burnley, but it feels like an awful lot has to go right for them, and an awful lot has to go wrong for us.

Until it's mathematically impossible for us to be caught, I'll still have those nagging doubts in my mind, but right now I'm feeling pretty positive - because I believe that regardless of what Spurs do, Unai can wring a couple more results out of this squad - if we need them.

[dave.woodhall]

We're 1/6 to finish in the top four. Spurs are 9/2.

If spurs beat chelsea you will see those odds slash drastically

4 points is very small when you consider they would get 6 from burnley amd sheff utd. We will need to win at least one more game to make sure we do it

Cant see us beating liverpool as we havent beaten them at villa paek since that 7-2 with no fans. Its been a while since we beat them with fans at villa park.

That leaves brighton and palace one win out of those two and i think we should be good for CL

Remind me - how many times have we played Liverpool at home since then, and how many of them were with a team this good?

[LeeS]

The Brighton game is huge. Of the 3 games we have left it represents the best chance of 3 points. I really don't want to be going to Crystal Palace needing to better the Spurs result at an already beached Sheffield United.

Its all too much for my nerves as it is.

[PeterWithesShin]

We hadn't beaten Man City at home for yonks, we haven't been 4th this late in a season for yonks. It's time to stop thinking up reasons why every game we play there's a good chance we'll lose.

[Risso]

It's entirely possible that Spurs won't beat the points total we've got now.