Champions League Contention

[Baldy]

Thanks Percy, that explains position nicely.

[tomd2103]

Here’s an article from ESPN that gets updated as the points are clocked up:

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/39054486/the-race-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league

Thanks for posting, as that makes it really clear.  Am I right then in thinking that we just need Arsenal or Man City to match or better the German clubs, Liverpool to match or better Leverkusen and then it will be down to us secure the spot?

[stevo_st]

Seems pretty clear to me, finish 4th and let someone else worry about the maths

[Dave]

Here’s an article from ESPN that gets updated as the points are clocked up:

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/39054486/the-race-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league

Thanks for posting, as that makes it really clear.  Am I right then in thinking that we just need Arsenal or Man City to match or better the German clubs, Liverpool to match or better Leverkusen and then it will be down to us secure the spot?

That's correct. But then, we've been saying exactly that on this thread since the end of the last round.

Although if by "down to us to secure the spot" you mean finish at least fifth, then yes. If you mean "do well in Europe to get England more coefficient points", we could lose both matches to Lille and as long the other three clubs do what they need to do then England will still finish ahead of Germany. Which could let France back in, but PSG's loss makes it even harder for them.

[Smithy]

Here’s an article from ESPN that gets updated as the points are clocked up:

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/39054486/the-race-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league

Thanks for posting, as that makes it really clear.  Am I right then in thinking that we just need Arsenal or Man City to match or better the German clubs, Liverpool to match or better Leverkusen and then it will be down to us secure the spot?

Not quite, almost, but not quite.  Germany's score is divided by 7, ours is divided by 8.  So English teams "matching" the German teams would actually mean Germany going ahead.  A point for a win is worth more to the German coefficient than it is to the English one.  How much difference it makes, depends on how far they get. I'm sure someone can do the maths on those permutations.

I don't think it will go that far, though.  I think both German sides could go out of the CL this round, though I think Leverkusen could win the Europa League.

We're definitely favourites right now, but Leverkusen and Bayern putting West Ham and Arsenal out would put a very different complexion on it.  If Liverpool win home and away against Atlanta, and we can get through against Lille, it will look a LOT healthier, as it's no longer matters which competition the teams are in, wins count the same across all competitions.

[Drummond]

Let's just finish top 4, win the Conference, hope English teams get to finals and semis, and lose, so we are the only ones with a European trophy.

I'm pleased we're aiming for it, as I want to finish as high as possible (obviously), but the priority for me is still actually winning something.

[Smithy]

Let's just finish top 4, win the Conference, hope English teams get to finals and semis, and lose, so we are the only ones with a European trophy.

I'm pleased we're aiming for it, as I want to finish as high as possible (obviously), but the priority for me is still actually winning something.

Can you imagine if in August someone told you we'd lose three important first-team players to ACL injuries, and still be in contention for a top-four finish, AND in the quarter-finals of the Euro conference league.  I'd have snapped your hand off.

Another five weeks, that's all we need. Five weeks of injury-free, calamity-free performances, and we could be looking at a generation-defining season. It's not too much to ask for, is it?

[eamonn]

And there's no way we can catch Italy?

Atalanta will likely get knocked-out by Liverpool next week and one of Milan/Roma will also be eliminated as they are playing each other in the Europa QFs.

[Somniloquism]

And there's no way we can catch Italy?

Atalanta will likely get knocked-out by Liverpool next week and one of Milan/Roma will also be eliminated as they are playing each other in the Europa QFs.

The article is saying it is unlikely Italy not getting the other spot because for England to finish above them, they would need to beat the Germans, and for the Germans to finish above them, they would have knocked out the English.

[PeterWithesShin]

If we catch Italy we'll have already caught Germany.

[Smithy]

And there's no way we can catch Italy?

Atalanta will likely get knocked-out by Liverpool next week and one of Milan/Roma will also be eliminated as they are playing each other in the Europa QFs.

Italy are like being top of the league by two points on the final day of the season, but with 2nd and 3rd place teams playing each other on the final day.  Technically, either of those teams could overtake you and pip you to first place, but you're guaranteed a place in the top two, whatever happens (which is all Italy needs for the extra place).

So yes, we could get ahead of Italy, but we don't need to.

[tomd2103]

Seems pretty clear to me, finish 4th and let someone else worry about the maths

We're Aston Villa and 1996 Coca Cola Cup final aside, we don't do simple!!

[PaulWinch again]

How doomed is 5th place now?

[BC Villain]

How doomed is 5th place now?

Looks a long shot now

[itbrvilla]

How doomed is 5th place now?

really need arsenal to do us a favour but can't see it.