Champions League Contention

[Brazilian Villain]

Quick update from the Opta Analysts.

[Footy-Vill]

I am very unhappy not to win the match against Brentford, especially because we were leading 2-0. It all seemed so good with the game and the potential for more and improving the GD. However the result of 3-3 and a draw gives us a 3 point advantage over Spurs rather than a 5 point lead.

I believe there could be further unexpected results in the battle for fourth place between us and Spurs, and I will not give up hope of finishing fourth.
The fifth-place finish and if it makes a Champions League place will become clearer in the coming weeks so it's all to play for now with 6 games to go.

[PaulWinch again]

I am very unhappy not to win the match against Brentford, especially because we were leading 2-0. It all seemed so good with the game and the potential for more and improving the GD. However the result of 3-3 and a draw gives us a 3 point advantage over Spurs rather than a 5 point lead.

I believe there could be further unexpected results in the battle for fourth place between us and Spurs, and I will not give up hope of finishing fourth.
The fifth-place finish and if it makes a Champions League place will become clearer in the coming weeks so it's all to play for now with 6 games to go.

Who knew your foresight wasn’t foresight….

[PaulWinch again]

The thing that is most likely to kill us in terms of 4th is how frequently we just stop playing in games. It’s not our level dropping a bit, it falls off a cliff. Unai is brilliant but he has failed to address that, I don’t know if it’s tactical or lack of leadership on the pitch, or something else but it happens so often. We end up conceding far too many goals as a result.

[Keeno]

Just gonna drop a variant of what I posted in the post-match in here, cause it's worth repeating/discussing as a bit of a tonic to potential headloss.

For 5th place: Man United are 12 points back with 1 of their games in hand against Liverpool with 19 worse goal diff. West Ham are 12 back on the same games as us with 21 worse goal diff.

Both of these teams would need to win 5/7 or 6/6 games to even land on the same points as us if we win 1 more game this season and lost all the others. Of course in that scenario we'll still finish above them both cause of G/D. Also - fundamentally, both these teams are shit. They've jammed their way to a half decent number of wins and they're not suddenly going to turn into the Invincibles.

Barring total collapse from here on out, and basically a never-before-seen points swing, it will be Europa next season.

For CL, Spurs would go 3 clear of us, on the same games played, if they win their game in hand which is away at Chelsea - which is far from a freebie. It's still neck and neck - fully expect us to be battling it out on the final day against them. Disappointing as today was we didn't lose and it's far from done. Stressful but fun to be involved in this kind of battle at the right end of the table!

[Villan82]

Keeno, that is one of the best posts I have read on here. Well said, great post.

[PaulWinch again]

Thing is our actual level of performance has been pretty poor for a while. When was the last time we played well against a good side and won? We will probably manage fifth, but we have really dropped off.

[IFWaters]

Looking at the teams from 6th to 10th I just don't see any of them getting more than 65 points. Granted Man Utd have 8 games left but 2 are against Liverpool and Arsenal.

2 more wins I think will be 5th at least.

[Villan82]

Thing is our actual level of performance has been pretty poor for a while. When was the last time we played well against a good side and won? We will probably manage fifth, but we have really dropped off.

Kamara is a huge loss. Konsa hasn't been at the same level since his injury. Digne got injured when he was having a storming season

Now Cash is missing. Ramsey has only managed about 7 starts in the league. Not going to mention the two players who missed the whole season.

We have done well to stay in the top 4 given the disruption to the side.

[Keeno]

Thing is our actual level of performance has been pretty poor for a while. When was the last time we played well against a good side and won? We will probably manage fifth, but we have really dropped off.

I guess my point is, if you look at the teams we're expecting to finish around, Spurs included, it's basically the same for everyone. Most teams apart from the top 3 have been affected by injuries, inconsistent, dropping points all over the shop. I'd argue it's been a bit of a crap 2024 in terms of quality across the league because generally players are playing far too many games, constantly getting injured and outside of Man City/Arse/Liverpool you can't sustain that loss of quality.

[PhilVill]

Yep, not done yet and still a Euro quarter final to play. Four years ago we were delighted with 36 points on the last day. We are far from the finished article also so a lot more to come.

[Toronto Villa]

Spurs next few games aren’t easy at all

Forest H - assuming they will find a way to win this. But the next games aren’t easy.
Newcastle A
Man City H - to be confirmed
Arsenal H
Chelsea A
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield United A

[Keeno]

Spurs next few games aren’t easy at all

Forest H - assuming they will find a way to win this. But the next games aren’t easy.
Newcastle A
Man City H - to be confirmed
Arsenal H
Chelsea A
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield United A

I actually didn't realise they had that run of 4 fixtures from City to Liverpool away. That is bloody difficult. With Newcastle away to kick off that run too.

Feels very likely we could both be on 67 points going into the final day!

[Toronto Villa]

They will lose some of those. We need to pick up points as our games aren’t exactly easy. But we can still get 4th despite today.

[PaulWinch again]

Spurs next few games aren’t easy at all

Forest H - assuming they will find a way to win this. But the next games aren’t easy.
Newcastle A
Man City H - to be confirmed
Arsenal H
Chelsea A
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield United A

No they’re not, but, and I accept there is some recency bias in this, but if we’re pitching in at a level where we throw away a 2 goal lead to Brentford we can’t really go into any of our fixtures assuming a win. We’ve become really sloppy in games, and it’s as soon as any pressure comes on. We have to address that or Spurs will finish above.