Champions League Contention

[Dave P]

With all the FFP stuff flying around, I was lamenting to my mate that we may start to decline a bit given injuries an that we can't really strengthen but then not many teams around us can either and we are at a higher starting point for the second half of the season with points and squad ability.  I think we'll finish at least 5th which should be Champions League.  Put it this way, it will now be a massive disappointment if we don't.

[chrisw1]

Our form isn't some couple of weeks fluke. We have been the second best team points wise behind Man City for 13 months now, so why is it not possible to finish in the top 4. I can understand pundits overlooking this but reading the comments on here even our own fans are.
Yes we drop points when we shouldn't but so have every other team around us.

The fact that it's possible doesn't mean that people have to think we will.

Perhaps it's just the natural scepticism of a Villa fan nurtured over the last 40 years. 

Or possibly it's because some people think we've ridden our luck a bit and probably punched a bit above our weight in terms of points vs performance.  Martinez alone has probably been worth 12-15 points this season.  Either way, until Villa start winning stuff or qualifying for the CL regularly people will always be cautious about predicting our success. 

Hopefully Emery will earn the respect we as fans want from the media in the next season or two.

I don't think we have ridden our luck at all - we've lost the games where we haven't played well, but we've deservedly won the large majority of matches in the last 12 months.  And, if we don't finish in the top 4 it won't be Manchester United who finish above us as we'll funeral those bastards once and for all on 11th February!

Fair enough.  Off the top of my head I thought we were fortunate against Spurs, Chelsea, Bournemouth & Arsenal.  We were probably a bit unlucky against Man U.  I also think we are relying heavily on Martinez who is saving way above average one-on-ones - which I appreciate is great and reflects his ability, but doesn't feel sustainable.

I'm not belittling what Emery has done or saying we don't deserve to be where we are, but on balance I do feel we have ridden our luck and can understand why some pundits would also think that too.  It may be the natural negativity of a Brummie, but I'd take 5th now if offered.

[Dave]

Our form isn't some couple of weeks fluke. We have been the second best team points wise behind Man City for 13 months now, so why is it not possible to finish in the top 4. I can understand pundits overlooking this but reading the comments on here even our own fans are.
Yes we drop points when we shouldn't but so have every other team around us.

The fact that it's possible doesn't mean that people have to think we will.

Perhaps it's just the natural scepticism of a Villa fan nurtured over the last 40 years. 

Or possibly it's because some people think we've ridden our luck a bit and probably punched a bit above our weight in terms of points vs performance.  Martinez alone has probably been worth 12-15 points this season.  Either way, until Villa start winning stuff or qualifying for the CL regularly people will always be cautious about predicting our success. 

Hopefully Emery will earn the respect we as fans want from the media in the next season or two.

I don't think we have ridden our luck at all - we've lost the games where we haven't played well, but we've deservedly won the large majority of matches in the last 12 months.  And, if we don't finish in the top 4 it won't be Manchester United who finish above us as we'll funeral those bastards once and for all on 11th February!

Fair enough.  Off the top of my head I thought we were fortunate against Spurs, Chelsea, Bournemouth & Arsenal.  We were probably a bit unlucky against Man U.  I also think we are relying heavily on Martinez who is saving way above average one-on-ones - which I appreciate is great and reflects his ability, but doesn't feel sustainable.

I'm not belittling what Emery has done or saying we don't deserve to be where we are, but on balance I do feel we have ridden our luck and can understand why some pundits would also think that too.  It may be the natural negativity of a Brummie, but I'd take 5th now if offered.

The ones that you cite, we could easily have dropped points in had a couple of bounces gone against us instead of for us - but then Forest, Wolves and Sheffield Utd as well as Man Utd are all matches where we could have gained points had a couple of bounces gone for us instead of against.

[chrisw1]

I thought on the balance of play Wolves and Sheffield were both fair results.  Forest was one of those games that we should have got something.

[Dave]

I thought on the balance of play Wolves and Sheffield were both fair results.  Forest was one of those games that we should have got something.

They were fair results, but the four that you mention were also fair results.

[chrisw1]

I thought on the balance of play Wolves and Sheffield were both fair results.  Forest was one of those games that we should have got something.

They were fair results, but the four that you mention were also fair results.

ok.  I personally think we were a bit lucky and understand why others would think that too.

[Dave]

I thought on the balance of play Wolves and Sheffield were both fair results.  Forest was one of those games that we should have got something.

They were fair results, but the four that you mention were also fair results.

ok.  I personally think we were a bit lucky and understand why others would think that too.

I don't really see why they are mutually exclusive things. I think we were a bit lucky not to be 3-0 down at half-time against Spurs. We were a bit unlucky not to be 2-0 up against Sheffield Utd with five minutes to go. And a win against Spurs and a draw against Sheffield Utd were still both perfectly fair results.

[Ads]

I think we were unlucky not to beat Wolves. Should have had a penalty and skimmed the post with the last head of the game.

[chrisw1]

I thought on the balance of play Wolves and Sheffield were both fair results.  Forest was one of those games that we should have got something.

They were fair results, but the four that you mention were also fair results.

ok.  I personally think we were a bit lucky and understand why others would think that too.

I don't really see why they are mutually exclusive things. I think we were a bit lucky not to be 3-0 down at half-time against Spurs. We were a bit unlucky not to be 2-0 up against Sheffield Utd with five minutes to go. And a win against Spurs and a draw against Sheffield Utd were still both perfectly fair results.

Fair enough.  I was just trying to make a point as to why some people may think we've ridden our luck a bit.  I feel we have, but I appreciate it's subjective.  Equally, I've seen a stat to say we've been unlucky with VAR so I do understand it's swings and roundabouts.

[Dave]

I thought on the balance of play Wolves and Sheffield were both fair results.  Forest was one of those games that we should have got something.

They were fair results, but the four that you mention were also fair results.

ok.  I personally think we were a bit lucky and understand why others would think that too.

I don't really see why they are mutually exclusive things. I think we were a bit lucky not to be 3-0 down at half-time against Spurs. We were a bit unlucky not to be 2-0 up against Sheffield Utd with five minutes to go. And a win against Spurs and a draw against Sheffield Utd were still both perfectly fair results.

Fair enough.  I was just trying to make a point as to why some people may think we've ridden our luck a bit.  I feel we have, but I appreciate it's subjective.  Equally, I've seen a stat to say we've been unlucky with VAR so I do understand it's swings and roundabouts.

Yup - I think it probably is one of those "even themselves out over the season" things.

[Ads]

We're as lucky as Liverpool with our Xg points and have managed to concede 1.8 goals fewer than Xg predicted.

[LeonW]

One thing i’ve been thinking about for awhile when I look at Spurs is whether they can they really keep up the pace with the way they’re playing all season? The load management must be extremely high. Conversely, I look at us and think there’s actually something very Italian in Emery’s approach in thinking about the road ahead over the entire season. I think our play reflects that, even in game with the way we play by often reducing the amount of physical demands we’re placing on players. We like to get a lead and then counter. This is why I think we’ll finish above spudz.

[Percy McCarthy]

One thing i’ve been thinking about for awhile when I look at Spurs is whether they can they really keep up the pace with the way they’re playing all season? The load management must be extremely high. Conversely, I look at us and think there’s actually something very Italian in Emery’s approach in thinking about the road ahead over the entire season. I think our play reflects that, even in game with the way we play by often reducing the amount of physical demands we’re placing on players. We like to get a lead and then counter. This is why I think we’ll finish above spudz.

Yes, that’s something I’ve considered and decided to believe too.

[London Villan]

I think there is something in this. The intensity they play with contributed to a load of their injuries.

[ChicagoLion]

I think since covid the differentiation comes down to fatigue and injuries.
Madison will be a huge boost to them and they have others coming back, they have a deeper squad than us.
We will do well to finish above them, the good news is they come to VP.