Champions League Contention

[Rigadon]

Our level has definitely dropped since the Citeh game, but in the main we’ve done well to grind out points. Hopefully the January rest will enable players to recover/get over injuries and we’ll kick on. Arsenal on the other hand are losing games as their level drops - they’re there for the taking in terms of top 4.

Agreed.  I think with Arsenal, it doesn't help that their manager is a manbaby who can't seem to keep his emotions in check.  Contrast that with Emery.  Intestity doesn't have to be embodied by acting like a petulant child every time something goes wrong (VAR, referee, etc).  Teams do embody their managers. 

[Risso]

I really think Man City will run away with it now. De Bruyne coming back is massive for them, and also Doku is fit again and he's been superb this season. I do think we've got enough in us to stay in the hunt for second or third though. I've just got a slightly nervous feeling that we're going to do knack all this transfer window, while the likes of Spurs and Liverpool will throw some money at it, and that could be the difference. Liverpool's forward line has got exceptional strength in depth, whereas we've got just Ollie as main striker, and Bailey and Diaby as the ancilliary striker/wide man.

[Bad English]

If we do finish in the top 2, 3,4,5 and qualify for the Champions League, it will be a massive step up and one which doesn't require a 5-year plan. Marvellous to think that we are up there and FTBSF!

[chrisw1]

I really think Man City will run away with it now. De Bruyne coming back is massive for them, and also Doku is fit again and he's been superb this season. I do think we've got enough in us to stay in the hunt for second or third though. I've just got a slightly nervous feeling that we're going to do knack all this transfer window, while the likes of Spurs and Liverpool will throw some money at it, and that could be the difference. Liverpool's forward line has got exceptional strength in depth, whereas we've got just Ollie as main striker, and Bailey and Diaby as the ancilliary striker/wide man.

Agree about Man City and also the transfer window.  This is FFP protecting the '6' in all it's glory.

I think Spurs will come back strong too.  I'd bite your hand off for 4th place right now.

[Rigadon]

Does anybody actually know what our FFP position is? 

[chrisw1]

Does anybody actually know what our FFP position is? 

Nobody outside the club knows, but it's likely to be extremely tight - that's we we sold the kids off.

I did see a thread on it on Twitter.  I'll see if I can find it.

<edit> - here you go.  Lot's of assumptions, but it mostly makes sense to me.

https://twitter.com/mattburton72/status/1742567677023945041

[Rigadon]

Does anybody actually know what our FFP position is? 

Nobody outside the club knows, but it's likely to be extremely tight - that's we we sold the kids off.

I did see a thread on it on Twitter.  I'll see if I can find it.

I\d be interested to see it, thanks

[ChicagoLion]

Does anybody actually know what our FFP position is? 

Nobody outside the club knows, but it's likely to be extremely tight - that's we we sold the kids off.

I did see a thread on it on Twitter.  I'll see if I can find it.

<edit> - here you go.  Lot's of assumptions, but it mostly makes sense to me.

https://twitter.com/mattburton72/status/1742567677023945041

The screenshots were posted on the transfer thread.
It looks like we could do something but probably means we need to trade.

[Smithy]

I really think Man City will run away with it now. De Bruyne coming back is massive for them, and also Doku is fit again and he's been superb this season. I do think we've got enough in us to stay in the hunt for second or third though. I've just got a slightly nervous feeling that we're going to do knack all this transfer window, while the likes of Spurs and Liverpool will throw some money at it, and that could be the difference. Liverpool's forward line has got exceptional strength in depth, whereas we've got just Ollie as main striker, and Bailey and Diaby as the ancilliary striker/wide man.

I agree with all of this.  Man City (with their talisman back) look like the only side capable of going on a 10-game winning run and putting everyone else in the rearview mirror.  The top four still has to be our realistic aim, but one of us, Spurs or Arsenal, is likely to be the ones to miss out.

What odds on us needing to win the Conference League to bring our national coefficient high enough to secure a 5th place in the Champions League, and then us finishing in that fifth spot?

[Dogtanian]

I said at the start of the season that I'd be happy with getting out the group stage in the Conference League and getting top six in the Prem. We've done the first one and now probably need another twenty-odd points from our last 18 games to get sixth. So even with a drop off in form, I think we are very likely to get at least that.

Expectations have been raised with the first half performance, but as we are finding more teams are sitting deep against us, we need to improve even more just to keep where we are. That's my only concern with finishing top four. We are capable of it, but we need to become more effective at breaking down these teams.

[Risso]

Top 6 would be disappointing after everything we've done so far. It would only be one place up from last year, and without the handicap of a poor start under a different manager as well. It would also mean that as well as falling behind Spurs, (if you assume maybe that Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal finish top 3), one of West Ham, Man U or Newcastle had gone above us. Given the points differential now that would mean quite a slump.

[rob_bridge]

5th would be a big achievement all things told. ManU, Newcastle and Chelsea have much bigger squads and all things being equal shouldn't be seeing us way down the track as things stand.

If we could add either cup to 4th or 5th it would be brilliant

[Rigadon]

Anything less than CL qualification would feel like a disappointment. 

[Pat Mustard]

I'm not as convinced that Man City will run away with it this year like they have in the past - De Bruyne is 32 now and it will take him time to get up to speed, and their squad doesn't seem to have the strength it used to have without the likes of Gundogan and Mahrez.  We showed before Christmas that they are there to be shot at by a decent team, and I think anyone in the top 10 this season can give them a tough game.

We need to get in better back up for Martinez and Watkins as an absolute priority, and then if there is anyone else who could push us on then for once I can see the value is spending over the odds this window.  10 wins out of our last 18 games and Champions League would be virtually guaranteed.

[Smithy]

5th would be a big achievement all things told. ManU, Newcastle and Chelsea have much bigger squads and all things being equal shouldn't be seeing us way down the track as things stand.

If we could add either cup to 4th or 5th it would be brilliant

There is a developing gap between 5th and 6th (currently 5 points, and 8 points from 5th down to 7th place), so you would think unless our form suffers a really significant drop-off, we're in the fight for the top four, with 5th the worst case scenario. 

5th was 67 points last year, that's 25 points from 18 games.  I still think we'll need a points total in the low to mid-70s to guarantee Champions League football, which means maybe 30-32 points from the next 18 games.

10 wins from the last 18 games and a couple of draws. We could even afford to lose maybe five or six and still do it. We have another 9 games at home to come. It's all eminently doable.

Given the relative weakness of Chelsea and Man Utd this season, you have to think we're unlikely to have a better chance than this to break into the top four and get a foothold in there.  It would be hugely disappointing not to make it now, given the incredible first-half to the season we've had.