Champions League Contention

[Footy-Vill]

Out of all the games coming up I reckon Brentford will be the hardest.

I reckon Sheff Utd will be a tough game, especially now Wilder has gone back.

17
Brentford V Aston Villa
Liverpool : Man Utd h ,
Arsenal :Brighton h
Man City: Palace h

Then 18

Friday night December 22nd Aston Villa at home to Sheffield United.
Liverpool Vs Arsenal on Saturday 23rd
Man City don't have a fixture because of the World club championship

19
Man Utd V Aston Villa
Liverpool: Burnley a
Arsenal: West Ham h
Man City: Everton a

20
Aston Villa v Burnley
Liverpool : Newcastle h
Arsenal: Fulham a
Man City: Sheffield Utd h

[SamTheMouse]

I reckon Sheff Utd will be a tough game, especially now Wilder has gone back.

Yeah, I reckon you're right there. It's now looking like the sort of away game where we've been coming unstuck lately.

[Dave]

I reckon Sheff Utd will be a tough game, especially now Wilder has gone back.

Yeah, I reckon you're right there. It's now looking like the sort of away game where we've been coming unstuck lately.

Luckily for us, it's at VP.

[Dave]

At the risk of looking silly in a couple of weeks, I think the ManYoo game will be the one that messes us up.

Things are different now, but I still can't shake the "Villa at Old Trafford" muscle memory coming back in, however bad they are. I imagine a last minute penalty given for them after Fernandes punches Torres full in the face.

[Risso]

At the risk of looking silly in a couple of weeks, I think the ManYoo game will be the one that messes us up.

Things are different now, but I still can't shake the "Villa at Old Trafford" muscle memory coming back in, however bad they are. I imagine a last minute penalty given for them after Fernandes punches Torres full in the face.

I feel the same but am happy to look silly if we do win. Man U away was one of our most non-descript performances last season. We turned up, did very little, and lost. Wasn't even a bad decision to get pissed off with.

[Smithy]

Our form is absolutely brilliant, and that simply can't continue indefinitely.  At some point we will have a run of three or four bad games, and the test will be how quickly we can respond and get back into the groove.  Man City have only won one in the last five.  Spurs the same, having lost three of them. That will be us at some point, but it would be nice to get into the January transfer window without a big drop-off in form.

[Dave]

Our form is absolutely brilliant, and that simply can't continue indefinitely.  At some point we will have a run of three or four bad games, and the test will be how quickly we can respond and get back into the groove.  Man City have only won one in the last five.  Spurs the same, having lost three of them. That will be us at some point, but it would be nice to get into the January transfer window without a big drop-off in form.

The fixture list is really kind to us in that sense - the return games against Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal are all in April or May.

So while that might end up derailing our eventual title push, there isn't really any run of more than a couple of matches without then finding three or four "easier" games to help play us back into form after a dodgy result.

[OCD]

Here's a stat I like.

In 2015-16, it took Leicester 21 games to get to the 35 point mark. We've done it in 16 games.

[Smirker]

Our form is absolutely brilliant, and that simply can't continue indefinitely.  At some point we will have a run of three or four bad games, and the test will be how quickly we can respond and get back into the groove.  Man City have only won one in the last five.  Spurs the same, having lost three of them. That will be us at some point, but it would be nice to get into the January transfer window without a big drop-off in form.

The fixture list is really kind to us in that sense - the return games against Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal are all in April or May.

So while that might end up derailing our eventual title push, there isn't really any run of more than a couple of matches without then finding three or four "easier" games to help play us back into form after a dodgy result.

In my opinion having them at the end potentially puts us within touching distance when we play them, rather than a few months before so adrenaline and momentum could see us through. If we had to play MC away in two weeks or something, the context would be different.

Brentford on the weekend is massive and so is every league game from now on.

We simply cannot take our eyes off the next game and start thinking about things in front of that.

Fucking hell I can't even believe I'm talking about this shit.

Come on!!!!!!

[kippaxvilla2]

We will probably end up losing 3-0 to Blackburn away.

[Smithy]

Here's a stat I like.

In 2015-16, it took Leicester 21 games to get to the 35 point mark. We've done it in 16 games.

They were also top of the league after 16 games (with fewer points than we have now), because no one was the standout team all season.  Take nothing away from Leicester, they had an incredible season, one we'd all love to have, but second place that year was Arsenal with just 71 points.  For context, if Leicester has the exact same points LAST season as they did in 15-16 they wouldn't have even got in the Champions League places.  They'd have been 5th on goal difference.

Leicester had a standout season, and were extremely lucky no one else was particularly good that year.  I'd love it to be the same for us, but frankly, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all look like have reasonable seasons, and certainly not the sub-70 points seasons they had in 2016.

I only mention this as there have been a few people in the media saying "Can Villa do a Leicester", when the question should equally be "will the stars align with everyone else being shit to allow Villa to do a Leicester".  If I thought 72 points would win the league, I'd definitely be bigging up our chances - but it won't.

[OCD]

I agree Smithy but the last time we were able to challenge for the league, I was 11/12 years old. It's fun to speculate on what could be.

[Footy-Vill]

Presently 4/5 odds on to finish top 4.

71 points has been 4th last two seasons. 22 games to get another 36 points. Still think it's a tall ask. Really hope likes of Moreno and Ramsey can give us a boost over the next number of weeks. Bailey and Tielemans have picked it up a lot.

Comparison after 16 games
And final top 4

After 16 games
23/24
1.Liverpool 37pts
2.Arsenal 36pts
3.Villa 35pts
4.Man City 30pts

22/23
1. Arsenal 40pts
2. Man City 38pts
3. Newcastle 33pts
4. Spurs 29pts

End of season :
Man City won the league  89pts
2nd:Liverpool 84pts
3rd:Man Utd 75pts
4th:Newcastle 71pts

21/22
1. Man City 38pts
2. Liverpool 37pts
3. Chelsea 36pts
4. West Ham 28pts

End of season:
Man City won the league :93pts
2nd: Liverpool 92pts
3rd Chelsea 74pts
4th: Spurs 71pts

20/21
1.Liverpool 33pts
2. Man Utd 33pts
3. Man City 32pts
4.Aston Villa 29pts

End of season 20/21
Man City won the league 86pts
2nd: Man Utd 74pts
3rd : Liverpool 69pts
4th : Chelsea 67pts

2019/20
1. Liverpool 46pts
2. Leicester 38pts
3. Man City  32pts
4. Chelsea 29pts

End of season
Liverpool win the league 99pts
2nd :Man City 81pts
3rd :Man Utd 66pts
4th :Chelsea 66pts

And the Leicester City winning season:

15/16
1.Leicester 35pts
2.Arsenal 33pts
3.Man City 32pts
4.Man Utd 29pts

End of season
Leicester won the league 81pts
2nd Arsenal 71pts
3rd: Spurs 70pts
4th: Man City 66pts

Take note.

[Footy-Vill]

Here's a stat I like.

In 2015-16, it took Leicester 21 games to get to the 35 point mark. We've done it in 16 games.

They were also top of the league after 16 games (with fewer points than we have now), because no one was the standout team all season.  Take nothing away from Leicester, they had an incredible season, one we'd all love to have, but second place that year was Arsenal with just 71 points.  For context, if Leicester has the exact same points LAST season as they did in 15-16 they wouldn't have even got in the Champions League places.  They'd have been 5th on goal difference.

Leicester had a standout season, and were extremely lucky no one else was particularly good that year.  I'd love it to be the same for us, but frankly, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all look like have reasonable seasons, and certainly not the sub-70 points seasons they had in 2016.

I only mention this as there have been a few people in the media saying "Can Villa do a Leicester", when the question should equally be "will the stars align with everyone else being shit to allow Villa to do a Leicester".  If I thought 72 points would win the league, I'd definitely be bigging up our chances - but it won't.

No no no no !!!!
This stat is grossly inaccurate.
Besides I already covered the Leicester season after 16 matches and final table

I posted the last 3 seasons top 4 and the Leicester City winning season after 16 games.

2015/16
1.Leicester 35pts
2.Arsenal 33pts
3.Man City 32pts
4.Man Utd 29pts
-------

And after  17 matches
1.Leicester 38pts
2. Arsenal 36pts
3. Man City 32pts
4.Spurs 29pts

[andyh]

Has this been posted

https://x.com/espenstrand/status/1734489259829059690?s=20