2024 January transfer window - hopes, needs, expectations and rumours.

[dekko]

So we can’t really sign anyone because of our FFP situation despite being 4th in the league with, arguably, our best chance of champions league football for yonks?

How would it sit for FFP purposes if we were to take the risk and sign a player or two to strengthen the first team with the aim of securing a top 4/5 finish. If we did, then had the extra income from Champs League would that cover it?

We could do that, yeah.

But miss out and we're getting points deductions etc etc

[chrisw1]

We could only do it if we have the headroom room in the 3 year cycle ending this June.  I doubt we have.   

[chrisw1]

He pushed for a move by all accounts, hard to manage that situation when he wouldn't have been promised starts like he wanted.

I'm sure we could have kept him with some reassurances, but I guess with Zaniolo and Ramsey to come back (was Buendia injured at that point?) Emery probably thought he wouldn't be able to give him much game time.  It's a shame as it seems he would have been very useful and we look like we're going to spend £12m on a player who on the face of it doesn't seem to be as good.   

[Bent Neilsens Screamer]

So we can’t really sign anyone because of our FFP situation despite being 4th in the league with, arguably, our best chance of champions league football for yonks?

How would it sit for FFP purposes if we were to take the risk and sign a player or two to strengthen the first team with the aim of securing a top 4/5 finish. If we did, then had the extra income from Champs League would that cover it?

We could do that, yeah.

But miss out and we're getting points deductions etc etc

Points deduction or would we potentially have to sell a valuable asset to cover the difference? Just playing devils advocate, some of our bigger players might want to leave for champions league football anyway if we don’t get there this season.

[Somniloquism]

I expect reassurances were not enough. Buendia was injured the week leading up to the Newcastle match and Ramsey wasn't back, yet Philogene was relegated to appearing 5 minutes before the end when already 4-1 down. He then never appeared even on the bench against Everton and Burnley so I expect had already been "sold" as Zaniolo was being pursued.

[pauliewalnuts]

Emery explicitly said at some point after him leaving that Philogene understandably said he wanted minutes and Emery wanted him to stay but he couldn’t promise him he’d get as many as he wanted, so it was agreed he’d leave.

[tomd2103]

So we can’t really sign anyone because of our FFP situation despite being 4th in the league with, arguably, our best chance of champions league football for yonks?

How would it sit for FFP purposes if we were to take the risk and sign a player or two to strengthen the first team with the aim of securing a top 4/5 finish. If we did, then had the extra income from Champs League would that cover it?

Come on now, we don't want any upstart clubs getting ideas and start replacing the 'big six'.  It's just not good for business.

[VillaTim]

So we can’t really sign anyone because of our FFP situation despite being 4th in the league with, arguably, our best chance of champions league football for yonks?

How would it sit for FFP purposes if we were to take the risk and sign a player or two to strengthen the first team with the aim of securing a top 4/5 finish. If we did, then had the extra income from Champs League would that cover it?

We could do that, yeah.

But miss out and we're getting points deductions etc etc

Points deduction or would we potentially have to sell a valuable asset to cover the difference? Just playing devils advocate, some of our bigger players might want to leave for champions league football anyway if we don’t get there this season.

I think that might be the case and i'd have no issue with a couple of big sales and Emery reshaping things as he sees fit

[dekko]

So we can’t really sign anyone because of our FFP situation despite being 4th in the league with, arguably, our best chance of champions league football for yonks?

How would it sit for FFP purposes if we were to take the risk and sign a player or two to strengthen the first team with the aim of securing a top 4/5 finish. If we did, then had the extra income from Champs League would that cover it?

We could do that, yeah.

But miss out and we're getting points deductions etc etc

Points deduction or would we potentially have to sell a valuable asset to cover the difference? Just playing devils advocate, some of our bigger players might want to leave for champions league football anyway if we don’t get there this season.

Yeah I guess we could sell assets to cover the difference.

Problem you'll have there is that the PSR accounting deadline is in the middle of the window - the buying teams knowing you've gotta sell before a certain point would drive the prices down.  I don't think Forest will get away with their shenanigans with selling Johnson later in the window to maximise value even though they knew it would put them over the PSR limits.

Probably better off doing what it looks like the club is doing now and not running the risk - if we miss out we'll be able to extract maximum value from players and wont be drawn into a fire sale.

[chrisw1]

I don't think qualifying for the CL or not makes any real difference to what we can spend this window, other than league placing prize money.  It will make a big difference to what we can do in the summer though.

We still need to balance the books by June whether we qualify for the CL or not, so any overspend this window would just leave us in Forest's position of having to have a fire sale to get money in by end of June or deliberately breaching FFP.  In short, it would be idiotic to spend above our FFP threshold this window, whatever that may be.

[brontebilly]

Newcastle have shown that a one off CL qualification doesn't really change things too much in terms of FFP headroom. For me, this is again another unintended consequence of FFP. Sure we don't want another Leeds but clubs that overachieve, like in Newcastle's example, should be rewarded somewhat. Now they are openly talking about selling one of their best players next summer to stay within FFP.

Same could happen us, qualify for CL this season. But soon after having to sell a Kamara, Luiz or Ramsey. I get that clubs need to increase their revenues but there should be provision for results on the pitch too.

[Smithy]

The single biggest factor in what we can spend on players (transfers and wages) is what we earn off the pitch. Champions League money will definitely help in that respect, but this is where Chris Heck has to earn his wages.  Our commercial revenue has to rise significantly.  Not by fleecing the fans on match-day, but by extracting a couple of quid a year from the millions of fans around the world, and from brands who want to get in front of them.  Plus, growing that fan base and attracting better brands.

The "traditional top 6" (bleugh) aren't earning what they do because of the Champions League revenue; they're earning it because they've built commercial behemoths around their on-field success.  Man Utd aren't in the Champions League next season, but I bet the hit that has on their overall income will be in the 5- 10% range, max.

We need to get somewhere close to that. It'll take time, and as much as I want the club to sign new players, I also don't want them risking our FFP stability until we can get there.  Newcastle gambled a bit, and now at the first sign that they're not going to be in the Champions League next season, they're having to sell off England internationals to balance the books.

[Drummond]

Our kit sales should go through the roof with a decent effort from Adidas. A strong goalscoring end to the season would makes us more attractive too.

Champs League gets us far better sponsor opportunities too.

[pablo_picasso]

He pushed for a move by all accounts, hard to manage that situation when he wouldn't have been promised starts like he wanted.

But sadly, with Ramsey injured for most of the season, he would have played for most of the season.

And probably made the position his own...

[Baldy]

The way it is going, FFP may become a tactic/strategy against other clubs.

Make a verbal agreement to purchase a player and then renege at a later date. Contrive not to buy any player from a certain club and bugger them up financially etc

Instead of fully focusing on gaining points in the league, some clubs might be thinking their opponents getting an FFP deduction is equally as important.

Wouldn't be beyond the Levy's, Glazers, oil rich clubs of this world!!!!

Just a thought