2024 January transfer window - hopes, needs, expectations and rumours.

[VinnieChase84]

We have to be super realistic. Any bids of over £100m for any of our players would have to be seriously considered. Would also be best part of £10m p season off wage bill at the sametime. Luiz is basically "homegrown" for ffp since his amortisation is basically nil

That kind of money would give us massive ffp headroom to bring in 2-3 top top level players

Having said this, not overly worried. Trust Unai and his team to have a plan regardless 

[AV84]

I would think how we finish the season is more likely to impact on whether a top player like Luiz wants to move on in the summer.

[Dogtanian]

Looking at the Championship this season, only 17 players have gone for £10m or more so far. And eight of those were from the three relegated clubs.

I thought the Rogers fee seemed quite low, considering, but looking at those figures we seem to be taking advantage of the current market.

[Risso]

With everybody seemingly tightening their belts this season, I really do think we'll see a big reduction in the number of times teams spend £100m on a player in any case. For that reason I can't see anybody spending £100m on Luiz, not in the next 2 or 3 transfer windows anyway.

[Baldy]

We all know it, even the players, the sooner they figure out how to put a 'global cap' on players wages the better.

Only agents, players, hair dressers and tattoo artists are currently thriving.

[Smithy]

With everybody seemingly tightening their belts this season, I really do think we'll see a big reduction in the number of times teams spend £100m on a player in any case. For that reason I can't see anybody spending £100m on Luiz, not in the next 2 or 3 transfer windows anyway.

I suspect that with Everton and Forest under the microscope, most clubs will now be far more risk averse, rather than having a willingness to go right to the limit thanks to the Premier League's riches.  I will be very surprised if we see too many big deals of the sort Chelsea have done over the last 18 months, from anyone, even the uber-rich clubs.

I'd love to know how close we got to going over the limit in our first couple of years back up before we sold Jack.  I know the Covid situation and empty grounds gave us some leeway, but I do wonder where we might have found ourselves without the Covid get-out-of-jail-free card?

[Sexual Ealing]

My feeling is that a depressed market suits us, as it does other clubs with excellent coaches (Man. City, Liverpool, maybe Spurs).

[brontebilly]

We won't improve as a team if we keep selling our best players. Selling Luiz or Kamara (or Ramsey) as our prime 'FFP' assets makes our team a lot worse.

Surely this FFP will be revised over the summer as it's having farcical consequences. A player would be utterly foolish now not to run down his contract. Leon Bailey for example, surely his agent will be advising him not to renew with us and get offered huge incentives from prospective clubs for his FFP value, not necessarily his playing value. Free transfers are never free either, see Richards, Micah for one example.

[eamonn]

We all know it, even the players, the sooner they figure out how to put a 'global cap' on players wages the better.

Only agents, players, hair dressers and tattoo artists are currently thriving.

What about vape-sellers?

[Gareth]

We won't improve as a team if we keep selling our best players. Selling Luiz or Kamara (or Ramsey) as our prime 'FFP' assets makes our team a lot worse.

Surely this FFP will be revised over the summer as it's having farcical consequences. A player would be utterly foolish now not to run down his contract. Leon Bailey for example, surely his agent will be advising him not to renew with us and get offered huge incentives from prospective clubs for his FFP value, not necessarily his playing value. Free transfers are never free either, see Richards, Micah for one example.

Why would they revise it? It is doing exactly what it was set up to do, all about stopping anyone new challenging the ‘establishment’ - Manchester City are only grudgingly accepted by those clubs so they won’t care if they are caught out

[pauliewalnuts]

A player would be utterly foolish now not to run down his contract. Leon Bailey for example, surely his agent will be advising him not to renew with us and get offered huge incentives from prospective clubs for his FFP value, not necessarily his playing value. Free transfers are never free either, see Richards, Micah for one example.

I might be missing something but don't see how his FFP value (which is value to us and nobody else) is going to make him attractive to any other club?

[Smithy]

A player would be utterly foolish now not to run down his contract. Leon Bailey for example, surely his agent will be advising him not to renew with us and get offered huge incentives from prospective clubs for his FFP value, not necessarily his playing value. Free transfers are never free either, see Richards, Micah for one example.

I might be missing something but don't see how his FFP value (which is value to us and nobody else) is going to make him attractive to any other club?

You sign someone on a "free", then any sale you make of them at any point in the future is 100% FFP profit.  If you get into financial trouble, sell one of your free transfers and it's 100% profit.  Free transfers have always offered that "profit" benefit to their new clubs, but in the world of FFP, it is now more attractive to know on day one that a player will contribute positively to FFP when they leave, rather than worrying if you'll get back what you paid, or get to their current "book" value in FFP terms.

EDIT: Imagine we were a couple of million the wrong side of FFP, selling Tielemans for £20m would actually help us more in FFP terms than selling Diaby for £50m.  This is the "wiggle room" having a team with a few decent free transfers gives you.

[Dogtanian]

Is anyone else thinking that the Rogers deal will get done (if it's going to) after their second leg on Tuesday?

If they sold him beforehand and then lost, it would look like they took the money over a potential final.

[Grocer]

My feeling is that a depressed market suits us, as it does other clubs with excellent coaches (Man. City, Liverpool, maybe Spurs).

Yes, that's exactly what I was just thinking. Whilst some clubs will be disadvantaged by having lower turnover/commercial income, in theory FFP does have the potential of further increasing the critical importance of high quality coaching. We are definitely well placed in this respect.

[Risso]

A player would be utterly foolish now not to run down his contract. Leon Bailey for example, surely his agent will be advising him not to renew with us and get offered huge incentives from prospective clubs for his FFP value, not necessarily his playing value. Free transfers are never free either, see Richards, Micah for one example.

I might be missing something but don't see how his FFP value (which is value to us and nobody else) is going to make him attractive to any other club?

As Smithy says, he'd be a free transfer, and therefore the value on the balance sheet to the buying club would be zilch, and therefore no amortisation.