2024 January transfer window - hopes, needs, expectations and rumours.

[Toronto Villa]

Emi may be back sooner than expected because he's been seen walking round the place for a while and might therefore get back to running and stuff soon. Mings though, I reckon it won't be until September at least before he's back, maybe later if he doesn't get a pre-season.

Mings can come on for a few minutes and juggle the ball and go lie down.

https://x.com/catrinavfc/status/1744140831802409075?s=20

[Brazilian Villain]

Has it been confirmed anywhere that there is a trigger after x games?

What's snowboarding or skateboarding got to do with this ?

I think someone confused BMX with BHX.

[SaddVillan]

Here's a bit from The Athletic - apologies for it being so long, but stick within it -  illustrates how much goes into balancing the books, squad development and FFP.

ASTON VILLA AND FFP: THE JACK GREALISH MONEY, CREATIVITY AND SELLING ACADEMY TALENT

Balancing newfound ambitions and living within their means have increasingly formed part of Aston Villa’s thinking of late. The desire to compete in the Champions League and match head coach Unai Emery’s expectations requires big money but is equally relative to commercial and revenue growth.

“The (player) sales have basically been to balance our FFP,” said Monchi, Aston Villa’s president of football operations. “Money does not rain in the Premier League. There are clubs with problems. There are rules and regulations. What we try is to be ambitious from sanity.”

Summer 2024 was gearing up to be a dangerous one, based on Premier League profit and sustainability rules — the division’s version of financial fair play (FFP). Villa had been largely covered by the £100million ($127.53m, €116.07m) sale of Jack Grealish in 2021, allowing them to comply with FFP over a three-year period.

Knowing the money received from Manchester City for Grealish could not last forever, Villa became mindful of shielding against FFP’s threat, accentuated by the necessity to upgrade their squad in line with Emery’s elevated standards. Action was needed in preparation for this upcoming summer.

Largely underpinned by the sale for Grealish, Villa raised £127million via player departures in 2021 and subsequently spent just one million more (£128m) on signings. Of that £128m, £88m was used on three attacking replacements to compensate for the void left by Grealish — Leon Bailey, Emiliano Buendia and Danny Ings. It is important to note those figures do not take into account amortisation, which is when transfer fees are spread over the length of the involved player’s contract.

“The Grealish sale allowed them to comply with FFP but allow them to back into the market,” says Kieran Maguire, a football finance lecturer at the University of Liverpool and host of The Price of Football podcast. “They spent £204million in 2021-22, which was more than any other club in the Premier League — the Grealish sale allowed them to do that. It allowed the club to transform itself.”

Grealish’s departure came two years after promotion back to the Premier League and at a critical juncture in deciding Villa’s short-term future.

“If they hadn’t been promoted in 2019, they could have gone the same way as Derby (who are now in League One, English football’s third tier, having been docked 21 points in 2021 for breaking financial rules),” says Maguire. “The 2019 play-off final (Villa’s 2-1 win over Derby) was without a doubt the most precarious game of football I can think of. Villa lost £69m in 2019 when they went up and then lost £100m in the first year in the Premier League, although that was Covid impacted. In the first two seasons in the Premier League, they lost £138m and would have lost the thick end of £100m in 2022 had it not been for Grealish.”

Villa’s uncertain financial state in the Championship would have fallen foul to FFP had they not sold Villa Park back to the owners for £56.7millions. Without selling the stadium and easing cashflow issues, they would have suffered serious ramifications during the promotion-winning 2018-19 campaign. Villa’s then chief executive Christian Purslow was generally accepted to have delivered shrewdly, pre-empting the issue and enabling co-owner Nassef Sawiris, who was new to working in football, time to learn.

Financial accounts for the 2021-22 year reported a small profit of £400,000, signalling an improvement on previous significant losses but still as a consequence of Grealish giving breathing space. Revenue fell slightly from £183.6million to £178.4m, largely as a result of finishing 14th in the Premier League under manager Steven Gerrard, three positions lower than the season before.

Crucially, Villa’s next set of financial accounts, which ended on June 30, 2023, should see revenue grow following a recent seventh-placed finish and qualifying for the Europa Conference League.

Villa have been entering into a bottleneck situation since Emery replaced Gerrard in October 2022, driven by the steep progress made on the pitch. Emery wanted to build a best-in-class mentality, which has needed to be matched across several off-field departments.

Senior figures involved in non-related footballing matters have told The Athletic that other aspects are having to play catch-up in mirroring the advancement shown under Emery’s leadership. This is reflected in recruitment, where Emery is not content with signing “second-rate” players for the sake of it.

It has meant that staying out of FFP trouble while providing for Emery has been a complex balancing act, exacerbated by the proposals to redevelop and expand Villa Park. While this would provide critical extra revenue in the long term, purse strings would have to be tightened in the immediacy.

Rebuilding Villa Park would have required a complete demolition of its North Stand in June this year and the initial plans incorporated a “world-class entertainment venue” known as “Villa Live”. Costs were roughly projected to be around £100million ($125m).

Since then, however, inflation has taken hold and, according to sources close to the project who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity, costs have risen by tens of millions. “As with all projects, the quicker you do it, the cheaper it is,” said one source involved in the project’s logistical planning.

Other problems, such as the lack of transport and on-site parking around the stadium, required further feasibility studies. All of which proved excessive in both cost and in a competitive sense, playing in a temporary three-stand ground threatened to diminish the dominance Emery’s side have established at home. Optically, it would also appear jarring if Villa were missing a stand but playing in the Champions League — Europe’s premium club competition.

“It would be a bad idea to tear down one of our stands for two years playing like we are,” said president of business operations, Chris Heck.

The desire to placate the short-term targets and manage costs has contributed to the decision to pause the stadium redevelopment.

Villa’s recruitment strategy has been influenced in complying with FFP, indicating a gear shift.

Last January, there was an unequivocal belief that young midfielder Aaron Ramsey would not be sold. Yet, just a matter of months later, Villa declined Burnley’s opening loan-to-buy offer for Ramsey, changing tactics and instead proving willing to sell several academy graduates.

Youri Tielemans’ free-agent signing served as an upgrade to Emery and pushed Ramsey further down the pecking order. Villa noted the 20-year-old was now a player of value and helped to solve the problem of needing to sell a first-team player for big money, due to homegrown players registering as pure bookable profit on the financial books. Ramsey ended up joining Burnley in August in a £14million deal.

Ramsey’s departure created a ripple effect for fellow homegrown prospects. Villa then received £18.5million in pure bookable profit for Cameron Archer, who moved to Sheffield United. Jaden Philogene, who had been informed he was part of Emery’s squad this season, left for Hull City of the Championship on deadline day in September for £5m.

Rather than loaning out or retaining young players to provide squad depth, Villa now preferred to sell under the proviso of including a buy-back clause in those deals. From a financial perspective, they were able to monitor progress and possibly re-sign the players at a more suitable time, while alleviating short-term FFP fears.

Homegrown players sold

A Ramsey £14m
P Bidace £5m
C Archer £18.5m
K Davis  £2m

Developmentally, the levels Emery expects from his squad are extremely high. This has meant, in some cases, certain players have needed to go elsewhere to play regularly to try to bridge the gap.

The buying club would have a greater desire to improve them as they would be properly theirs, as opposed to only being around for one year on loan. A counterpoint to this, however, is whether a young player would be better served in staying at Villa and learning under Emery as opposed to simply getting more minutes on the pitch in another side.

In total, Villa raised £33million in sales last summer but spent £80m. That figure does not account for Tielemans, who they didn’t pay a fee for after his Leicester City contract expired but who received a significant signing-on bonus and is now among the squad’s highest earners.

The sales of Grealish, last summer’s youngsters and then 18-year-old Carney Chukwuemeka to Chelsea the year before (£20million) have helped to balance the books, as well as removing Philippe Coutinho’s $135,000 a week salary off the wage bill. Coutinho’s departure subsequently set up the loans of Clement Lenglet and Nicolo Zaniolo.

Shifting expendable high earners was a key route to deliver on FFP.

Coutinho fell into the bracket, as did Lucas Digne, who was attracting interest from sides in Europe and Al Hilal in Saudi Arabia, who knew of Villa’s openness to moving him on. Digne is one of the highest earners at £120,000 a week and although he did not want to leave — as indicated by the left-back changing his shirt number at the start of this season to his preferred No 12 — Villa felt they could recruit a replacement at a cheaper cost. No deal for Digne materialised but he will form part of Villa’s thinking this upcoming summer.

Yet the inescapable feeling is that if the club want to continue spending big, they will likely need to move on a first-team player for substantial profit. Douglas Luiz or Boubacar Kamara would generate big money, and Villa may view selling one of those as a conducive method to further ease FFP concerns and free up funds for future purchases.

With that said, securing Champions League riches would increase the financial ceiling, accessing money that is ordinarily locked by FFP. Clubs who qualified for this season’s group stage received around £14million (€15.64m), with every win in that six-game first phase worth an extra £2.4m.

“The Champions League is transformational,” said Maguire, when speaking to The Athletic last April. “The Champions League would be worth £30million, minimum.”

Villa have looked at every way possible to increase revenue streams. This has included adding more hospitality areas around the stadium, controversial sponsorship deals and raising ticket prices — even the value of players’ family boxes went up significantly. Qualifying for the Champions League would aid revenue growth considerably, although it would not solve everything.

The club have aimed to generate more money through sponsorship deals and by working with more established partners. The front-of-match-shirt sponsorship with BK8, a betting company, was highly contentious within the fanbase but was by far the best financial deal Villa could get as Purslow tried to secure the highest amount of money to keep them progressing.

According to well-placed sources, it was worth 50 per cent more than their next best offer. A lucrative multi-year agreement with kit manufacturer Adidas was struck in the autumn, with Heck tasked with bringing in huge commercial partners.

Creativity has been the theme of Villa ensuring they stay in line with FFP.

Last summer’s window was regarded as a solid start, selling youngsters for full profit, but other measures are being taken to play catch-up with the top flight’s Champions League clubs.

[AV84]

Dendoncker would depend if he thinks he has a way back into Belgium squad for Euros…if he does he might want to move…if a Luton or Forest came in with 3m I’d guess he would be gone

I'll swap him for Morgan Gibbs White or maybe that Doughty lad from Luton.

[Risso]

The accounts due are to 31 May 2023, not 30 June.

[tomd2103]

It's disappointing, but at least he is being honest with us.

I can accept & respect that...

Yep.  It's the hope that kills you!

[OCD]

The accounts due are to 31 May 2023, not 30 June.

There was a worse mistake than that earlier. They had it as J Ramsey being sold for £14m rather than A Ramsey.

[LeonW]

Here's a bit from The Athletic - apologies for it being so long, but stick within it -  illustrates how much goes into balancing the books, squad development and FFP.

ASTON VILLA AND FFP: THE JACK GREALISH MONEY, CREATIVITY AND SELLING ACADEMY TALENT

Many thanks for posting, SaddVillian.

Reading this just cements in my mind that FFP really is primarily something to ensure the status quo remains the same.

[SaddVillan]

I'd spotted and corrected the error re Jacob and Aaron, but hadn't noticed the incorrect accounts date.

The issue of t FFP is becoming ever more apparent in this transfer window.

Only today Newcastle said they might have to sell one of their big hitters to fund summer transfers - and that's despite a turnover of £250m and the untold wealth of their owners.

[AV84]

I wonder how long someone like Chelsea can stay in the Big 6, finance wise, if they don't qualify for Europe. This will be, probably, the second season they don't get European football. A lot of the big money sponsorship deals have clauses about two consecutive years with no Champions League. Spurs could be in the same position, depending on where they finish. Although they seem to be the only ones spending this month.

It's difficult, obviously, but if teams like us, Newcastle, Brighton etc can keep disrupting the "Top 6" it's possible a few of them will start to feel the pinch financially. Hopefully leading to a more level playing field.

[brontebilly]

Only today Newcastle said they might have to sell one of their big hitters to fund summer transfers - and that's despite a turnover of £250m and the untold wealth of their owners.

And that's after a season after they hit the expected financial holy grail of CL football. A couple of seasons maybe ahead of schedule and without the Robinho type signings.

[garyellis]

I wonder how long someone like Chelsea can stay in the Big 6, finance wise, if they don't qualify for Europe. This will be, probably, the second season they don't get European football. A lot of the big money sponsorship deals have clauses about two consecutive years with no Champions League. Spurs could be in the same position, depending on where they finish. Although they seem to be the only ones spending this month.

It's difficult, obviously, but if teams like us, Newcastle, Brighton etc can keep disrupting the "Top 6" it's possible a few of them will start to feel the pinch financially. Hopefully leading to a more level playing field.

Well both our owners and the Saudis knew the score when they invested. As I’ve said on numerous occasions you can only now spend within the rules. Both City and Chelsea have the shadow of future sanctions. There may well be a few twists in the tale to come.

[Baldy]

Thanks Saddvillan, a fascinating read.

The sooner the book is thrown at Man City the better. The rest of us are looking down the back of the sofa for 'loose change' whilst they cheat their way to trophies.

[pablo_picasso]

It's disappointing, but at least he is being honest with us.

I can accept & respect that...

Why is it disappointing? All clubs are fucked by FFP and those that take a risk are gambling big time.  I’m happy if we sign no one but if we can ship out Calum and Beet then who knows we might get someone in, but it’s not disappointing

Calm down, it's not like I said I want to take a shit on his lawn or anything.

It's always disappointing not being able to strengthen from a position of strength.

A RB would be nice for starters.

But like I said, I accept & respect the words coming from Emerys mouth because he is being honest with us...

That is the main takeaway from what I said.

[Percy McCarthy]

The accounts due are to 31 May 2023, not 30 June.

I think the were published in March last year.