Value of our players - hypothetical

[paul_e]

They'd be willing to pay it if they needed a keeper of his ability.

but they don't, so they aren't. I'm not sure how you're struggling with this idea.

[Risso]

They'd be willing to pay it if they needed a keeper of his ability.

but they don't, so they aren't. I'm not sure how you're struggling with this idea.

I'd love to be as clever and all-knowing as you Paul, I really would. But the thread title is about hypothetical values (the clue is in the title), which implies the value we'd put on them IF people wanted to buy them. If it's not that, then all you're left with is the book value in the accounts, which is largely meaningless, as it would make Kamara worth nothing for example. We haven't to my knowledge, had any bids for our recognised first team starters like McGinn, Martinez, Luiz or Watkins. Does that mean they're not worth say, £50m, £100m, £75m or £60m respectively IF people wanted to buy them?

[lovejoy]

Isn't the transfer value dependent on contract conditions, specifically how long there is to go?

[ChicagoLion]

Isn't the transfer value dependent on contract conditions, specifically how long there is to go?

yes amongst other things.

[Risso]

Isn't the transfer value dependent on contract conditions, specifically how long there is to go?

Partially, yes. But we seem quite good at extending contracts at the right time.

[paul_e]

They'd be willing to pay it if they needed a keeper of his ability.

but they don't, so they aren't. I'm not sure how you're struggling with this idea.

I'd love to be as clever and all-knowing as you Paul, I really would. But the thread title is about hypothetical values (the clue is in the title), which implies the value we'd put on them IF people wanted to buy them. If it's not that, then all you're left with is the book value in the accounts, which is largely meaningless, as it would make Kamara worth nothing for example. We haven't to my knowledge, had any bids for our recognised first team starters like McGinn, Martinez, Luiz or Watkins. Does that mean they're not worth say, £50m, £100m, £75m or £60m respectively IF people wanted to buy them?

No, they can be worth that to us but not worth it to other clubs, that's literally the point I made that you decided to argue with. Those figures might well be our asking prices but if no one is willing to pay and we don't want to sell then they're pretty meaningless.

My point was that some people will be listing prices like yours which are the sort of fees that we'd probably take even if we didn't want to sell and the player wasn't pushing to leave, in the vast majority of cases these will be values that no one would offer us, which is exactly the point of them, if you want to take our best players then you pay over the odds or you fuck off, we don't want to sell.

Other people are trying to be 'realistic' and give the sort of fees that they expect other clubs would be willing to pay, the vast majority of these are well below what it would take for us to actually think it was worth doing business so why would we, even if the player was keen (for example Luiz last summer).

Neither is a particularly realistic valuation, which is why I think the whole concept of creating a list like this is too messy.

Now it may be that Ederson breaks both legs in a freak accident tis afternoon and Man City suddenly do decide £100m is worth spending on a replacement or that Luiz calls Emery a twat in training and we decided to sell him for whatever we can get but both are extremes that are highly unlikely and are the only way those upper and lower estimates become particularly relevant.

[Monty]

The 'value' obviously would be the agreed upon selling price, which is to say the minimum price at which we'd agree to sell. Which, for almost all the examples dear old Smirk has given, is much higher than we appreciate - McGinn, for instance, would probably be incredibly expensive for a 28 year old midfielder.

[paul_e]

Isn't the transfer value dependent on contract conditions, specifically how long there is to go?

Sale value of anything is dependant on what someone is willing to accept and what someone is willing to pay. In context the amount of time on the players contract is one part of determining the figures on either side. Alongside that is how keen the team is to buy, how willing the other team is to sell, how old the player is, how much the player wants to go, how easy it would be to replace him and many other reasons.

[chrisw1]

In a world where 20 year old Livramento goes to Newcastle from Southampton for close to £40 million (despite being injured for most of his time at Soton) Matty Cash must be worth at least £50 million.

Adjust all other values accordingly.

One transfer doesn't dictate a market.  You're also dismissing the hope value of a young player developing into something special.  Cash's ability is well known and at a level where many of our fan base wanted him replaced until he scored his brace at the weekend.

Whatever Cash is worth, it has no correlation at all to the Livramento transfer.

[chrisw1]

Isn't the transfer value dependent on contract conditions, specifically how long there is to go?

Sale value of anything is dependant on what someone is willing to accept and what someone is willing to pay. In context the amount of time on the players contract is one part of determining the figures on either side. Alongside that is how keen the team is to buy, how willing the other team is to sell, how old the player is, how much the player wants to go, how easy it would be to replace him and many other reasons.

But it becomes a pointless discussion if you now try and factor in every teams requirements world wide before having a fun stab at a value.  For a hypothetical value it would be easiest if we were to assume a willing buyer and seller (acting reasonably) in each instance.

Also, the exercise only really works if you assume there's a decent amount of time on their contract left.  Watkins value will probably being to fall now.

[chrisw1]

My stab would be as follows, based on current circumstances and contracts and excluding Saudi premiums

Martínez - £100m

Cash - £25m
Konsa - £35m
Mings - £10m (if injury free then £40m)
Torres - £40m
Carlos - £15m
Digne - £15m
Moreno - £20m
Chambers - £0m

McGinn - £55m
Douglas - £90m
Kamara - £65m
Tielemens - £30m
Ramsey - £40m
Diaby - £60m
Buendia - £20m
Coutinho - £0m
Bailey - £20m
Traore - £0m
Dendoncker - £5m

Watkins - £50m (due to short contract)
Duran - £15m

[cannock villa]

Who's done these valuations, Daniel Levy

[Toronto Villa]

Value ultimately has two meanings. What the buyer values a player at and the seller. Jack Grealish wasn’t a £100m player based on other players who had been sold before him at set the precedent. However, he was to us and ultimately was to Man City. But if Spurs had been the prospective buyer, then they’d have valued him much lower and he’d still be with us. The market and willingness to buy or sell sets pricing. If a PL club came in for Douglas Luiz today, he’s closer to £100m than not just based on similar players who’ve recently been bought. Kamara, especially given his age might be the same. I don’t what is so special about Caicedo that we don’t have in Kamara.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

I need to go out in a minute so rather than argue the toss, here are my prices if we were to sell.

Martínez - £100m

Cash - £40m
Konsa - £45m
Mings - £55m
Torres - £50m
Carlos - £45m
Digne - £35m
Moreno - £35m
Chambers - £15m

McGinn - £75m
Douglas - £90m
Kamara - £80m
Tielemens - £50m
Ramsey - £85m
Diaby - £70m
Buendia - £50m
Coutinho - £25m
Bailey - £30m
Traore - £15m
Dendoncker - £25m

Watkins - £70m (with new contract signed)
Duran - £20m

Any offers need to be in by midday on the 31st of August.

[ChicagoLion]

I would love to sell at your prices and buy at mine.