Aston Villa vs Newcastle United pre match thread

[chrisw1]

As well as we've been playing I feel with been quite lucky in a few games on this run.  Unfortunately, I think Newcastle will be too good for us and our luck will run out.

[paul_e]

I don't think we've been lucky at all. In the last 8 games we've lost one and drawn one where we've been unlucky at key moments (the Arsenal 3rd and the soft penalty for West Ham) but I can't think of any goals we've scored where we've been lucky or any chances against us that have been missed where the opponent was unlucky. There have been times where an opponent should've done better but I'm not sure I'd say it's lucky if, for example, Mudryk can't kick a ball properly.

I don't think anyone (in that run) has completely outplayed us and had us hanging on, I don't think anyone has created masses of chances that they've just not been able to convert and I don't think we've had a game where we've scored from nothing.

[PaulTheVillan]

This is going to be a tough game. Newcastle (some how) have a really good defence.

I'd love it if we beat them, love it.

I'd suggest Traore deserves a start, but they to play down the wings a lot and worry we'll need our wide players to really put in a shift.

[Risso]

I don't think we've been lucky at all. In the last 8 games we've lost one and drawn one where we've been unlucky at key moments (the Arsenal 3rd and the soft penalty for West Ham) but I can't think of any goals we've scored where we've been lucky or any chances against us that have been missed where the opponent was unlucky. There have been times where an opponent should've done better but I'm not sure I'd say it's lucky if, for example, Mudryk can't kick a ball properly.

I don't think anyone (in that run) has completely outplayed us and had us hanging on, I don't think anyone has created masses of chances that they've just not been able to convert and I don't think we've had a game where we've scored from nothing.

I think you're right Paul. The one game where I think the result flattered us was Leeds at home, but back then we were still in the getting used to Emery's way of playing phase. Since then, we've controlled games and got what we deserve in all of them. We haven't played brilliantly in all of them of course, but then no team does.

[Smithy]

I don't think we've been lucky at all. In the last 8 games we've lost one and drawn one where we've been unlucky at key moments (the Arsenal 3rd and the soft penalty for West Ham) but I can't think of any goals we've scored where we've been lucky or any chances against us that have been missed where the opponent was unlucky. There have been times where an opponent should've done better but I'm not sure I'd say it's lucky if, for example, Mudryk can't kick a ball properly.

I don't think anyone (in that run) has completely outplayed us and had us hanging on, I don't think anyone has created masses of chances that they've just not been able to convert and I don't think we've had a game where we've scored from nothing.

I think you're right Paul. The one game where I think the result flattered us was Leeds at home, but back then we were still in the getting used to Emery's way of playing phase. Since then, we've controlled games and got what we deserve in all of them. We haven't played brilliantly in all of them of course, but then no team does.

I don't think we got what we deserved against Leicester at home, we were much the better side.  And though I hugely enjoyed the Chelsea win, I'm not sure I'd describe us as the better side on the day.  We had two shots on target, and scored with both of them, while conceding TWENTY SEVEN shots against our own goal.  That's worse than at the end of Dean's reign. I think those two results balance each other out though :-)

[brontebilly]

I don't think we've been lucky at all. In the last 8 games we've lost one and drawn one where we've been unlucky at key moments (the Arsenal 3rd and the soft penalty for West Ham) but I can't think of any goals we've scored where we've been lucky or any chances against us that have been missed where the opponent was unlucky. There have been times where an opponent should've done better but I'm not sure I'd say it's lucky if, for example, Mudryk can't kick a ball properly.

I don't think anyone (in that run) has completely outplayed us and had us hanging on, I don't think anyone has created masses of chances that they've just not been able to convert and I don't think we've had a game where we've scored from nothing.

I think you're right Paul. The one game where I think the result flattered us was Leeds at home, but back then we were still in the getting used to Emery's way of playing phase. Since then, we've controlled games and got what we deserve in all of them. We haven't played brilliantly in all of them of course, but then no team does.

I don't think we got what we deserved against Leicester at home, we were much the better side.  And though I hugely enjoyed the Chelsea win, I'm not sure I'd describe us as the better side on the day.  We had two shots on target, and scored with both of them, while conceding TWENTY SEVEN shots against our own goal.  That's worse than at the end of Dean's reign. I think those two results balance each other out though :-)

Arguably we were unfortunate not to win at West Ham too, their penalty was a joke of a decision, but whether we did enough after that to go on and win it I guess is debatable. The Arsenal game too, we did lose control of that game but the key third goal that beat us was a once in a season type fluke.

On the flip side, Traore has benefitted hugely from two daft defensive errors in the last two games when we were making heavy weather of beating two very average teams. Soft red card for Leicester and Forest had a guy walk/limp off, both were key moments too that went in our favour.

Just think we are running on empty a bit (likes of McGinn have played some amount of games for club and country of late) and Newcastle might expose that at the weekend. Think Emery has got away with some silly selection decisions like Ramsey on the right to accomodate Bailey in recent games. Options are increasingly limited for the weekend unfortunately. Our bench is going to be very weak.

[chrisw1]

Well it depends how you define luck (and I'm not looking for a debate on semantics Paul!)  I think payers passing directly to Bertie for his two goals is fortunate.  So is players missing open goals / easy chances - Souttar's miss was remarkable (I know it shouldn't have been a corner).  I think we were fortunate that Young got the foul for the push in the box to chalk off a goal.  VAR also disallowed Southampton goal for a pretty soft foul on Ramsey.  The Solanke offside decision was correct, but incredibly tight and could have gone either way depending on the frame VAR chose to use. 

You may not think any of this is luck, but they are moments in games that could have gone either way.  It feels to me that more have gone our way than I'd usually expect.  I've certainly been walking away from games thinking we've got away with it a bit there, which is really the only barometer I need.

I also think Watkins is taking chances at an unsustainable rate.  That's certainly not luck, but I don't think it's realistic that it will carry on either. 

[LeeB]

Well it depends how you define luck (and I'm not looking for a debate on semantics Paul!)  I think payers passing directly to Bertie for his two goals is fortunate.  So is players missing open goals / easy chances - Souttar's miss was remarkable (I know it shouldn't have been a corner).  I think we were fortunate that Young got the foul for the push in the box to chalk off a goal.  VAR also disallowed Southampton goal for a pretty soft foul on Ramsey.  The Solanke offside decision was correct, but incredibly tight and could have gone either way depending on the frame VAR chose to use. 

You may not think any of this is luck, but they are moments in games that could have gone either way.  It feels to me that more have gone our way than I'd usually expect.  I've certainly been walking away from games thinking we've got away with it a bit there, which is really the only barometer I need.

I also think Watkins is taking chances at an unsustainable rate.  That's certainly not luck, but I don't think it's realistic that it will carry on either. 

You say those misplaced passes are fortunate, but at Leicester we'd had them pinned in since the sending off with our measured, controlled play. The pressure leads to errors.

[chrisw1]

True.  But it was an incredibly bad pass, almost a perfect layoff.

[Brend'Watkins]

Well it depends how you define luck (and I'm not looking for a debate on semantics Paul!)  I think payers passing directly to Bertie for his two goals is fortunate.  So is players missing open goals / easy chances - Souttar's miss was remarkable (I know it shouldn't have been a corner).  I think we were fortunate that Young got the foul for the push in the box to chalk off a goal.  VAR also disallowed Southampton goal for a pretty soft foul on Ramsey.  The Solanke offside decision was correct, but incredibly tight and could have gone either way depending on the frame VAR chose to use. 

You may not think any of this is luck, but they are moments in games that could have gone either way.  It feels to me that more have gone our way than I'd usually expect.  I've certainly been walking away from games thinking we've got away with it a bit there, which is really the only barometer I need.

I also think Watkins is taking chances at an unsustainable rate.  That's certainly not luck, but I don't think it's realistic that it will carry on either. 

Don’t you think how we approach the game and set ourselves up as a team in an attacking sense is the reason why we get our goals?  Unforced errors like the Winner v Leicester is down to that surely. They’re down to 10 men, we’re pressing them making an unforced error more likely.

[LeeB]

It's not luck, and to say it is does a huge disservice to our manager.

[chrisw1]

It's not luck, and to say it is does a huge disservice to our manager.

You say potato.  So do I tbf, but you know what I mean.

It doesn't mean I don't think Emery is doing a good job.  I think he's great and has got us playing some excellent football.  But equally, I feel we've been fortunate with some of the results.  The chances created vs chances conceded would seem to bare this out. 

[paul_e]

Well it depends how you define luck (and I'm not looking for a debate on semantics Paul!)  I think payers passing directly to Bertie for his two goals is fortunate.  So is players missing open goals / easy chances - Souttar's miss was remarkable (I know it shouldn't have been a corner).  I think we were fortunate that Young got the foul for the push in the box to chalk off a goal.  VAR also disallowed Southampton goal for a pretty soft foul on Ramsey.  The Solanke offside decision was correct, but incredibly tight and could have gone either way depending on the frame VAR chose to use. 

You may not think any of this is luck, but they are moments in games that could have gone either way.  It feels to me that more have gone our way than I'd usually expect.  I've certainly been walking away from games thinking we've got away with it a bit there, which is really the only barometer I need.

I also think Watkins is taking chances at an unsustainable rate.  That's certainly not luck, but I don't think it's realistic that it will carry on either. 

I think players making mistakes isn't luck, it's something that happens as a result of pressure, that includes misplaced passes and missed chances.

The others are all 'correct' decisions. You might think some of them were lucky but I don't think any were as bad as the one given against in the west ham game and none were even close to the genuinely bad decisions over the last weekend. Brighton were unlucky to come up against a ref and VAR that fucked them over repeatedly, no one we've played can have a legitimate complaint like that.

[Drummond]

Luck works both ways.

[pauliewalnuts]

Luck works both ways.

Indeed.

If there's a definition of luck here, what kind of luck does going ahead against Arsenal twice, being at 2-2 on 93 minutes and having a shot bounce down off the bar, off the back of the keeper's head and in represent?