Are we progressing quickly enough?

[SaddVillan]

Now that we've got a new manager/coach, I thought I'd have a look at our performances since 2018 to get some perspective.

18-19 promoted via play-offs
19-20 - 17th survived on the last day after project restart
20-21 - 11th Grealish sold post season
21-22 - 14th Smith replaced by SG
22-23 -? SG replaced by Emery.

I reckon you need to build several squads to get into and then to progress in the Premier League:

One that gets you promoted
One to stay up/become "established"
One to push for Uefa spots
One to win trophies.

Wonder where we are in this progression?

As an illustration of the changes that we've made since coming up,
of the promotion squad, only  McGinn, Mings, JJ Ramsey and Jed  Steer are still in the first team squad. Kortney Hause and Keinan Davis are out on loan at Watford.

In comparison, of the squad that Ron Saunders got us promoted with in 74-75, none were still with us in 80-81. Obviously Saunders was able to develop, change and build the team as he wanted and was given time.

Will we give Emery time - the patience of fans and pundit pressure seems lesser and greater respectively these days

[Paul.S]

Hopefully coming towards the end of the established, moving towards the UEFA next season. I don’t see why we can’t, with another 3/4 in challenge 7th next season now we’ve got a coach who’s proven.

[eamonn]

Don't post such a thread minutes before a game! It's bad juju

[Gaztonniller]

Going into today's game v Brighton confident of a good result and actually ending up with three points shows the progression.

A difficult match against a form team, who are very good at home what more could you ask so early in Unai's tenure.

Its a nice feeling when you know the clubs in good managerial hands.

[Steve67]

We wasted a year with Gerrard but are hopefully now back on track.  That said, there is no God given right to progression, see Wolves, Southampton, Leeds, etc.  Personally, I think the better question to ask is, what do we need to do to progress?

[SaddVillan]

Don't post such a thread minutes before a game! It's bad juju

Think we'll all take that kind of juju. :-)

[dave.woodhall]

Yes.

[MplsVilla]

I think Emery will be given time, if the owners see sufficient progress. Every club wants to see progress or a plan. City would seriously consider replacing Pep if they could not make the top 4 with that squad and I think Liverpool may be thinking the same if they do not finish within touching distance of the top 5 and/or have a good Champions league run.

As this applies to Emery, I think the owners would see a top half finish as sufficient progress (not wild success) this season and at least challenging the top 7 next season. This is based on the capabilities of the squad, the competence of the Manager and the likely financial support he will get in the next two transfer windows. Stating the obvious, but if we look like getting relegated in either season, then all bets are off.

[London Villan]

But in football you don't get (lots of) time. The game moves too quickly. Look at Newcastle - dead and buried this time last year, now challenging for Europe. Spurs, Champs League final a couple of years ago, now also rans. You can't expect steady, linear progress over 5 years...

Progress has to come relatively quickly, otherwise you lose players and teams overtake you.

Even now, we should be aiming for Europe this season (hence the frustration with the League Cup exit) as you can guarantee the competition is only going to get tougher.

[algy]

I guess my expectations are for slow and faltering progress.

Faltering - you're always going to end up having rough patches, and things not going to plan - Joe leaving was an obvious one.  I would expect us to have moved forward over a given a 2- or 3- year period, though.

Slow - especially as we move towards the Champions League places, I expect that it'll become increasingly difficult to move up the league table.  There's a whole bunch of teams - about a dozen of them in the PL - who simply don't have the resources we do to compete on a long term basis.  These are clubs that we ought to be able to muscle ahead of.  Deano managed to take us near to the top of that pile, Gerrard couldn't.  I'm sorry, I just don't see 8th as being anything other than the top of a pile of clubs who we ought to always finish ahead of barring the odd freak season (maybe Everton shouldn't be placed in that group, but they're going through a very rough patch right now).

It's going to be much harder to usurp Manc City, Newcastle (oil money), Chelsea, Manc Utd (recent history of success), Spurs, Arsenal (high commercial income), and Liverpool (successful and high commercial income).  I expect it'll be a case of waiting for a slip up, and taking our chances.  But I can see the move from 8th to 5th will take a long, sustained push over a number of seasons.  The good part of that will be that I think Emery can do that, and that once we're there we'll be bloody hard to shift out of that group.

[Risso]

I guess my expectations are for slow and faltering progress.

Faltering - you're always going to end up having rough patches, and things not going to plan - Joe leaving was an obvious one.  I would expect us to have moved forward over a given a 2- or 3- year period, though.

Slow - especially as we move towards the Champions League places, I expect that it'll become increasingly difficult to move up the league table.  There's a whole bunch of teams - about a dozen of them in the PL - who simply don't have the resources we do to compete on a long term basis.  These are clubs that we ought to be able to muscle ahead of.  Deano managed to take us near to the top of that pile, Gerrard couldn't.  I'm sorry, I just don't see 8th as being anything other than the top of a pile of clubs who we ought to always finish ahead of barring the odd freak season (maybe Everton shouldn't be placed in that group, but they're going through a very rough patch right now).

It's going to be much harder to usurp Manc City, Newcastle (oil money), Chelsea, Manc Utd (recent history of success), Spurs, Arsenal (high commercial income), and Liverpool (successful and high commercial income).  I expect it'll be a case of waiting for a slip up, and taking our chances.  But I can see the move from 8th to 5th will take a long, sustained push over a number of seasons.  The good part of that will be that I think Emery can do that, and that once we're there we'll be bloody hard to shift out of that group.

To be fair though, Newcastle seem to be having a go without spending very much at all (relatively speaking) yet. Somtimes one or two excellent players can make a massive difference, as well as getting the best out of what you have.

[algy]

To be fair though, Newcastle seem to be having a go without spending very much at all (relatively speaking) yet. Somtimes one or two excellent players can make a massive difference, as well as getting the best out of what you have.

Well, I'd wait until the end of the season before deciding how well Newcastle have done.  The problem with having 1 or 2 excellent players that make the difference, is that it only takes 1 or 2 injuries to derail a season - see Grealish, Joe in 2021.

I don't want us to compete with the Scab 6.  I want us to be counted in the 'Big 4', having long left several members of the current 'Big 7' in our dust.

[chrisw1]

I think the answer is no.  Newcastles improvement has been exceptional though and for what they spent, particulalry in the first season, they have punched well above their (current) weight.  Howe deserves enrormous credit turning round such a basket case so quickly.

As for us, I'd say we've wasted a year on Gerrard.  I think we gave Smith the right amount of time but if we're honest he rarely got the team playing well when Jack wasn't playing.  If we were being harder nosed about it we could possibly have made the call 6 months earlier.

I think man for man our squad is a lot better than many people seem to think it is.  We should defintely have been top 10 last season and should top 8 this. 

[aj2k77]

No. We've progressed at a snails pace, held back largely by a terrible managerial choice and having Smith in situ for a tad too long. The appointment of Emery suggests we're ready to do this properly now. I'd like to see Lange replaced for someone who's used to dealing with bigger transfer budgets.

[The Edge]

Yes and no. I think things were going according to plan and Deano earned the right to be given extra leway but ultimately he found his glass ceiling. The gamble on Gerrard is what slowed progress down somewhat. But we've got Emery now and that should get us back on track. Hopefully.