Summer Transfer Thread - The Verdict.

[Clampy]

Maybe the wider economic conditions would have been thought of when the season ticket prices were considered. I can't see transfer fees having anything to do with it.

[Risso]

One thing to consider is that maybe the owners are looking at the economic storms that are about to hit us 

Perhaps they are finding it hard to justify spending £30m on a player when many fans may soon be faced with the choice of taking the family to VP or keeping the house warm and food on the table

Maybe I’m thinking too deeply

Of course you are. They're American and Egyptian billionaires, currently planning to spend a quarter of a billion on establishing a Las Vegas MIL team. What you suggest won't even have occurred to them.

They are successful business people

They would have considered the wider economic conditions

They may have chosen to ignore them but I don’t agree it would never have occurred to them

Your first two statements contradict each other completely. Sorry but it's absolute nonsense. They're paying Coutinho £200K a week, but they're going to baulk at buying another £30m player because of fuel bills? Nah. They'd agreed a fee for Sarr, for one thing.

[Risso]

Maybe the wider economic conditions would have been thought of when the season ticket prices were considered. I can't see transfer fees having anything to do with it.

They put all the prices up, so they can't have considered them for very long.

[brontebilly]

One thing to consider is that maybe the owners are looking at the economic storms that are about to hit us 

Perhaps they are finding it hard to justify spending £30m on a player when many fans may soon be faced with the choice of taking the family to VP or keeping the house warm and food on the table

Maybe I’m thinking too deeply

They turned down 25m yesterday for a player who will leave for free next summer.

Maybe they're confident of him signing a new contract if/when Gerrard gets the boot.

Post a world cup with Brazil, I highly doubt it. I wouldn't really put the Luiz situation down to Gerrard. He has always been publicly supportive of him and given him plenty of game time. He hasn't exactly made himself undroppable.

I just hope he doesn't sulk until January with half assed performances.

[frank]

I think the positive way to look at it is that the board/owners have lost faith in the manager - presumably when we showed up to Bournemouth with no idea how to play despite a full preseason. They don’t want to give him any more money, which may be wasted. He hasn’t shown any indication that he can improve players, so any player we buy under his management will presumably decrease in value. It doesn’t represent a good investment. I don't know what happened with the Ismaïla Sarr-ga, but it certainly suggests that the manager and the board weren't on the same wavelength.

So why is he still here? I can only assume it is timing now. They felt they couldn’t sack him on deadline day, or on the eve of a match against Man City, so they are holding back - hoping for a miracle tomorrow, but planning for the most likely outcome. It is quite telling that neither of our signings yesterday mentioned the manager in the quotes on the official site.

The other theory is that the owners have scaled back their ambition. I don’t want to believe this, so without knowing for sure either way, I am choosing to not believe it. The stadium expansion plans for the Villa ‘franchise’ are big - they won’t work for a team scrapping against relegation every year - we need European football and we need it quickly. They know this, and are working towards it, it’s just a mistake was made last year that we need to correct before we get back on the right path. Money will be made available to the new manager, who will be ambitious and exciting.

A very good piece, boozey.
I've been coming to Villa Park since the 1950s. I never want Villa to lose but at the moment I feel as I did towards the end of Lambert - let's get it over with as soon as possible, rebuild the team and their confidence and win back the supporters. Like you, I want to believe that the owners are still planning to take us to the next level and won't, like Lerner, just lose interest.

[Clive W]

One thing to consider is that maybe the owners are looking at the economic storms that are about to hit us 

Perhaps they are finding it hard to justify spending £30m on a player when many fans may soon be faced with the choice of taking the family to VP or keeping the house warm and food on the table

Maybe I’m thinking too deeply

Of course you are. They're American and Egyptian billionaires, currently planning to spend a quarter of a billion on establishing a Las Vegas MIL team. What you suggest won't even have occurred to them.

They are successful business people

They would have considered the wider economic conditions

They may have chosen to ignore them but I don’t agree it would never have occurred to them

Your first two statements contradict each other completely. Sorry but it's absolute nonsense. They're paying Coutinho £200K a week, but they're going to baulk at buying another £30m player because of fuel bills? Nah. They'd agreed a fee for Sarr, for one thing.

But lots of things have changed very rapidly Risso

Coutinho’s wages were fixed months ago, as were season ticket prices. Way before the latest energy forecasts of £6,000 a year

I’m just making the point that they would be aware, as we all are, of the coming economic shit show

[ASHTONVILLA]

I just hope he doesn't sulk until January with half assed performances.

How would we notice the difference!

[Lastfootstamper]

One thing to consider is that maybe the owners are looking at the economic storms that are about to hit us 

Perhaps they are finding it hard to justify spending £30m on a player when many fans may soon be faced with the choice of taking the family to VP or keeping the house warm and food on the table

Maybe I’m thinking too deeply

Of course you are. They're American and Egyptian billionaires, currently planning to spend a quarter of a billion on establishing a Las Vegas MIL team. What you suggest won't even have occurred to them.

They are successful business people

They would have considered the wider economic conditions

They may have chosen to ignore them but I don’t agree it would never have occurred to them

Your first two statements contradict each other completely. Sorry but it's absolute nonsense. They're paying Coutinho £200K a week, but they're going to baulk at buying another £30m player because of fuel bills? Nah. They'd agreed a fee for Sarr, for one thing.

But lots of things have changed very rapidly Risso

Coutinho’s wages were fixed months ago, as were season ticket prices. Way before the latest energy forecasts of £6,000 a year

I’m just making the point that they would be aware, as we all are, of the coming economic shit show

There is nothing they can do about people's bills other than actually giving them money to pay for them. If anybody wanted to get upset about football's profligacy in the face of society's wider inequalities, that particular boat, if it indeed ever existed, disappeared over the horizon at least a generation ago.

Personally, in times of hardship one tends to take joy where one can find it, and if those instances come from the on field exploits of your football team's marquee signing, I doubt there's many that wouldn't take them because they're having to listen on the radio as they can't afford to put the game on the telly.

[Drummond]

My take is that it's petered out but has been ok.

We got Coutinho and Digne early in January; I say early because I don't think we'd have signed Digne other than the factthat the opportunity arose because of the shit at Everton. Coutinho came because he knew Gerrard. It was a coup. To therefore confirm the permanent deal for Coutinho in the summer was good business.

We got a back up keeper, who is a full international.
We got a back up left back, who is a full international.
We got a high-quality Centre Back, who got inured, who we've now covered with another full international.
We've got the fabled Defensive Midfielder we said was the final piece that we needed.
We've now gone out and got another solid player in midfield, a full international no less.

We've done a lot of loans for our younger players, and retained another who clearly will go, instead of us cashing in.

The fact we almost had Sarr over the line is really puzzling, we didn't go for someone similar, or push that deal. I don't get it at all.

I'm also confused about the system and having let all our wide players go without replacing them. Bizarre.

[olaftab]

General rule of thumb ratio is 1 to 5 and it applies to every club. For every 1 thoroughbred there are 5 donkeys bought. This is regardless of money spent on any one individual and applies to everyone from Man city to Birmingham City.

[Exeter 77]

This transfer window has been much like many of our games. Started well but descended into panic near the end.

[UK Redsox]

I think that my problems with this transfer window are due to things that aren't really to do with this transfer window, ie Diego Carlos getting injured and Phil C being mostly average and not worth a place in the starting XI

[ASHTONVILLA]

My take is that it's petered out but has been ok.

We got Coutinho and Digne early in January; I say early because I don't think we'd have signed Digne other than the factthat the opportunity arose because of the shit at Everton. Coutinho came because he knew Gerrard. It was a coup. To therefore confirm the permanent deal for Coutinho in the summer was good business.

We got a back up keeper, who is a full international.
We got a back up left back, who is a full international.
We got a high-quality Centre Back, who got inured, who we've now covered with another full international.
We've got the fabled Defensive Midfielder we said was the final piece that we needed.
We've now gone out and got another solid player in midfield, a full international no less.

We've done a lot of loans for our younger players, and retained another who clearly will go, instead of us cashing in.

The fact we almost had Sarr over the line is really puzzling, we didn't go for someone similar, or push that deal. I don't get it at all.

I'm also confused about the system and having let all our wide players go without replacing them. Bizarre.

Agree with most of that.

I would have preferred Iroegbunam to stay.

I would have liked to see Luiz shifted out, as I think we would have got a Teilemans rather than a Dedonkar had we moved either him or Sanson on.

I would have liked to have seen a striker come in, and not doing that has put us firmly behind Newcastle who went big on Isaak.

7 out of 10 for me, but with the bad luck on Carlos it feels more like a 5 out of 10.

In the end though we need to look at our squad improvement in the context of the other teams we are meant to be rivalling. Namely those looking to finish in a Europa league spot - West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves. We have lost ground on all of them.

It will be better to judge this when we have a new manager, as Gerrard has made such a dogs breakfast of the formation and coaching that the squad may well be much better than it looks right now.

[eamonn]

We're not paying Coutinho £200k a week, are we? Ugh...that could be the final nail in Gerrard's coffin if he lasts long enough but can't get him to change games every now and again.

[gpbarr]

I think the positive way to look at it is that the board/owners have lost faith in the manager - presumably when we showed up to Bournemouth with no idea how to play despite a full preseason. They don’t want to give him any more money, which may be wasted. He hasn’t shown any indication that he can improve players, so any player we buy under his management will presumably decrease in value. It doesn’t represent a good investment. I don't know what happened with the Ismaïla Sarr-ga, but it certainly suggests that the manager and the board weren't on the same wavelength.

So why is he still here? I can only assume it is timing now. They felt they couldn’t sack him on deadline day, or on the eve of a match against Man City, so they are holding back - hoping for a miracle tomorrow, but planning for the most likely outcome. It is quite telling that neither of our signings yesterday mentioned the manager in the quotes on the official site.

The other theory is that the owners have scaled back their ambition. I don’t want to believe this, so without knowing for sure either way, I am choosing to not believe it. The stadium expansion plans for the Villa ‘franchise’ are big - they won’t work for a team scrapping against relegation every year - we need European football and we need it quickly. They know this, and are working towards it, it’s just a mistake was made last year that we need to correct before we get back on the right path. Money will be made available to the new manager, who will be ambitious and exciting.

A very good piece, boozey.
I've been coming to Villa Park since the 1950s. I never want Villa to lose but at the moment I feel as I did towards the end of Lambert - let's get it over with as soon as possible, rebuild the team and their confidence and win back the supporters. Like you, I want to believe that the owners are still planning to take us to the next level and won't, like Lerner, just lose interest.

I'm pretty confident its the former. Not much is known about NS but Wes is a serious sport investor and if you follow the story of his ownership of the Milwaukee Bucks, you'll see parallels with the early moves he has engineered at Villa. He isn't a guy who bails - "patience" is a word he used a lot in his early years at the Bucks. Plus NSWE net worth has, based on media reports, rocketed over the last 2-3 years - the Bucks alone have tripled their valuation.

He is a successful businessman, and ruthless with it - and will know that relegation would both devalue their investment to date, and threaten the entire project. Since SG arrived, they have invested something like $180m net in player personnel (transfer fees plus player contracts). But looking at the results (and equally the performances), you'd never believe it. 

I'm 100% behind them. But as I said on the Gerrard thread, the next big decision is one they need to make very soon. Get rid of SG and the busload of coaches he brought with him. Make sure there is a robust and thorough recruitment process for his successor (no more vanity projects). Re-energize the project. Invest heavily in January once the new manager has had a chance to evaluate.

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