Gerrard In or Out?

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

Looking back at when Smith was sacked.
https://www.avfc.co.uk/news/2021/november/07/club-statement-dean-smith/

"...this year we have not seen the continuous improvement in results, performances and league position which we have all been looking for".

Hmm, exactly the same could be said now.

purslow even went on to say...
"For this reason we have decided to make a change now to allow time for a new head coach to make an impact."
I know he loves the sound of his own voice, but there are times when he really should STFU!

[Risso]

Looking back at when Smith was sacked.
https://www.avfc.co.uk/news/2021/november/07/club-statement-dean-smith/

"...this year we have not seen the continuous improvement in results, performances and league position which we have all been looking for".

Hmm, exactly the same could be said now.

purslow even went on to say...
"For this reason we have decided to make a change now to allow time for a new head coach to make an impact."
I know he loves the sound of his own voice, but there are times when he really should STFU!

That's what every chairman says after every managerial change.

[Drummond]

If our stated target was to make sure stay in the league, and anything else is a bonus then I think there would be less fuss

I won't go through the numbers again for fear of boring Drummond ( ), but after the start we had under Smith, the highest realistic finishing position was 9th. Anything above that would just have required a points per game ratio that I don't think is feasible given the players we have. Given where we are, I think in my view the following finishing positions should be viewed as follows:

9th - an excellent position, as good as could have been hoped for, look forward to the summer and next season with confidence
10th - very good, first top half finish in years, an improvement
11th - about par, same position as last year, slightly underwhelming but given the start still acceptable
12th - underwhelming and disappointing, lots to do in the summer
13th - getting into the very disappointing arena now
14th - oh well, at least we finished higher than Leeds
15th - we didn't finish higher than Leeds? Fucking hell.
16th - behind Burnley as well? Gerrard o...
17th - ...ut!

You go for it. I'm interested.

Given your descriptions above though, I'm surprised you're as happy and calm as you appear.... :-)

[paul_e]

If our stated target was to make sure stay in the league, and anything else is a bonus then I think there would be less fuss

I won't go through the numbers again for fear of boring Drummond ( ), but after the start we had under Smith, the highest realistic finishing position was 9th. Anything above that would just have required a points per game ratio that I don't think is feasible given the players we have. Given where we are, I think in my view the following finishing positions should be viewed as follows:

9th - an excellent position, as good as could have been hoped for, look forward to the summer and next season with confidence
10th - very good, first top half finish in years, an improvement
11th - about par, same position as last year, slightly underwhelming but given the start still acceptable
12th - underwhelming and disappointing, lots to do in the summer
13th - getting into the very disappointing arena now
14th - oh well, at least we finished higher than Leeds
15th - we didn't finish higher than Leeds? Fucking hell.
16th - behind Burnley as well? Gerrard o...
17th - ...ut!

You go for it. I'm interested.

Given your descriptions above though, I'm surprised you're as happy and calm as you appear.... :-)

To be fair we're 4 points off a 'par' finish from that list and have games in hand over most of the teams we'd need to overtake, with some decent games to come.

[eamonn]

However we finish, our points total will likely be a fair bit down on last season. Is that another stick to beat the team with or, ultimately, because each season's league table is relative to all the teams in that given year only; should it matter whether 55 points gets you 11th (like us last season - only 5 points less than our first 6th-placed position under MON when we scored 71 league goals in 07/08!), or if 9th place only requires 48 points (us in 2010/11, Houllier/Gary Mac's first spell)?

You could argue that the latter was a pointer towards a team closer to the bottom than the top. But yeah...it's funny how a points target (like the fabled 40, to be sure of non-relegation) is sometimes well off what's required position-wise.

[AV82EC]

Last season was a statistical outlier for an 11th place finish, 55pts usually gets you 8th from recollection. I’d put that down to 95% of the season being behind closed doors.

[olaftab]

Apologies as that triumph for the entire nation in 1967 by the Flower
of Scotland Jock Stein had not been on my radar.

Totally understandable, you'd have been too young to remember it anyway.

<<like>>

[chrisw1]

Looking back at when Smith was sacked.
https://www.avfc.co.uk/news/2021/november/07/club-statement-dean-smith/

"...this year we have not seen the continuous improvement in results, performances and league position which we have all been looking for".

Hmm, exactly the same could be said now.

It could and despite some bright moments Gerrard's tenure has been pretty dissapointing so far, particulalry bearing in mind the money spent on Coutinho and Digne.  But this isn't his team, it's mostly the team Smith assembled at huge cost (he may not have hand picked all the players but ultimately it's his squad).  The time to judge Gerrard is once he has had time to bring in his own players and get his philiosphy over to the team in the close season.  The downside of that is we will have blown another £100m + by then on a manager I'm not yet convinced about. But that's the path we're on now so I guess we'll have to see how it pans out.

[Brend'Watkins]

So he gets till Christmas then?  The problem I have is that I see no distinct style of play except that we seem to play very narrow.  We should be getting more out of this squad of players. 

[Drummond]

If it's all about changing half the team, then that would suggest our model is fucked.

[Clark W Griswold]

Looking back at when Smith was sacked.
https://www.avfc.co.uk/news/2021/november/07/club-statement-dean-smith/

"...this year we have not seen the continuous improvement in results, performances and league position which we have all been looking for".

Hmm, exactly the same could be said now.

It could and despite some bright moments Gerrard's tenure has been pretty dissapointing so far, particulalry bearing in mind the money spent on Coutinho and Digne.  But this isn't his team, it's mostly the team Smith assembled at huge cost (he may not have hand picked all the players but ultimately it's his squad).  The time to judge Gerrard is once he has had time to bring in his own players and get his philiosphy over to the team in the close season.  The downside of that is we will have blown another £100m + by then on a manager I'm not yet convinced about. But that's the path we're on now so I guess we'll have to see how it pans out.

Agree with most of that, but you have highlighted the dilemma. I'm not sure we do have to see how it pans out, there has to be a line and i think if he picks up say only 3 more points or less this season he will, for me anyway, have shown over the course of his time with us that he's not the man to take us forward and not to be trusted with spending the clubs money re-building so i would make a change. On the other hand, if we do have a decent finish then we should do the decent thing and give him the chance. It really is a fine line at the moment, and i think a lot of that is because he was so unproven when we appointed him.

[chrisw1]

My only problem with judging him right now is that any manager trying to get a tune out of our current team is doing so with one hand tied behind their back because of a lack of a decent DM.  An issue most of us have identified for 2 seasons now and I feel the recruitment team have been pretty negligent not sorting it out in the last 2 or 3 windows.

Maybe the Coutinho project took precedence because of the thinking of where a signing like that may have been able to catipult us, but not going the extra mile to get a DM in Jan has hurt our season badly in my opinion.  And there's a strong chance we're going to be much less attractive to payers in the summer than we would have been in Jan when there was still huge uncertainty over Newcastle's future and we were basking in the flush of a high profile manager and world class player signing. 

[Clark W Griswold]

Yep, all good points. For me, although a judgement shouldn't be made right now i think one should and most likely will be after the next 6 games. I actually think he'll probably do just enough to keep the major doubts away.

[curiousorange]

The DM thing is really annoying. Not wanting to pay January prices is understandable, but if Gerrard's system is so dependent on breaking up play if the ball is repelled in our attacks and doesn't work without it, not having one (or at the very least giving a temporary replacement very basic and specific instructions to do it) seems negligent. There's a few issues to raise here: could the system not be changed to be pragmatic about Nakamba's loss? Could Luiz or McGinn not be coached into that exact role, even if the fit's not perfect? If we do get a DM, are we going to be in a Grealish-style lose every game situation if said player gets injured?

I think that's my major beef with Gerrard - I can't play the way I want with these players, so I won't bother then.

[sid1964]

When you have a team made up mainly of good Championship players and average Premier league players, the highest we can reasonably expect to finish is 11th

If we are to improve in the summer we need at least 4 top class players who will go straight into the side, otherwise I can only see us finishing mid table or below again next season.