FFP

[chrisw1]

There does seem to be a lot of confusion out there.

This is my laymans assessment (sorry Sexual).  The 22/23 accounts are both the third, second and first year of a 3 year rolling FFP period.

2023 - For the 3 year period ending 2023, Dogtanian has confirmed the key point, if we had breached FFP for that 3 year period we would already have been charged like Everton and Forest.

2024 - obviously last years loss makes complying with the 3 year period ending this June much more difficult - and that is where the speculation that we will have to sell by end June has come from.  Personally, I think that is highly unlikely as I just can't see us having made the Jan signings if that was true.  As many have pointed out our spending has gone up, but so has our income.  It may ultimately rest on our league position and progress un the UCL, but if we've left ourselves that tight then someone needs shooting.

2025 - IF we do end up selling a major player after June this year, I assume it will be to mainly to allow us more manoeuvrability to do some work on the squad for next season, as opposed to it being a fire sale.

 

[olaftab]

BBC article today on our finances should you wish to read it:

www.bbc.com/sport/football/68476722

Looking at the photo on that, they're going to try and cut costs by making the Prize where it Lies game much more difficult.

You mean a bit like HT on Saturday, where the lifted the target before a ball was kicked?

[Demitri_C]

I think that there will be alot of clubs in this situation.  I think spurs will make some major losses as will arsenal.

[ChicagoLion]

There does seem to be a lot of confusion out there.

This is my laymans assessment (sorry Sexual).  The 22/23 accounts are both the third, second and first year of a 3 year rolling FFP period.

2023 - For the 3 year period ending 2023, Dogtanian has confirmed the key point, if we had breached FFP for that 3 year period we would already have been charged like Everton and Forest.

2024 - obviously last years loss makes complying with the 3 year period ending this June much more difficult - and that is where the speculation that we will have to sell by end June has come from.  Personally, I think that is highly unlikely as I just can't see us having made the Jan signings if that was true.  As many have pointed out our spending has gone up, but so has our income.  It may ultimately rest on our league position and progress un the UCL, but if we've left ourselves that tight then someone needs shooting.

2025 - IF we do end up selling a major player after June this year, I assume it will be to mainly to allow us more manoeuvrability to do some work on the squad for next season, as opposed to it being a fire sale.

I think this is a fair assessment.

[Dave]

I think that there will be alot of clubs in this situation.  I think spurs will make some major losses as will arsenal.

Spurs have got their version of the Grealish money from the Kane sale though.

[pauliewalnuts]

There does seem to be a lot of confusion out there.

This is my laymans assessment (sorry Sexual).  The 22/23 accounts are both the third, second and first year of a 3 year rolling FFP period.

2023 - For the 3 year period ending 2023, Dogtanian has confirmed the key point, if we had breached FFP for that 3 year period we would already have been charged like Everton and Forest.

2024 - obviously last years loss makes complying with the 3 year period ending this June much more difficult - and that is where the speculation that we will have to sell by end June has come from.  Personally, I think that is highly unlikely as I just can't see us having made the Jan signings if that was true.  As many have pointed out our spending has gone up, but so has our income.  It may ultimately rest on our league position and progress un the UCL, but if we've left ourselves that tight then someone needs shooting.

2025 - IF we do end up selling a major player after June this year, I assume it will be to mainly to allow us more manoeuvrability to do some work on the squad for next season, as opposed to it being a fire sale.

 

You are kind of right, but I think you're underestimating the challenge this current year is going to pose.

Looking at twitter and the discussions around this, I think there is a bit of confusion over the term "Villa have got FFP problems".

Some people seem to think that means problems right now, ie that we are in breach - and we are not. So, strictly speaking, right now it isn't a problem, because as you said, of the nature of the three year rolling calculation.

The figures for the 3 years in these accounts are +300k, -£37m, -£120m. After all the deductions of allowables, we're inside the £105m.

The problem is that from next accounts (ie this season), the two previous years that will add to the calculation don't include the Grealish year (the small profit year), so we start from a base of 157m from two years, which puts us on the back foot really quickly.

But on the flip side - looking at what will constitute the 3rd year in that total, we sold Archer £19m, Ramsey £14m, Philogene £5m, Azaz £3m, in that period - that's £41m in home grown players, which means we can book all of that against 'next' year.  Side point - for all the (understandable) anguish around selling Archer and Ramsey in the summer, this is exactly why. So we're starting that year from a position of strength. We also have Danny Ings off the books, too. In that period we've signed the Serbian RB kid and Rodgers, for a total of, what, 18m or so, so they'll be across 5 years - £3.6m a year total, not a huge amount.

If we finish 4th, we're going to pick up more prize money, more tv money. Commercial revenue will be higher this year, yes, and we'll have a little bit of Conference League revenue to the pot, but not a huge amount - apparently £5m thus far, which would go up to £12m for winning it plus a bit of tv money from UEFA.

I am not sure about the Adidas deal, I guess that all depends on when it starts, whether it's inside this current financial year or not - and tbh, we also have no idea how much more that is worth than the Castore deal.

Again, though, what I don't get is we've seemingly got the money to invest in the stadium to increase our money making potential (look at Spurs' insane uplift from their new stadium - I appreciate we'd never earn that much because London etc etc, but even so) but have opted not to do it.

Short of somehow going on a truly insane period of hoovering up trophies, I just don't see how we really build something that can be mid-long term competitive without improving or replacing the stadium (let alone, given how many of our peers have already done it or are planning to).

[Somniloquism]

I think that there will be alot of clubs in this situation.  I think spurs will make some major losses as will arsenal.

Spurs have got their version of the Grealish money from the Kane sale though.

And Spam/ Brighton for similar reasons. Chelsea will be interesting though although they always seem to be ahead on how to structure stuff to get around FFP.

[pauliewalnuts]

I think that there will be alot of clubs in this situation.  I think spurs will make some major losses as will arsenal.

Spurs have got their version of the Grealish money from the Kane sale though.

And Spam/ Brighton for similar reasons. Chelsea will be interesting though although they always seem to be ahead on how to structure stuff to get around FFP.

Chelsea have brought in an insane amount of money from selling home grown players in recent years, though. I think they are alright for now, but pretty soon if they fail more than once to reach the champions league, or fail to find a home grown gem to sell, they're going to have problems.

[lovejoy]

Why has the FFP limit of £105m not changed with inflation?

[Somniloquism]

Why has the FFP limit of £105m not changed with inflation?

That is one of the changes being requested by clubs and will probably be voted threw.

[lovejoy]

As an accountant, if we or any club breach these regulations, given the fixed nature of transfers and wages, and tv money on the income side, the management need shooting. It isn't that complicated to comply. I am worried about 2023/4 and the qualification for C: is irrelevant here. If we were that tight we wouldn't have been stupid enough to buy Rogers surely?

[Dogtanian]

I'm not sure about all this inflation and FFP thing.

The big issue with FFP is buying players and paying them. Yes, stadium costs and paying catering staff and kit washers and retail people and everything goes up with inflation, but nobody is paying players more wages simply because the cost of the weekly shop has gone up £50. And Eric and Tina's wage for slowly selling pies and pints every other week are not tipping clubs into the abyss.

Raising the limit will just mean higher transfer fees and higher wages to soak it all up again and we're back where we started.

[itbrvilla]

Problem will be if we need to shift players and everyone else is in the same spot. How many teams are realistically going to attempt to sign Dougie, Ramsay, Kamara etc. for £50m+?

[Chris Harte]

I had a quick look at the prize money for next season's Champions League. €20m+ just for being in the competition. €2.1m per match won. And there are other payouts that appeared significant although I can't remember what they are now.

Meanwhile, winning the Conference League nets around €20m.

In short, if we qualify, I think we'll be adding to the squad rather than selling our stars.

[pauliewalnuts]

How many teams are realistically going to attempt to sign Dougie, Ramsay, Kamara etc. for £50m+?

Plenty would pay well above 50m for Luiz and probably Kamara too.

The positive is that we have - and nobody wants to take this option, but it's way better to at least have it than not - plenty of players we could sell for a lot of money and pocket almost all of it. Luiz, for example, has been here, what, four years? He'll be off the books in terms of amortisation. Sell him to someone for 80m and we're pocketing all of it.

Imagine how much we could get for Watkins - again, if we had to. It's fucking grim thinking we might have to do things like this and shows how insane FFP's implementation is, but we are in a better position than most. What would be horrific would be being in that situation and not having sellable assets as a last chance escape route.