FFP

[kippaxvilla2]

https://x.com/johntownley11/status/1928049834436579839?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[PaulWinch again]

I’m glad that’s the case - it’d be mad, given the level of competition, to have a plan that is too reliant on Champions League revenue.

[pauliewalnuts]

I’m glad that’s the case - it’d be mad, given the level of competition, to have a plan that is too reliant on Champions League revenue.

Genuinely, did people (ie the media) really think we'd be stupid enough to do a Leeds-style 'now we've got there once, let's plan for being there every season' thing?

[paul_e]

I think next season things will be much easier in terms of PSR.

We had a big loss in 22/23 and another big loss in 23/24 which by all accounts left us squeezing just inside the rules. With the first of those 2 dropping off, and this likely to be the last season of PSR we're in a much safer position.

I wouldn't be shocked if we announce a profit for 24/25 given the £100m in extra revenue and £40m surplus in player trading. That being the case we probably have a lot of leeway for those rules.

The one that is going to be tougher are the UEFA 70% wages rule which I suspect we're running very tight to, and if revenue does drop as a result of missing out on the Champions League that will be what makes us take some steps to reduce the wage bill.

However, because we have space to crystallise a loss or 2 I wouldn't be shocked if we try to negotiate Coutinho and Dendoncker going for free/cheap to save something like £10-12m a year.

Add to that sales of players we either don't want or can live without and I think we can probably get that under control pretty easily but we may well need to let people go so we can refresh the squad, which seems to be the same message that's coming from the club.

[LeeS]

The profit in player trading is harder to calculate. You can’t just say we spent less than we took in this year. Our receipts have to account for how much was left to amortise on a prior contract. And our outgoings are spread across the lengths of new contracts.

So we don’t just add £50m for Diaby and deduct £50m for Onana. We deduct the balance of Diaby’s non-amortised purchase from his £50m but we only have to account for 20% of Onana’s.

Which sounds great except we are still accounting for portions of Bailey’s, Pau’s, Nexeljkovic’s, Moreno’s, Coutinho’s, Dendoncker’s and even Buendia’s transfers from prior years.

[N'ZMAV]

Purslow fucked the wagebill. And it's been on the slide ever since.

[paul_e]

The profit in player trading is harder to calculate. You can’t just say we spent less than we took in this year. Our receipts have to account for how much was left to amortise on a prior contract. And our outgoings are spread across the lengths of new contracts.

So we don’t just add £50m for Diaby and deduct £50m for Onana. We deduct the balance of Diaby’s non-amortised purchase from his £50m but we only have to account for 20% of Onana’s.

Which sounds great except we are still accounting for portions of Bailey’s, Pau’s, Nexeljkovic’s, Moreno’s, Coutinho’s, Dendoncker’s and even Buendia’s transfers from prior years.

I know, but a £40m surplus is still going to have an impact, it's just hard to know exactly how much.

[Somniloquism]

Well, we are! We are also being brainwashed into watching men’s football, buying Coca Cola, and thinking Apple products are cool.

Having read the replies to Henry Winter’s tweet on the subject, I can see my daft friend is not alone on this:

https://x.com/henrywinter/status/1928099150559691074?s=46&t=GdM6cpVxe5IloByNCRheWA

Looking at the one guys profile whose reply was "no thanks, I would rather miss out on a ST", I would rather you missed out on a an ST as well.

[Tuscans]

Kieron Maguire is estimating we have a deficit of approximately £20 million give or take to make up. Quoting we are in a better position then this time last year.

[tomd2103]

I think next season things will be much easier in terms of PSR.

We had a big loss in 22/23 and another big loss in 23/24 which by all accounts left us squeezing just inside the rules. With the first of those 2 dropping off, and this likely to be the last season of PSR we're in a much safer position.

I wouldn't be shocked if we announce a profit for 24/25 given the £100m in extra revenue and £40m surplus in player trading. That being the case we probably have a lot of leeway for those rules.

The one that is going to be tougher are the UEFA 70% wages rule which I suspect we're running very tight to, and if revenue does drop as a result of missing out on the Champions League that will be what makes us take some steps to reduce the wage bill.

However, because we have space to crystallise a loss or 2 I wouldn't be shocked if we try to negotiate Coutinho and Dendoncker going for free/cheap to save something like £10-12m a year.

Add to that sales of players we either don't want or can live without and I think we can probably get that under control pretty easily but we may well need to let people go so we can refresh the squad, which seems to be the same message that's coming from the club.

Yep, PSR rules changing just as we are getting on top of it.  From the article I posted a few pages ago, after deductibles we had a £96m loss in 22/23 and a £20m loss in 23/24.  That article said there is a maximum of £27m you can claim in deductibles, so estimated that we could only make a £17m loss this season. 

If you're right Paul and we've made a profit for 24/25 and claim the maximum deductibles, then we should be fine for this year.  As you say, the £96m would drop off next year, so if we did make a profit, we'd be in a very healthy PSR position.  Just in time for the rules to change!

[BC54 VFC]

I think next season things will be much easier in terms of PSR.

We had a big loss in 22/23 and another big loss in 23/24 which by all accounts left us squeezing just inside the rules. With the first of those 2 dropping off, and this likely to be the last season of PSR we're in a much safer position.

I wouldn't be shocked if we announce a profit for 24/25 given the £100m in extra revenue and £40m surplus in player trading. That being the case we probably have a lot of leeway for those rules.

The one that is going to be tougher are the UEFA 70% wages rule which I suspect we're running very tight to, and if revenue does drop as a result of missing out on the Champions League that will be what makes us take some steps to reduce the wage bill.

However, because we have space to crystallise a loss or 2 I wouldn't be shocked if we try to negotiate Coutinho and Dendoncker going for free/cheap to save something like £10-12m a year.

Add to that sales of players we either don't want or can live without and I think we can probably get that under control pretty easily but we may well need to let people go so we can refresh the squad, which seems to be the same message that's coming from the club.

Surely it's absolutely essential that we make a decent profit in the year to 06/25, because of the large losses made in the year ended 05/23, and the 13 month asccounting period to 06/24. As I understand it the position is averaged over the three most recent seasons, and the profit made principally because of the sale of JG in 08/21, in the year to 05/22, will now drop off the calculation.

[Percy McCarthy]

Kieron Maguire is estimating we have a deficit of approximately £20 million give or take to make up. Quoting we are in a better position then this time last year.

I heard that. I’m surprised he didn’t explain things better to Justin, who was having a breakdown over the wages to revenue turnover. He should get Dave Powell from Reach on, but I suppose Maguire gets more clicks.

[Dogtanian]

Kieron Maguire often fails to do basic research. Like everyone on social media, he’s there to get attention and clicks, not to win awards for accuracy or diligence.

[PeterWithe]

I’ve got a conspiracy theorist acquaintance who thinks we are being brainwashed into watching women’s football.

I've also got some conspiracy theorists as mates, they've not bought up this one yet but only because they wont have read about it yet. One of them is a flat earther. It's never been easier to find information easily but we seem to be getting more ignorant.

On the womens game, I've given up a lot of time over the last ten years coaching, administrating and enabling girls football, also taking the kids to pro games, getting them to coaching sessions at Villa, SHA, ferrying them around, yadda, yadda. To sum up I reckon I've done my bit to advance grass roots female football.

But I have close to zero interest in the WSL or pro game, I might irregularly look at Villa results but it holds little interest.

[kippaxvilla2]

So does anyone really know what is going on - is it £20m deficity - is it more?!  If it is £20m then surely selling the fringe players will suffice?!