How long will a transfer take?

[AllanW]

We’re all guilty of it, the urgency with which we want the squad to be built. It would be lovely if it happened tomorrow but that’s not the real world, is it? So for all those fans like me who want to know when that transfer will REALLY be happening here’s a quick guide.

Each transfer is a complex mix of elements;
-   player wishes, players agent type, club wishes, club transfer type, negotiation tactics and press tactics, fan involvement, cost (transfer fee), wage demand, financial situation of the club, terms of players current agreement, slot in the squad, manager profile, January or summer, recently promoted or relegated or stagnant, European football at the club or not etc.

In our circumstances we can simplify many of these elements to lead us far more closely to guess on what timescale things can happen. As far as the Villa go in this transfer window;

-   No European football available; this will mean a number of players and their agents will not consider a move to us. Full stop. Maxi Gomez? Nah. If you hear ‘reports’ about a young, upwardly-mobile player, especially one with a pushy/greedy agent, linked with us coming from a European club or from high in the Championship and who have international aspirations, it’s bullshit; they’ll never come in this window.

-   Terms of current player agreement; if there is more than 1 year left on the current contract the timescale will be long not short. The cost will be far higher as well even if all other factors are in our favour. This is because the current club can reasonably set out to frustrate the player and us for a long time as possible using the ultimate backstop of the season starting to force the price up; he’s their player not ours and they all work on the basis that they have the whip-hand in negotiations no matter what. And they’re right.

-   Bones of a deal already firmly in place; if a loan agreement specified a clear set of transfer terms the deal will be short as it just comes down to whether we want to activate that agreement or not. Either way this happens relatively quickly cf El Ghazi and Hause transfers. It may also be that we agree a set of transfer terms a year or so in advance in which case we define the timescale and how it will happen. That’s happening more and more these days as succession-planning for top players is a real thing.

-   Squad slot; no issue for us in this window as we have deliberately slashed our squad and need to build it back up again. However as a word of warning, don’t expect this scenario to be repeated; in future transfer windows our requirements will be few and more about tinkering rather than wholesale rebuilding. Enjoy this and the next window as it may not happen again for years.

-   Finances of the club; it’s a delight to be able to say ‘We have a sizeable transfer pot available’. Feels good, eh? It’s not unlimited and those who say ‘We can spend big, our owners are minted’ are wide of the mark, in my opinion. They won’t be shelling-out megabucks on players. YET. Their priority is infrastructure and commercial, the playing side big bucks will become available as those income streams become more real. This means the long, drawn-out mega transfer saga over a summer is not going to happen this year.

-   Wage demands/pay structure; we’re just coming up from the Championship and trying to get over the profligate/insane previous management so don’t expect ANYONE, no matter who they are or if they’re willing to come here, who wants to earn more than £50k a week to be a serious consideration. This is one of the main reasons why Smith, Pursestrings and Suso have given us a big indication that they are looking for young and willing not overpaid. The other reason is sell-on potential for the next 5 years. They may loosen that strategy after that time.

-   Transfer cost; in this window for this club we won’t be paying more than about £15m for ANY player and maybe only 1 of them. We need half a squad and will only risk between £80m and £95m in doing it, in my estimation. So don’t expect anything like £25m for x striker or even more than one £15m for anyone. Which means that transfers will take longer than ever; it’s a truism to say that money talks but what it normally says is ‘Give me that player NOW!’ and we won’t be spending like a sailor on shore-leave so things will take a long time.

-   Club buying tactics; we’ve already been told we are not going to flash it around, we’re looking for value and that very clearly says ‘It will take a lot longer time to do those deals.’ We’re trying to get value for money and that always takes way more time than splashing the cash. Always.

You can see which way this is going, can’t you? Yep, it’s easy really. Those deals which have been negotiated already can be done within a couple of weeks of the end of the season. We’re clear on our tactics, we know who we want and who we don’t so just do it to start the rebuild. Jota, Hause, El Ghazi. Nice start. I’m happy.

I’m sure we could also have sown-up some of the people mentioned as ‘linked’ to us, those who are on a free, those out of contract possibly, those who have been told they are surplus to requirements even if they have a current contract but the reason we haven’t is because Smith does not want them. I guess we could have signed Cahill, McEachran, Fer and any number of other mentions in the press already but we haven’t. These could be short-timescale deals for later when we know the gaps we need to fill, the only risk being they are picked-up in the meantime. But for now we’re going after someone else in those positions so we’ve avoided these quick transfers.

Anyone else has plainly NOT been pre-negotiated so won’t happen within at least 6 to 8 weeks. The staff will be busy as hell working the tactics for the targets we do have, it takes real work to make them happen of course, but they don’t happen that quickly. Even if they want to come here, even if they want to work with Smith, even if they want to be Premier League players and we think they can be, even if they ARE targets for the team, something about the circumstances means that’s not enough to write the deal.

Maybe their current employer wants them to stay and will try to convince them to do so; more time spent overcoming that set of arguments.

Maybe their current employer needs the money so will stall as much as possible to squeeze as much out of us as they can; more time spent waiting for them to reach the conclusion that no more is available.

Maybe the player is unsure of the role he will play; more time spent to butter-him-up.

Maybe the agent is a pain-in-the-arse and wants a bigger slice of the pie than anyone will give him; more time to find a way to take him out at the knees.

Maybe the player is holding out for a bigger wage; more time needs to be spent in getting both sides to a number they are comfortable with. And sometimes that’s not possible so we spend loads of time on a player we want but we eventually decide we can’t get him here under conditions we are happy with. It happens all the time. Unfortunately that process doesn’t happen in less than 6 weeks.

We may well get Mings in but what drives that timescale is that Bournemouth will be working hard to get a £15m bid into them so they can charge us that fee and doing that will not be so easy. It will take them time. And it will be hard to convince the Villa team that the bid is credible seeing as he’s said he wants to come here so it will take ages before Bournemouth accept that situation; we will have to wait.

We don’t even know if Maupay is a real target but if he is that one won’t be a quick deal either; they’ll want a big fee even though all other aspects of the deal seem to be in our favour.

So after this week we’ll have to be patient, boys and girls. We’ll buy or loan at least 6 more players before we start the league campaign in earnest but they may not be in place until a lot later on this summer. No matter what we want and I’m like you, I want them in early to rebuild squad cohesion in pre-season. We’ll need that.

So sit back, enjoy a few beers over the summer and don’t get too impatient; I suspect Smith and his team will do a decent job because they know all this and a whole lot more. They’re good.

[eamonn]

Allan, get some fresh air.

[Chico Hamilton III]

Don't clubs just bung the player's agent a few million quid and things start to happen?

[Jon Crofts]

Don't clubs just bung the player's agent a few million quid and things start to happen?

Harry? Is that you?

[Monty]

Just one question, what is "football"

[KevinGage]

You have to judge each case on its merits Allan.

[brackley]

Allan, are you stuck in a lift?

[Drummond]

Are you writing a book? I think there's someone on here who may have published one or two.

[chrisw1]

Looking forward to the next guide Allan.  Perhaps one about selecting the best pastry based food options on matchday and relevant condiments?

[cdbearsfan]

I think I'll wait for the paperback version.

[Drummond]

Are you the one person who's actually read the instructions for the Football Manager and Football Chairman games?

[Bad English]

Anyone quoting the whole lot hereby agrees they are a c***.

What a great post!

[richtheholtender]

Great post Allan

[TelfordVilla]

perfectly correct on all points Allan. It will be a long wait for Mings and Maupay and we must hold our nerves. It wont be easy. pass me another beer.......

[Clampy]

Has Paul_e changed his user name?