The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[PeterWithesShin]

I was just having a look back to see if anyone had ever failed to go up on 90 and this season is a bit of a freak, teams have won the league with less points than we have.

I went back as far as 2000. Since then no side has hit 90 and not finished top 2. And even if the target was 87 it's not a stupid one as only twice has a side reached 87 and not gone up automatically going back to 2000. Bolton with 87 and Brighton with 89.

[sickbeggar]

Well i make the average for 2nd over 10 seasons as 86.9 so 87 points. To be honest though that's warped by a couple of really low 2nd placed points totals (you can guess who was in charge for one of them)

[Risso]

I'm sure he had an idea of the number of points that we'd need to go up automatically, but whatever it was, I'm fairly certain that we were nearly always behind the curve on it, so it's not like he'd have been saying "It's alright lads, don't worry about beating QPR or Bolton, we're on track for enough points as it is!"

The fact that we've been 3rd or 4th in the table probably indicated to Bruce that the target had to be whatever Cardiff or Fulham achieved, +1.

[eamonn]

If the top four have won an aggregated bunch of points a lot more than the average does that mean elsewhere in the table teams are on lower points than average for their position? I imagine the gap between us and Boro in fifth for example isn't common?

[SirSteveUK]

Talking of points differences - found this posted elsewhere:

Evo-stik Southern League (24 teams - like the Championship)
Final table

1.   Hereford   46   36   5   5   111:33   113   
2.   Kings Lynn 46   30   10   6   99:39   100   
3.   Slough   46   30   9   7   111:49   99   
4.   Kettering   46   30   7   9   122:56   97   
5.   Weymouth 46   30   7   9   103:48   97

and to answer your point about ultra low points totals elsewhere in the table:

20. Farnborough    46 15-6-25  82:120 51 pts
21. Kings Langley  46  8-14-24 63:98   38 pts
22. St. Ives Town  46  8-9-29   54:105  33 pts
23. Gosport Bor.    46  5-5-36   41:142 20 pts
24. Dunstable T.    46  4-5-37   27:137 17 pts

Apparently Dunstable did better than expected - as no employee of the club has been paid all season

[IFWaters]

Oh for fucks sake.
I started the thread, read my posts.
In 25 years of the 24 team league, 2 points a game, aka 92 points, will Always have got you promoted. Its as close to a statistical guarantee as you can get.

If I was Tony, I would be saying to Bruce, that's your target.

He's missed it by at least 6 points.

[old man villa fan]

Like the PL, the Championship is changing and the teams at the top are starting to stretch the points total and that is due to the money in the game now. Money doesn't always buy success but it helps. I think looking back too far gives a false impression in a similar way to believing there is a formula to winning promotion.  You need to change with the times to be successful, something we have failed to do over the years.

[Marlon From Bearwood]

Like the PL, the Championship is changing and the teams at the top are starting to stretch the points total and that is due to the money in the game now. Money doesn't always buy success but it helps. I think looking back too far gives a false impression in a similar way to believing there is a formula to winning promotion.  You need to change with the times to be successful, something we have failed to do over the years.

Good point. It’s like the England cricket team still thinking that 300 was a great score in an ODI whilst other teams were targeting 400. Luckily they’ve cottoned on now.

Times change. The bar has been raised.

[PeterWithesShin]

I'm not sure that's true. Cardiff and Fulham haven't spent a fortune, the last 2 years it will be 1, maybe 2 clubs (if us or Boro win the play-offs) that were promoted with the benefit of parachute payments. The only difference this season to what's happened before is that a side could reach 90 points and not go up automatically. Everything else has happened before points wise.

[andrew08]

Pre season preparation was the key to this season for me. We needed more competitive games. We were too far behind after 5 games.

[oldhill_avfc]

Am I right in thinking its the top two that get promoted automatically and there's some sort of mini cup for the third place regardless of how many points you've got - a bit like the last few years?

[Matt Collins]

Am I right in thinking its the top two that get promoted automatically and there's some sort of mini cup for the third place regardless of how many points you've got - a bit like the last few years?

Yes

In other news, keepers can no longer pick up back passes 

[SoccerHQ]

Pre season preparation was the key to this season for me. We needed more competitive games. We were too far behind after 5 games.

Yes we weren't ready.

Starting 11 for the Hull game on the opening day makes my eyes bleed....it was a midfield of Elmohamady-Whelan-Lansbury-Bacuna!

Gabby upfront aswell.

[London Villan]

That’s not the greatest of midfields...

[in exile]

Maybe not but it's the best game Elmohamady has had for us so far