The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[DB]

i cant make up my mind if it will be "thats the play offs for yer" or " am bitterly dissapointed to lose a Final"

How about 'Yeah! We're going up! Wahey!'

Trying to dampen down expectations, I just dont trust the bloke to make the right decisions at the right time.

Really? If there is one manager out of the play-off contenders I would think would get it right is Bruce.

[paul_e]

i cant make up my mind if it will be "thats the play offs for yer" or " am bitterly dissapointed to lose a Final"

How about 'Yeah! We're going up! Wahey!'

Trying to dampen down expectations, I just dont trust the bloke to make the right decisions at the right time.

Really? If there is one manager out of the play-off contenders I would think would get it right is Bruce.

On paper you're right, but based purely on his time as Villa manager I don't trust him in games where the pressure is really on, he draws into his shell and we look slow and disinterested.  It's happened a few times now.  On the basis of how we've played I won't be confident if we go behind at any point and I won't be confident in the final if we're not leading by halftime.  I'll have hope and I'll desperately want to have my concerns well and truly put to rest but I just can't expect it.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

i cant make up my mind if it will be "thats the play offs for yer" or " am bitterly dissapointed to lose a Final"

How about 'Yeah! We're going up! Wahey!'

Trying to dampen down expectations, I just dont trust the bloke to make the right decisions at the right time.

Really? If there is one manager out of the play-off contenders I would think would get it right is Bruce.

Based on his record at previous clubs, most certainly. Based on the last 18 or so months at Villa Park, probably not.

[cannock villa]

On paper you're right, but based purely on his time as Villa manager I don't trust him in games where the pressure is really on, he draws into his shell and we look slow and disinterested.  It's happened a few times now.  On the basis of how we've played I won't be confident if we go behind at any point and I won't be confident in the final if we're not leading by halftime.  I'll have hope and I'll desperately want to have my concerns well and truly put to rest but I just can't expect it.
[/quote]

And yet under Bruce we have got the most points in a season since 3 points were introduced, even beating Sir Grahams total when he got us promoted. First time 7 league wins on a trot since 1993 and the most homes wins in a season since the 80's. After the last 4 seasons of record breaking lows I find it laughable that many still don't accept him as good enough to be our manager.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Sir Graham got us promoted without the most expensive assembled squad in the history of the Championship.

I am more confident of the team raising their game on the big occasions, at least at Villa Park, you just have to look at the Rags and Wolves games for evidence. Away from home is another matter. Right now it's 6 of one and half a dozen of the other. Frankly, we don't know which Villa team will turn up and that's because under Bruce we've been massively inconsistent, something I don't find very 'laughable'.

[paul_e]

And yet under Bruce we have got the most points in a season since 3 points were introduced, even beating Sir Grahams total when he got us promoted. First time 7 league wins on a trot since 1993 and the most homes wins in a season since the 80's. After the last 4 seasons of record breaking lows I find it laughable that many still don't accept him as good enough to be our manager.

It's only the 2nd time we'll have played 46 league games in that time and the record was broken with a win in the 43rd game (42 a season being the most we'd played before last year). It's also only the second season in nearly 30 years outside the top flight, reeling off stats about numbers of wins but ignoring that fact is just odd.  We're Aston Villa, we're one of the biggest clubs in the country and any season where we're not in the top-flight we are, pretty much, automatically the biggest club in the league we're in, we should be breaking records in this league, this is what I mean when, in the past, I've talked about how we should be playing like a team that knows our stay is temporarily.  It's not arrogance, it's knowing that clubs like Brentford, Barnesley, Cardiff, etc are at such a ridiculous disadvantage to us that if we play like the club we are then they have very little chance of competing with us.

Back to Bruce, his only job was promotion and he might still do it, but I'm personally not totally confident because when we got ourselves right in the mix for an automatic spot a month or 2 back we imploded despite the fact that we had a promotion expert in charge. Now we're supposed to forget that and trust our newly titled playoff expert to get us through, I hope he does but I don't trust him not to fuck it up again.

[chrisw1]

Sir Graham got us promoted without the most expensive assembled squad in the history of the Championship.

I know people love that stat, but it needs to be looked at in the context of where we started.

Most successful squads are built over a period of time so it follows that with a core of a team in place 2 or 3 signing can make a huge difference - as was the case with Wolves.  In our case the relegated squad was largely dysfunctional and needed complete rebuilding.  How many of that team have made a regular contribution over the last two seasons?  Hutton and Grealish ...?

So the most expensive squad ever assembled in the Championship was infact a complete rebuild as opposed adding a bit of quality here and there which is what most teams do.

I haven't done any maths on transfers but presume the likes of McCormack is included in these stats who Bruce didn't buy and has made no contribution?  Add to that Kodjia has been injured pretty much all season all season so Bruce has achieved what he has without those two.  Should that be taken into account in the stats?

Do the stats take account of money brought in, or is that ignored?

I still think Bruce should have done better than he has, but the most expensive squad ever assembled in the Championship label is really just something to beat him up with by people who refuse to look at the wider picture. 

[Tony Erdington]

Just 6 games to go win them all, and were in the promised land, Then over to you Doctor.

Bruce might walk at the end of the season any way

[paul_e]

That's true for all stats in truth Chris, you don't use stats on a discussion forum that don't reinforce the point that you're making.

However how many other managers in this league would have been able to send McCormack out on loan 4 months after he arrived and spend the same amount again on Hogan?  How many would've been given the freedom with the wage bill to bring in Terry and snodgrass in the summer and then Grabban because their £12m signing (to replace another £12m signing) wasn't good enough?  Don't get caught up on details of the claim, just understand that what it really means is that he's had a huge amount of backing to do whatever he wanted to with this squad, very few managers get that so it's only fair to expect him to meet his targets.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Bruce might walk at the end of the season any way

I can see that. On a personal level, he's had a terrible year and may want to take a much deserved break.

[chrisw1]

I don’t think he will.  He knows it’s the biggest job he’ll ever get and I’m sure in his own mind he will be convinced he is doing a decent job.  Indeed I suspect outside of internet fan forums most people will share that view.

[eamonn]

Xia expects results. Non-promotion is unlikely to cut it.

[MONCABA]

Play-offs it is then......

[SoccerHQ]

Play-offs it is then......

It's been that way since the night of the QPR game.

Don't know really whether to admire or pity the people who keep bumping this thread after every 3 points in the hope Cardiff and Fulham would totally collapse in the run in but it was always a long shot and so now we're just playing out the games as we know we're going to be fourth.

[tomd2103]

Play-offs it is then......

Depends on tomorrow really.  Win and we could still be in the picture until Tuesday.