The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[SoccerHQ]

Pretty much that PWS.

I'd back us to win the two legged semi.

How we perform at Wembley though is anyone's guess if we get through.

[ChicagoLion]

Agree PWS, the fear I have is that Bruce will fuck up any chance we have.
That squad should not fear anybody in this league let alone the play offs.

[PaulWinch again]

We're not going to have a chance of promotion if our form doesn't improve a lot.

[PeterWithesShin]

I said it before but when it came to the serious promotion stuff we've made our excuses and left. We're the only one of the 4 to bottle it so far.

[Brassneck]

It's no longer about the manager.

It's about how the players perform.

No point worrying about momentum as we have none. Better to continually rotate the side between now and the play offs.

There's a long way to go before we can talk about "bottling it"

[PeterWithesShin]

Well we've bottled automatic promotion, 14 points from the last 10 games shows that. We now have to show that we won't bottle the play-offs.

[villa `cross the mersey]

Losing 10 games has killed us - in order to get a play off spot I think 5 points will be enough - as long as we draw against Millwall  - or 7 points from 5 games to guarantee a play off spot - but where are those points coming from?
3 home games - draw with Cardiff, Draw with Derby , Draw with Leeds
2 away games - draw with Ipswich , lose to Millwall
Gives us 4 points - not enough??

[richtheholtender]

We should have been the Man Utd of the championship when in fact we’ve turned out to be the arsenal of the championship.

[Brassneck]

Well we've bottled automatic promotion, 14 points from the last 10 games shows that. We now have to show that we won't bottle the play-offs.

No - We've been inconsistent all season.

We've never really been in serious contention for autos, except possibly after the Wolves game.

VCM says that losing 10 has killed us. That is not the case. Newcastle lost 10 last season and still won the league. It is the inability to turn draws into wins that has killed us.

None of this matters - We need to look ahead and it is down to the players now - I have no confidence in the manager.

[Meanwood Villa]

Well we've bottled automatic promotion, 14 points from the last 10 games shows that. We now have to show that we won't bottle the play-offs.

No - We've been inconsistent all season.

We've never really been in serious contention for autos, except possibly after the Wolves game.

VCM says that losing 10 has killed us. That is not the case. Newcastle lost 10 last season and still won the league. It is the inability to turn draws into wins that has killed us.

None of this matters - We need to look ahead and it is down to the players now - I have no confidence in the manager.

We went second after the Blues game. To me that's being in serious contention.

[PeterWithesShin]

As MW says, we went second after that result. 7 points ahead of Fulham, 4 ahead of Cardiff (who had a game in hand). 10 games later we're 4th, 5 points behind Fulham and 7 behind Cardiff who still have a game in hand. While both sides have in fairness had great runs, our run since going second is a ppg that sees sides finish 10th-12th never mind 2nd.

[SoccerHQ]

We've bottled it since the Wolves game no question.

Manager AND players to blame for that.

SB for not rotating for the QPR game and some of the senior players not being honest with him and admitted they'd struggle to get their intensity levels up again.

Things have just snowballed from there.

[manic-road]

We won't win the play offs. We look slow, sluggish, tired and lacking creativity and ideas. We have no plan B when we go a goal down or we're chasing a game.

No plan B? I have seen Bruce change the formation a few times, like putting on more forwards and taking off the midfielders that would supply the front men.

[Brassneck]

As MW says, we went second after that result. 7 points ahead of Fulham, 4 ahead of Cardiff (who had a game in hand). 10 games later we're 4th, 5 points behind Fulham and 7 behind Cardiff who still have a game in hand. While both sides have in fairness had great runs, our run since going second is a ppg that sees sides finish 10th-12th never mind 2nd.

It's not down to bottling it though. As others have alluded to, we specialise in little fits and bursts. We've been inconsistent all season, plodding along, waiting for the daffodils to  shoot up.

You could argue that Derby had a chance at auto as they also went 2nd around the same time.

We've been poor. We set out to sneak 1-0s against sides around us and it always backfires. (Wolves, Cardiff, Derby, Fulham) We go a goal down and there's no plan B (if there was ever a plan A)

The reason we are in this mess is not down to bottling it - It is down to the manager and his obsession with "waiting for the daffodils to shoot up"

We need to start going into these games with scant regard to the opposition. That's what Wolves do and that's what Fulham do. Being negative and "relying on a bit of quality" to sneak us a 1-0 doesn't work. Things have moved on from that. So to get back to my original point, we need to look at the players and how they will cope with the play offs and probable penalties at some point.

[Toronto Villa]

We won't win the play offs. We look slow, sluggish, tired and lacking creativity and ideas. We have no plan B when we go a goal down or we're chasing a game.

No plan B? I have seen Bruce change the formation a few times, like putting on more forwards and taking off the midfielders that would supply the front men.

I’m just waiting for him to try a 0-4-6 formation.