The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Richard E]

Christ....

I think we need his intervention...

[Ads]

No, I agree with Brassneck.

If your assumption is that Cardiff will just keep on winning regardless or maybe only lose the one game, then put bid for automatic has been over for some time.

If you think that you're wrong. And you don't need to believe in the powers of motivation from awful, fucking awful, shite like Braveheart to think so.

[PeterWithesShin]

If over the last 9 games Cardiff have a record of W5 D1 L3 then we'd need to win 8 to definitely finish above them. A record of W7 D2 may be enough for us to finish above them on GD.

[Risso]

No, I agree with Brassneck.

If your assumption is that Cardiff will just keep on winning regardless or maybe only lose the one game, then put bid for automatic has been over for some time.

If you think that you're wrong. And you don't need to believe in the powers of motivation from awful, fucking awful, shite like Braveheart to think so.

As I said before, they can afford to lose more than that, and that assumes we win just about all of ours including beating them.

[Ads]

Risso, its been about 12 hours since you mentioned Braveheart and I'm yet to get over it. Hurt me right in the history pedantic feels you did.

[Brassneck]

Just breaking it down into the 4 games we play before Cardiff and the 4 games we play afterwards (we have to beat Cardiff otherwise I think 99% of us will agree that it's curtains.

I believe that out of Derby & Sheffield United away and Wolves & Burton at home, Cardiff will drop points in at least 2 of those games.

We need 10 points from Bolton, Hull, Norwich away and Reading at home.

By the time we play them, we could be within touching distance of them if we can achieve 10 points.

The 4 games afterwards, Cardiff have Norwich & Hull away and Forest & Reading at home. The pressure could well and truly be on them by then. Likewise with us, Leeds & Derby at home, Millwall & Ipswich away. If we are level with Cardiff or a point either way after we play them, I'd back us to get more points in the pressure cooker situation that the last 4 games would bring.

[Risso]

Risso, its been about 12 hours since you mentioned Braveheart and I'm yet to get over it. Hurt me right in the history pedantic feels you did.

Sorry, that was uncalled for.  Would a comparison to Churchill's "fight them on the beaches" speech have been more like it?

[richtheholtender]

Just breaking it down into the 4 games we play before Cardiff and the 4 games we play afterwards (we have to beat Cardiff otherwise I think 99% of us will agree that it's curtains.

I believe that out of Derby & Sheffield United away and Wolves & Burton at home, Cardiff will drop points in at least 2 of those games.

We need 10 points from Bolton, Hull, Norwich away and Reading at home.

By the time we play them, we could be within touching distance of them if we can achieve 10 points.

The 4 games afterwards, Cardiff have Norwich & Hull away and Forest & Reading at home. The pressure could well and truly be on them by then. Likewise with us, Leeds & Derby at home, Millwall & Ipswich away. If we are level with Cardiff or a point either way after we play them, I'd back us to get more points in the pressure cooker situation that the last 4 games would bring.

Why do you think that when Cardiff have already proven they handle pressure better than we do?

[Brassneck]

Just breaking it down into the 4 games we play before Cardiff and the 4 games we play afterwards (we have to beat Cardiff otherwise I think 99% of us will agree that it's curtains.

I believe that out of Derby & Sheffield United away and Wolves & Burton at home, Cardiff will drop points in at least 2 of those games.

We need 10 points from Bolton, Hull, Norwich away and Reading at home.

By the time we play them, we could be within touching distance of them if we can achieve 10 points.

The 4 games afterwards, Cardiff have Norwich & Hull away and Forest & Reading at home. The pressure could well and truly be on them by then. Likewise with us, Leeds & Derby at home, Millwall & Ipswich away. If we are level with Cardiff or a point either way after we play them, I'd back us to get more points in the pressure cooker situation that the last 4 games would bring.

Why do you think that when Cardiff have already proven they handle pressure better than we do?

Because there has been no pressure yet. You get it down to the last 4 games, with us both still battling and I think that our players will handle it better. They are older and many have experienced it before.

The real pressure will only start when the finishing line is in sight, not with 9 or 10 games to go.

[sickbeggar]

winning 4 or 5 games in a row isn't really much of a big thing in this league or the opposite so i would be very surprised if cardiff continue in that vein till the end of season. you look at the top 6 and in the last 5 games you've got point totals ranging from 4 out of 15 to 15 out of 15. If we've learnt anything this season it's that anyone can beat anyone in this league and normally do.

[Brassneck]

AV last 4 games under Graham Taylor, fighting for the league title:
Lost, won, drawn, drawn.
Finished runners up to Liverpool who had experienced the run in before.

AV last 4 games under BFR, fighting for the league title:
Won, lost, lost, lost.
Finished runners up to Man U who had experienced the run in before.

AV last 5 games under Ron Saunders, fighting for the league title:
Lost, won, drawn, won, lost.
Won the league ahead of Ipswich whose final 5 results were:
Lost, lost, won, lost, lost.
Neither team had previous experience of challenging for the title.

AV last 5 games promotion under Graham Taylor:
Lost, drew, won, won, drew.
Promoted and all rivals dropped similar amounts of points.

Now I'm not saying that this happens all the time but speaking as a Villa fan who is old enough to remember all of those run ins, form and football goes out of the window in those final few games. The pressure is like nothing you have experienced for the bulk of the season. look at the Man Us, the Liverpools and the Chelseas when they won titles - They always had it in them to finish strongly.

Let's not give it up yet. let's see if we can be in with a shout after the Cardiff game. If we aren't then we only have ourselves to blame for the performances at the start of the season and in December.

[PeterWithesShin]

The pressure is more when it's close, not when you have a big lead. There's been more pressure on Cardiff the last few games than there will be the next few imo. That's not to say they won't implode, and I hope they do obv, but by the last 4 or 5 games they could be all but up.

I'm hoping for a repeat of 74/75. last 8 league games, won, won, won, won, won, won, won, won and automatic promotion.

[Ads]

Risso, its been about 12 hours since you mentioned Braveheart and I'm yet to get over it. Hurt me right in the history pedantic feels you did.

Sorry, that was uncalled for.  Would a comparison to Churchill's "fight them on the beaches" speech have been more like it?

Much more like it. Set upper lip, to stiff.

[Brassneck]

The pressure is more when it's close, not when you have a big lead. There's been more pressure on Cardiff the last few games than there will be the next few imo. That's not to say they won't implode, and I hope they do obv, but by the last 4 or 5 games they could be all but up.

I'm hoping for a repeat of 74/75. last 8 league games, won, won, won, won, won, won, won, won and automatic promotion.

Let's see how they get on, on Sunday. If they win that, they'll have a fantastic chance of securing second. Lose with us winning and the cushion disappears again.

I believe that our players have it in them to gain similar momentum to that of 74-75.

[Richard E]

Knowing us, we'll be in spitting distance of Cardiff when we play them, and then lose that match.