The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Tony Erdington]

Cardiff won’t have to win all 9. It’s great being all Braveheart about things, but it’s over, forget it. There was very little margin for error with a four point gap, and tonight we blew it.

There's been plenty of times this season when people have said it's all over after bad results, only for things to turn round pretty quickly.

Last night was disastrous, but it is far from all over.  Do you think Fulham think it's all over?  There will be plenty of twists and turns before this season is out.

put another way Warnock v Bruce, ones pragmatic the other is a chancer. im pretty much in the Wembley way camp. playing old legs 72 hours after a great but exhausting game, was asking for trouble.

[villa `cross the mersey]

Am I safe in saying that whatever happens it's an improvement on last season or shall I get me coat??

I actually thought the same.

I don't think we will  go down now !

In all seriousness though I think some people have taken the points for granted in some of the games - Preston, QPR and Fulham spring to mind.
Did anyone foresee last nights` shambles though?

[Bad English]

I would back this team to beat anyone in the division at home in a must win game. The poorest results have come against lesser sides when the atmosphere has been near silent.

The only problem with what you say here is that QPR was a 'must-win' game because three points were available, our rivals are not losing like us, we didn't win and are now unlikely to be taking an automatic promotion spot. :-/

[David_Nab]

I'm gona take one for the team ..im going to bet on Cardiff to win every time they play , with my betting record I'm confident I can jinx them ....

[sickbeggar]

End of the day we have to win our next two games. Do that and at worse we're 7 points off Cardiff coming into April. Then Cardiff have us, sheffield United away, and Wolves at home. I'm willing to bet there's points dropped in those 3 games and then its 4 games to go with us possibly 3 points behind. Anything can happen. If they come through that period still 7 points ahead then fair play they deserve to go up.

[chrisw1]

End of the day we have to win our next two games. Do that and at worse we're 7 points off Cardiff coming into April. Then Cardiff have us, sheffield United away, and Wolves at home. I'm willing to bet there's points dropped in those 3 games and then its 4 games to go with us possibly 3 points behind. Anything can happen. If they come through that period still 7 points ahead then fair play they deserve to go up.

Exactly.  We need to go on a long winning run then just see what happens.

[The Edge]

We have developed into a team that has proven that we do well in the big games with big crowds- Small Heath then Wolves- so if we do end up in the play offs it augers well for us. Every cloud as they say!

[mr underhill]

loving that optimism - there was no bigger incentive than yesterday to win ( PL auto promotion) and we dicked ourselves again.

[Legion]

[Clampy]

loving that optimism - there was no bigger incentive than yesterday to win ( PL auto promotion) and we dicked ourselves again.

There was a big incentive to win on Saturday as well and we didn't 'dick ourselves again' then. We lost last night, we wasn't good enough. It happens and it'll happen again. Simple as that really.

[Brassneck]

I don't think that anybody expected us to win every one of our remaining 10 games prior to last night. Most accepted that we would lose one between Saturday and the end of the season. Well we've now lost that game so need to go 9 unbeaten.

I think that it was Cardiff winning as much as us losing that has got most people worrying. Cardiff's loss/losses are yet to come. There is no reason why we can't see our last 9 games out unbeaten. We have a 1 point advantage over Fulham and Cardiff to play at Villa Park. It's still possible to get the 7 wins that most people said that we needed. 7 wins and 2 draws puts us on 92 points. If we can do that, it's still possible to reach 2nd. Even 6 wins and 3 draws would put us on 90 points.

There is no more room for slip ups. Forget about the other teams, we can't influence what they do. We have 3 away games out of the next 4. 10 points from those games will see us needing the same from 3 home games out of 4 going into Millwall final game. Cardiff have us, Sheffield United and Derby away, as well as Wolves at home. All last night has meant is that we have 9 games instead of 10 in which to reach our points target.

[Risso]

I don't think that anybody expected us to win every one of our remaining 10 games prior to last night. Most accepted that we would lose one between Saturday and the end of the season. Well we've now lost that game so need to go 9 unbeaten.

I think that it was Cardiff winning as much as us losing that has got most people worrying. Cardiff's loss/losses are yet to come. There is no reason why we can't see our last 9 games out unbeaten. We have a 1 point advantage over Fulham and Cardiff to play at Villa Park. It's still possible to get the 7 wins that most people said that we needed. 7 wins and 2 draws puts us on 92 points. If we can do that, it's still possible to reach 2nd. Even 6 wins and 3 draws would put us on 90 points.

There is no more room for slip ups. Forget about the other teams, we can't influence what they do. We have 3 away games out of the next 4. 10 points from those games will see us needing the same from 3 home games out of 4 going into Millwall final game. Cardiff have us, Sheffield United and Derby away, as well as Wolves at home. All last night has meant is that we have 9 games instead of 10 in which to reach our points target.

I don't get this thing about people saying we needed another 7 wins or 90 points.  Just because people say it, doesn't make it in any way true.  If we do finish on 90, Cardiff could lose to us and Wolves, and still lose two other matches if they won the other 5.  We have no room for errors at all, and Cardiff do.

[sickbeggar]

I don't think i have a reputation for being optimistic at all especially where Bruce is concerned, so i don't think it's talking miracles to expect Cardiff to drop points playing us, sheffield u and Wolves. As i said 7 points behind at the start of april, beat them obviously, that's 4 points behind, if they draw against sheffield United or Wolves, then that's 3 points maximum. With 4 games to go after that, then it's game on IMO. If we can't beat cardiff then we don't deserve to go up - likewise if we drop points in the next 2 games.

[Brassneck]

I don't think that anybody expected us to win every one of our remaining 10 games prior to last night. Most accepted that we would lose one between Saturday and the end of the season. Well we've now lost that game so need to go 9 unbeaten.

I think that it was Cardiff winning as much as us losing that has got most people worrying. Cardiff's loss/losses are yet to come. There is no reason why we can't see our last 9 games out unbeaten. We have a 1 point advantage over Fulham and Cardiff to play at Villa Park. It's still possible to get the 7 wins that most people said that we needed. 7 wins and 2 draws puts us on 92 points. If we can do that, it's still possible to reach 2nd. Even 6 wins and 3 draws would put us on 90 points.

There is no more room for slip ups. Forget about the other teams, we can't influence what they do. We have 3 away games out of the next 4. 10 points from those games will see us needing the same from 3 home games out of 4 going into Millwall final game. Cardiff have us, Sheffield United and Derby away, as well as Wolves at home. All last night has meant is that we have 9 games instead of 10 in which to reach our points target.

I don't get this thing about people saying we needed another 7 wins or 90 points.  Just because people say it, doesn't make it in any way true.  If we do finish on 90, Cardiff could lose to us and Wolves, and still lose two other matches if they won the other 5.  We have no room for errors at all, and Cardiff do.

But you think we're out of it because we dropped 3 points.

We can get the gap back down to 4 on Saturday. Cardiff then have Derby & Sheffield United away as well as Wolves and Burton at home before they play us. It is not beyond the realms of fantasy to think that we may have pulled back that gap further before we meet, meaning a win would see us go above them.

I don't want to be in this position and would never have envisaged Cardiff going on a 7 game winning streak but we are where we are. My attitude is to keep on battling and hold the inquest at the end of the season IF we don't reach our goal.

We needed 7 wins before last night - Nothing has changed other than we have one less game in which to do it. I agree we have no room for errors but this is where we are with it. Stop worrying about other teams, concentrate on what we can do and if we make further errors then we don't deserve to get auto.

[Risso]

Christ....