The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Nunkin1965]

Nothing is over with 27 points to play for.

You don't achieve anything in life by being a quitter. Anything you've achieved in life, you've worked at it and believed in the work you put into it. It's why they're achievements.

All we can do is put one on Bolton and see if Derby can close the gap to 5/4 points. Then pressure builds and momentum breaks.

And if Cardiff win all 9 games, then you have to say well done and look to the Play Offs.

Agreed. Well said.

Seconded

Nice one. My thoughts entirely. I'll say we're fucked when we mathematically are.

[Risso]

Cardiff won’t have to win all 9. It’s great being all Braveheart about things, but it’s over, forget it. There was very little margin for error with a four point gap, and tonight we blew it.

[Smirker]

Cardiff won’t have to win all 9. It’s great being all Braveheart about things, but it’s over, forget it. There was very little margin for error with a four point gap, and tonight we blew it.

Could be four points again after the next round of games. 

[PeterWithesShin]

Could also be 10. We're hoping a side that hasn't won for 7 games will beat a side that has won 7 on the spin. Of course it could happen, anything could, but realistically we need Cardiff to do a Devon Loch and the gits show no signs of doing it.

[Smirker]

Could also be 10. We're hoping a side that hasn't won for 7 games will beat a side that has won 7 on the spin. Of course it could happen, anything could, but realistically we need Cardiff to do a Devon Loch and the gits show no signs of doing it.

If it does become a ten point gap even I will stop believing, I think.

[Nunkin1965]

Am I safe in saying that whatever happens it's an improvement on last season or shall I get me coat??

[DeKuip]

Nine games ago we were five points behind Derby and level with Bristol City. Cardiff were 12 behind Wolves.
Fulham and Cardiff are on incredible runs at the moment and we’re all talking as if those runs will keep going as they are. Football, this division and the law of averages suggest they won’t.
There are so many twists and turns ahead, just enjoy the fun of it - much more interesting than being a mid-table Premier League side out of both cups like we have been so often at this time of year.
Come on Villa!

[Smirker]

Am I safe in saying that whatever happens it's an improvement on last season or shall I get me coat??

I actually thought the same.

[PeterWithesShin]

Problem is there are now only 9 games left. We're hoping that a side that has lost 7 out of 37 is going to lose at least 4 out of 9. I'm still hoping we finish top 2, I just think that it's very unlikely.

[Louzie0]

Nothing is over with 27 points to play for.

You don't achieve anything in life by being a quitter. Anything you've achieved in life, you've worked at it and believed in the work you put into it. It's why they're achievements.

All we can do is put one on Bolton and see if Derby can close the gap to 5/4 points. Then pressure builds and momentum breaks.

And if Cardiff win all 9 games, then you have to say well done and look to the Play Offs.

Agreed. Well said.

Seconded

Nice one. My thoughts entirely. I'll say we're fucked when we mathematically are.

Realism v unicorns. 
I’m with Nunkin and the unicorns.

[sickbeggar]

Thing is, we've got 3 away games this month. All against teams struggling at the bottom but all who will be fighting for their lives. As i said on a earlier post, we have to be in striking difference by the end of the month to take advantage of cardiff's perceived hard run of games in April. Now if you're a team in 3rd, you'd expect to pick up 7 points minimum from those games. Add in the qpr game and wolves and you'd hope for 11 points overall minimum or 74 points at the end of March (maybe 71 if the qpr game hasn't been played). Obviously that target relies on Cardiff playing like a team in 2nd place. 71 or 74 points at that stage would be on target and not exactly incredible form so if we're under the 73 point barrier (5 games played) or 70 point barrier (4 games played) by then i'd say we've blown it and don't deserve to go up

Ignoring the appalling result tonight, we're still on target for 12 points in March  or 75 points which is what i would have hoped for to allow us a go at Cardiff in April. Any dropped points now though in the next two games and it's looking increasingly like its slipping away from us.

[OzVilla]

4 things must happen for us to have a chance of finishing in an automatic spot;

1st we must win a minimum of 7 from 9,

2nd one of those 7 must be the home game against Cardiff,

3rd we probably need Wolves to win their game against Cardiff also,

4th We need to match Fulhams points haul with both having 9 games left.

If all these happen then I think we'll still go up automatically. If not then we'll be looking at the play offs (were oddly i'd actually fancy us and think that's the most exciting way to get promoted as a supporter anyway).

[Seb_AVFC]

If not then we'll be looking at the play offs (were oddly i'd actually fancy us and think that's the most exciting way to get promoted as a supporter anyway).

It's also the most cruel way to miss out on promotion.

[IFWaters]

Currently 7th are Sheffield Utd, who are in course for 74 points. 2 more wins will get us past that. Then I would want us to avoid Fulham in the playoff semi finals.

[Richard E]

I was hoping that having slept on it I would have woken up feeling more positive than I was last night but nope, we have blown it for automatic promotion.