The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[QuintonVilla]

Has to be 40,000+ on Saturday. Forget Small Heath, this is our biggest home game of the season so far. Anyone who bought a ticket for that game has to be there Saturday and VP has to be rocking from the off.

[SoccerHQ]

Just checked, Fulham can get maximum of 95 points in the run in. Don't look like losing atm but we need them to be held to a couple of draws.

Wolves still have 12 games left. 6 wins would get them to 91 points. As funny as it would be I really can't see them messing it up.

Cardiff's fixtures in next 6 weeks:

Brentford away
Derby away
Sheffield United away
Wolves home
Us away
Norwich away

Look at some of those away games. Keep calm, Cardiff will be dropping points. Them going to Hull right at the end of the season won't be easy for them either.

[footyskillz]

Fulham set of fixtures look reasonably good for them and from the 3 the best perhaps.
However as mentioned they play Preston arguably their hardest match in run in next away from home and think they may at least not get 3 points.

However the rest of their matches include 2 home matches  against relegation teams reading, and Sunderland.

Also play Birmingham last  and rest of matches after preston are  against middling teams. With little to play for. Makes their current run even more impressive as the games now are pretty straightforward.
However I think they may do similar to last season and fail in play offs.
Obviously I would always back villa anyways but I would back Villa or Middlesborough in play offs to go up.  However we all know keep winning matches is key whoever we play and the matches some tougher and potentially draws which could harm our promoting bid.
The great thing is Bruce and experience in this situation.


It's actually really necessary to beat wolves whatever Preston Fulham do as well as what wolves do tomorrow (expecting them to win).

Looking again at villa fixture the last thing wanted is Millwall away last game of season decider.

I heard someone mention villa need to take 6 wins and 2 draws in final matches.

Again  I check here what is the amount points to look at for this season if looking at Cardiff and Fulham and wolves matches for the automatic places.

No twists and turns tonight all straight forward and Cardiff have to say will win again Saturday. I see their last match is at home to Reading.

[footyskillz]

I'll say it again, I will absolutely piss my pants if Wolves screw up promotion!

It'll be hilarious!

Only if the villa go up for me then can enjoy WBA and Wolves from afar and blues in league one.

[QuintonVilla]

The trouble with Cardiff is they never play well but keep winning. By all accounts Barnsley were all over them second half tonight and should have got something from the game. I'd rather lose out to Fulham than Cardiff, at least they're a good side who play decent football. Cardiff are spawny bastards.

[paul_e]

What I want from rest of the season:

4 points from Cardiff-QPR

4 points from Hull-Bolton

3 points from Reading

4 points from Norwich-Ipswich

6 points from Leeds-Cardiff

4 points from Derby-Millwall.

7 wins from 11. We would surely get second with that. 91 points.

Can't Fulham only get a maximum of 94 points?

Cardiff are only beating bottom half teams by a single goal. They have lots of tough away games coming up. They will surely drop points.

95, they're on 65 with 10 to go, not that it matters.

I go back to my thinking from earlier in the season that I don't think 85-86 will be enough, we need to be aiming for 90 points still, so 8 wins, or 7 and 3 draws, from the last 11.  I just wish we hadn't had a bad start and bad December so we hadn't been playing catchup all season.

[SoccerHQ]

The trouble with Cardiff is they never play well but keep winning. By all accounts Barnsley were all over them second half tonight and should have got something from the game. I'd rather lose out to Fulham than Cardiff, at least they're a good side who play decent football. Cardiff are spawny bastards.

Would still rather play Cardiff than Fulham in the play offs if it comes to that.

[brontebilly]

Leeds taking a point off Wolves tomorrow night would be huge, beating them a stretch too far I think. Our biggest game of season on Saturday, extra day break could be crucial. Not that our lads needed to break sweat tonight.

Boro will be a horrible side to play in playoffs. If the highlights are any guide, Downing and Traore seem to be going very well and Bamford has started to bang them in.

Fulham seem a very impressive side with the best coach in the division.

[tomd2103]

What I want from rest of the season:

4 points from Cardiff-QPR

4 points from Hull-Bolton

3 points from Reading

4 points from Norwich-Ipswich

6 points from Leeds-Cardiff

4 points from Derby-Millwall.

7 wins from 11. We would surely get second with that. 91 points.

Can't Fulham only get a maximum of 94 points?

Cardiff are only beating bottom half teams by a single goal. They have lots of tough away games coming up. They will surely drop points.

95, they're on 65 with 10 to go, not that it matters.

I go back to my thinking from earlier in the season that I don't think 85-86 will be enough, we need to be aiming for 90 points still, so 8 wins, or 7 and 3 draws, from the last 11.  I just wish we hadn't had a bad start and bad December so we hadn't been playing catchup all season.

Yep, it's going to take that kind of run I think Paul.  Was speaking to a Notts County fan at work who said they were in a similar position to us a few years ago with 11 games to go (Steve Cotterill was the manager there at the time funnily enough).  He said they won the next ten games on the bounce only losing on the last day of the season when they were already champions. 

[curiousorange]

It's in our hands. Beat Wolves and Cardiff in amongst that requirement of 8-9 wins and we're up. Don't and it's playoffs.

[David_Nab]

The trouble with Cardiff is they never play well but keep winning. By all accounts Barnsley were all over them second half tonight and should have got something from the game. I'd rather lose out to Fulham than Cardiff, at least they're a good side who play decent football. Cardiff are spawny bastards.

The trouble with Cardiff is they never play well but keep winning. By all accounts Barnsley were all over them second half tonight and should have got something from the game. I'd rather lose out to Fulham than Cardiff, at least they're a good side who play decent football. Cardiff are spawny bastards.

Would still rather play Cardiff than Fulham in the play offs if it comes to that.

Agreed , Cardiff at moment are just about doing enough ..Fulham are on fire

[ADVILLAFAN]

Google suggests the following points:-

Average needed to get into the playoffs = 73

Average needed for second place = 89

Average to win the league = 91

About another 10 points from 11 games would pretty much guarantee the playoffs. I’m not sure we can get to 89 points though. We’d need 23 points, or 7 wins and 2 draws with 2 losses.

Most of our trickier games are at home though.

[Dave P]

Most of our trickier games are at home though.

This is the key for me. I’d much rather be in our position.

[PeterWithesShin]

I think i'd prefer to be 4 points clear in 2nd.

[Archbishop Herbert Cockthrottle]

Wolves are bricking it. They are looking over their shoulders now and will be a spent force when they end up in the play offs. Villa? I think we’ll be taking the top spot.
I am not pissed btw.