The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Ad@m]

Think we need 7 points from next 3: forest away, Barnsley home and Sheffield utd away. Oh and shock Cup exit wouldn't go amiss, try out micah in goal.

Stop being so defeatist! One, let's call him a moron, rang up WM last night saying he thought as a minimum we need 8 points from the next three games!

[ciggiesnbeer]

With Steve Bruce's "The spectaculars" Aston Villa banging in five or six each game I reckon we will be alright.

[SoccerHQ]

Think we need 7 points from next 3: forest away, Barnsley home and Sheffield utd away. Oh and shock Cup exit wouldn't go amiss, try out micah in goal.

Stop being so defeatist! One, let's call him a moron, rang up WM last night saying he thought as a minimum we need 8 points from the next three games!

He was just a bit confused, probably thought Posh game was in the league.

Just as I was getting into the car there was a caller on there who said he'd been to the match as a neutral and we were useless, had no youth academy either, basically just saying the opposite of what actually happened.

Even Franks called him out given how ridiculous the points were, clearly a nose on the wind up.

[chrisw1]

Think we need 7 points from next 3: forest away, Barnsley home and Sheffield utd away. Oh and shock Cup exit wouldn't go amiss, try out micah in goal.

Stop being so defeatist! One, let's call him a moron, rang up WM last night saying he thought as a minimum we need 8 points from the next three games!

He was just a bit confused, probably thought Posh game was in the league.

Just as I was getting into the car there was a caller on there who said he'd been to the match as a neutral and we were useless, had no youth academy either, basically just saying the opposite of what actually happened.

Even Franks called him out given how ridiculous the points were, clearly a nose on the wind up.

I don't think the humour is about the cup game, it's about how exactly do you get 8 points from 3 games?  0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 9 are all possible.  But not 8.

[IFWaters]

Think we need 7 points from next 3: forest away, Barnsley home and Sheffield utd away. Oh and shock Cup exit wouldn't go amiss, try out micah in goal.

Stop being so defeatist! One, let's call him a moron, rang up WM last night saying he thought as a minimum we need 8 points from the next three games!

He was just a bit confused, probably thought Posh game was in the league.

Just as I was getting into the car there was a caller on there who said he'd been to the match as a neutral and we were useless, had no youth academy either, basically just saying the opposite of what actually happened.

Even Franks called him out given how ridiculous the points were, clearly a nose on the wind up.

I don't think the humour is about the cup game, it's about how exactly do you get 8 points from 3 games?  0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 9 are all possible.  But not 8.

That's why they're a moron.

[Dave P]

The aim for automatic promotion is around the 2 points per game mark.  Wolves are running at about 2.3 so are romping it.  Derby in 2nd are 1.88.  We are 1.7.

The aim for the end of Feb should be around 62 points.  Another 18 points from 8 games.  All are winnable: -

Forest (a)
Barnsley (h)
Sheff U (a)
Burton (h)
SHA (h)
Fulham (a)
Preston (h)
Sheff W (h)

[Toronto Villa]

Starting to look a lot rosier within the space of less than a week

I’m sure it won’t prevent another bout of despair next time we lose though!

We’re going to lose again this season. What people tend to get pissed off about is the manner in which we’ve lost games. In many we’ve been second best by a mile. If we lose trying to win them most will accept we have it a shot even if the result wasn’t as desired.

[Damo70]

Things seem to be coming together for us over Christmas and New Year. Reminiscent of our last promotion season.

[PeterWithesShin]

[cheltenhamlion]

Starting to look a lot rosier within the space of less than a week

I’m sure it won’t prevent another bout of despair next time we lose though!

We’re going to lose again this season. What people tend to get pissed off about is the manner in which we’ve lost games. In many we’ve been second best by a mile. If we lose trying to win them most will accept we have it a shot even if the result wasn’t as desired.

Yep. No sensible person expects us to win every game and chalk up a cricket score. We do expect to attack and try to win though. He would have a lot more goodwill in the tank if our losses were genuine off days or where we had a good go but were beaten by the better side on the day. If they come when you barely muster a shot, or punt it at Hogan's head from 40 yards away, then he is bound to cop some flak.

[SoccerHQ]

The aim for automatic promotion is around the 2 points per game mark.  Wolves are running at about 2.3 so are romping it.  Derby in 2nd are 1.88.  We are 1.7.

The aim for the end of Feb should be around 62 points.  Another 18 points from 8 games.  All are winnable: -

Forest (a)
Barnsley (h)
Sheff U (a)
Burton (h)
SHA (h)
Fulham (a)
Preston (h)
Sheff W (h)

85-88 points will be enough for automatic promotion I reckon. No stand out second place team like Brighton last year.

I'd be very surprised if Derby, us, Bristol or Cardiff got 90 points.

[MorrisNielson]

Just thought I’d put forward an alternative view on this 2 points per game malarkey to get close to automatic promotion.
If spread evenly throughout the season, 2 points per game means we need to take 4 points from each team (1 win, 1 draw), making a total of 92 points at the end of the season.

As we have only recently have passed the half way mark of the season, we can start to see how this is starting to pan out.
That good win against Bristol means we’ve took our 4 points quota from them. The same goes for Boro.
However, obviously we are 3 points behind this target for Brentford so there’s just a little bit of ground to make up there.

Assuming we win the return games of the other 5 games we’ve lost (yes, its a big assumption!), by my reckoning we could get 84 points at the moment (92, minus the 3 Brentford points & minus the other 5 points).

[brentastonb6]

If only this football malarkey were played on paper . I’m already dreaming of our final home game of the season against Derby when the winner goes up automatically, needless to say we win handsomely roared on by a full house passionate Villa Park. Sweet dreams fellow Villans

[mr underhill]

it would be great for the midlands if we, Wolves and Derby went up.

[chrisw1]

it would be great for the midlands if we, Wolves and Derby went up.

I would take that!