The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[eamonn]

Me too.

[Malandro]

Fuck off Bruce.

Glad tidings he brings in this season of goodwill.

Haha, you gotta love the H&V "voice" sometimes, especially at Crimbo it seems.

To be fair, I agree with aj2k77's sentiment.

With baubles on top

[Meanwood Villa]

What a horrendous month. We've lost points on everyone in the league bar Barnsley and Blues.

[cheltenhamlion]

What a horrendous month. We've lost points on everyone in the league bar Barnsley and Blues.

The table makes for very grim reading. If the results go the way I expect, then we will be heading back for the first day at work after New Year in 11 or 12th and with only 20 games to go. Just getting back on the play offs might be a fight. That simply isn't good enough and is made doubly frustrating by Cardiff faltering in recent weeks. We should be breathing down their necks and are instead looking up at Leeds and Middlesbrough, with a clutch of teams below us that could send us tumbling down the table with one win. Very, very poor.

[adrenachrome]

The probablity of promotion may be expressed as:




Where B = Brucey Blunderballs.
In layman's lingo; fergetaboutit, we are fucked by a fuckwit.

[Legion]

[ChicagoLion]

Other teams results are irrelevant if we can’t win matches.

[IFWaters]

At the risk of banging the same drum, if we had 2 points a game now (=48 points) we would now be second as Cardiff have choked and fallen behind that average. It really is a golden rule of promotion, you get that target, you get promoted.

In order to achieve that now requires nearly 2.5 points a game ; 18 wins from 22. If we've lost the next 2 at the end of New Years' Day then we would need a run BETTER than Man City to hit that target. In my view, that is D-Day for Bruce. If its then impossible I think he's then toast. In addition, the stink of decay will be too much, a team in freefall, again, and a chairman not sure whether to trust him with any more funds. I think if thats the case then Dr X will look at who can lift the squad, add a couple of loans and take us into the playoffs in winning form.

In the last 20 years of the championship playoffs, the team promoted has finished :

3rd - 8 times - 40%
4th - 2 times - 10%
5th - 6 times - 30%
6th - 4 times - 20%

So statistically that proves very little, apart from perhaps that it really would be best to finish 3rd for the twin advantadges of weakest opposition in the semi finals and home leg second. To get that we are probably still going to have to get 85-86 points. I havent had the time to look if there is a correlation between finishing with a strong winning streak and getting through but I would tend to think thats probably going to help to intimidate the opposition.

[sickbeggar]

Interesting fixtures this weekend. Derby and Leeds both away and cardiff playing Preston and wolves playing Bristol C. Only one of our rivals with a relatively easy game on paper is Sheff U. Of course us having Boro spoils it somewhat, but if ever a win was going to make the table look better its this weekend. Lose and i think that's it for Nan's hair

[eamonn]

Cardiff lost again! But Preston won so are now above us.

[SoccerHQ]

Still think 85 points will be enough.

Currently it's 94 points but that's if it's a 50 game season.

I wonder how far short we'll be off that at the end. It's frustrating as we have plenty winnable home games in February and March when you look at who we're playing.

[Clampy]

We just need to go on a good run again. We've already shown we can do it, but whether they have the confidence to at the moment is another thing.

[Des Little]

It’s always darkest before dawn.

In other words, the only way now is up.

Let’s do this you bastards

[Ads]

It’s always darkest before dawn.

In other words, the only way now is up.

Let’s do this you bastards

That's a bit two faced. We need a win to put a Dent into the lead others have over us.

[footyskillz]

Hey ifwalters where are we now on the maths so to speak?

Bristol have lost out and 1-2 with wolves so the promotion places are slightly closer right?

And 3 points on Monday could mean a narrow of the promotion gap?

Some questions to ask  how likely  for top 2 spots?   and how we looking for play offs? What is the revision of points for achievement

It was,  results wise,  good all round in favuors of the villa so hoping the maths match the matches left!?