The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Clampy]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

So we need to win every game otherwise we're not going to finish in the top two?

No. We're almost certainly going to have to win "tough" games away, against teams lower than us, though.

So who are we allowed to draw against?

[Villa75]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

So we need to win every game otherwise we're not going to finish in the top two?

No. We're almost certainly going to have to win "tough" games away, against teams lower than us, though.

So who are we allowed to draw against?

Well...deduct the teams "lower" than us, and what have you got?

[Clampy]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

So we need to win every game otherwise we're not going to finish in the top two?

No. We're almost certainly going to have to win "tough" games away, against teams lower than us, though.

So who are we allowed to draw against?

Well...deduct the teams "lower" than us, and what have you got?

Teams above us who we need to catch?

[Villa75]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

So we need to win every game otherwise we're not going to finish in the top two?

No. We're almost certainly going to have to win "tough" games away, against teams lower than us, though.

So who are we allowed to draw against?

Well...deduct the teams "lower" than us, and what have you got?

Teams above us who we need to catch?

Indeed. But you're forgetting they have to come to Villa Park, where we must get 3 points against them.

4 points against the teams above us will do nicely.

It's been an OK way of wasting a few hours on a Sunday morning, but I must get on. Before I go though, I'll just remind you of the original point I was making;

After the latest round of games, we have slipped further behind the top 2. That's a fact.

The following is my opinion;

Doing as we are will probably be good enough for a playoff place. We will need to do even better if we are going to get automatic promotion.

[Clampy]

Yes, it's been tremendous fun. Agree to disagree and all that.

[SoccerHQ]

Before this week's games we were 4th after we are 5th. Those are the facts. Team feeling elated is justified as they did very well coming back from a goal down however that does not alter facts.

How many points were we behind Sheffield United 3-4 weeks ago? My post was more along the lines of three weeks ago we were about 10 points behind Sheffield United and now the gap is 1 point.

Hold my hands up I didn't actually realise Bristol City could go above us yesterday with a win. Thought they were on the same points as Derby are.

My point remains though at start of November we must've been significantly adrift of 3rd and now we've cut it down to a single point. That was what I was trying to get at regardless of league position.

[SoccerHQ]

10 points from every 4 games would.

We'd finish with nearly 100 points wouldn't we?

Posted the fixtures on another site but have a look at Cardiff's fixtures in March and April. Think that's going to be the crucial period for automatic promotion. If we can keep to within 5 points of them I'd fancy us to nick ahead around Easter.

[Ads]

And it's the point most of us understood SHQ.

[sickbeggar]

Winning at home and picking up draws away at the better teams is very good form. Unfortunately others are doing better, and until they get worse or we get better they will continue to pull away from us. The reality is cardiff and wolves are winning 4 or 5 games out of 5 currently while we are winning 3. I fully expect both teams above won't be keeping up that form all season but for us to take advantage and claw back the 3 wins needed to go above cardiff we have to hope they either go completely to pot for a month or we start hitting their type of form .That is why leeds was a good result on paper but not so good when compared to the opposition. Obviously we are in a tough line up of games at the moment and hopefully cardiff and wolves still have these to come, but nevertheless we have to take advantage when it does and also make sure they haven't got too much of a points cushion for us to catch them.


Looking at the 6 games in december, i'd be happy with 3 wins as a bottom line, so the 2 homes games plus Brentford away. Anything from leeds, Boro and derby in that context is a bonus imo.

[nick harper]

Winning at home and picking up draws away at the better teams is very good form. Unfortunately others are doing better, and until they get worse or we get better they will continue to pull away from us. The reality is cardiff and wolves are winning 4 or 5 games out of 5 currently while we are winning 3. I fully expect both teams above won't be keeping up that form all season but for us to take advantage and claw back the 3 wins needed to go above cardiff we have to hope they either go completely to pot for a month or we start hitting their type of form .That is why leeds was a good result on paper but not so good when compared to the opposition. Obviously we are in a tough line up of games at the moment and hopefully cardiff and wolves still have these to come, but nevertheless we have to take advantage when it does and also make sure they haven't got too much of a points cushion for us to catch them.

Cardiff and Wolves will both end up with more than 100 points if they carry on their current form. Neither are as good or have the strength in depth that Newcastle or Brighton had last season.

We are nicely placed. If we are no further off the top two by the turn of the year, we have a great chance of top two.

[sickbeggar]

Winning at home and picking up draws away at the better teams is very good form. Unfortunately others are doing better, and until they get worse or we get better they will continue to pull away from us. The reality is cardiff and wolves are winning 4 or 5 games out of 5 currently while we are winning 3. I fully expect both teams above won't be keeping up that form all season but for us to take advantage and claw back the 3 wins needed to go above cardiff we have to hope they either go completely to pot for a month or we start hitting their type of form .That is why leeds was a good result on paper but not so good when compared to the opposition. Obviously we are in a tough line up of games at the moment and hopefully cardiff and wolves still have these to come, but nevertheless we have to take advantage when it does and also make sure they haven't got too much of a points cushion for us to catch them.

Cardiff and Wolves will both end up with more than 100 points if they carry on their current form. Neither are as good or have the strength in depth that Newcastle or Brighton had last season.

We are nicely placed. If we are no further off the top two by the turn of the year, we have a great chance of top two.

Well looking at the december fixtures, cardiff have 4 homes games and their two aways are against bolton and reading! So i can't see them getting less points than us. Wolves have a much harder december so i guess we'll see just how good they are.

[ciggiesnbeer]

Its an interesting question though, are they both over performing vs their squad & manager... or are we?

Wolves I really cant figure out, but Cardiff, I am pretty convinced they are ounching about their weight right now. As for us, I am actually starting to believe we are solid.We seem far less likely to crumble than we have for a few seasons which is good. The forced rotation of several key members may end up actually helping us in the long run. We have learnt quite a few good things about some of our players because if it.

[sickbeggar]

Its an interesting question though, are they both over performing vs their squad & manager... or are we?

Wolves I really cant figure out, but Cardiff, I am pretty convinced they are ounching about their weight right now. As for us, I am actually starting to believe we are solid.We seem far less likely to crumble than we have for a few seasons which is good. The forced rotation of several key members may end up actually helping us in the long run. We have learnt quite a few good things about some of our players because if it.

yep certain players have stepped up to the plate but i do worry if there isn't any incomings come January. The biggest weakness is goals and if adomah gets injured or has a dip in form, currently i can't see where they'd be coming from.

[ciggiesnbeer]

Its an interesting question though, are they both over performing vs their squad & manager... or are we?

Wolves I really cant figure out, but Cardiff, I am pretty convinced they are ounching about their weight right now. As for us, I am actually starting to believe we are solid.We seem far less likely to crumble than we have for a few seasons which is good. The forced rotation of several key members may end up actually helping us in the long run. We have learnt quite a few good things about some of our players because if it.

yep certain players have stepped up to the plate but i do worry if there isn't any incomings come January. The biggest weakness is goals and if adomah gets injured or has a dip in form, currently i can't see where they'd be coming from.

To be fair our midfield has been chipping in WAY more than they have in previous seasons. But for sure a new forward in January is a must. Bruce has said thats his priority as well so I reckon we will get someone.

[Clampy]

Winning at home and picking up draws away at the better teams is very good form.

Isn't that what we have been doing apart from Cardiff and Wolves?