The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Villa75]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

[Des Little]

I think that if we can get to January in the form we are in now, the relevant additions will be made to get us up automatically. This really is opening up for us now.

[Villa75]

I think that if we can get to January in the form we are in now, the relevant additions will be made to get us up automatically. This really is opening up for us now.

If we do that and others around us do the same (and no better), we will be 4th - 13 points behind Wolves and 9 points behind Cardiff - with over half the season gone.

[Clampy]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

[Ads]

It's a good point at Leeds and keeps us taking more than 2 per game on average of late, which is what we need to do. It's a long season and I'm confident we have the ability to keep this going, based on the strength of our squad.

Over sides may make gains, but we had the hardest fixture of the weekend. Burton at home and Norwich at home isn't quite the same.

[Ads]

I think that if we can get to January in the form we are in now, the relevant additions will be made to get us up automatically. This really is opening up for us now.

If we do that and others around us do the same (and no better), we will be 4th - 13 points behind Wolves and 9 points behind Cardiff - with over half the season gone.

I think you're being deliberately obtuse. We might as well all call it a day now and just crack on with the Play Offs is nothing is going to change.

[Clampy]

I think that if we can get to January in the form we are in now, the relevant additions will be made to get us up automatically. This really is opening up for us now.

If we do that and others around us do the same (and no better), we will be 4th - 13 points behind Wolves and 9 points behind Cardiff - with over half the season gone.

I think you're being deliberately obtuse. We might as well all call it a day now and just crack on with the Play Offs is nothing is going to change.

This is it. Teams will drop points. Sheff Utd have picked up 1 in their last 9 for example.

[Villa75]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

I'm not sure I was trying to suggest anything with my original comment. I think I was adding a different perspective to 'keep doing what we're doing and then we're 3rd then 1 small step from 2nd'.

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

Just my opinion.

[saunders_heroes]

Other than Boro all the tops teams have still to come to Villa Park this season. That’s what’ll decide if we go up automatic or not, in my opinion.

[Villa75]

I think that if we can get to January in the form we are in now, the relevant additions will be made to get us up automatically. This really is opening up for us now.

If we do that and others around us do the same (and no better), we will be 4th - 13 points behind Wolves and 9 points behind Cardiff - with over half the season gone.

I think you're being deliberately obtuse. We might as well all call it a day now and just crack on with the Play Offs is nothing is going to change.

I don't think that would be fair on the teams behind us though. They might think they have a chance of catching and passing some in the top 6.

No. I think it's only fair to play until the end of the season.

[Ads]

10 points from every 4 games would.

[Virgil Caine]

As a point of interest what is SB’s record of promotions via playoffs as against automatic promotion? I would be very confident if in the playoffs of getting to the Wembley ‘final’ as over the two legs I am sure we would get through, regardless of who we played. However, I could imagine that at Wembley he may revert to type and avoid losing rather than going for the win- I’m too old and with high blood pressure to be able to stand a penalty shoot out.

[Clampy]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

So we need to win every game otherwise we're not going to finish in the top two?

[Villa75]

10 points from every 4 games would.

It would. But we're not managing 2.5 points per game.

You're factoring in guaranteed home wins there which I have not mentioned. In fact, I think I can remember at least 4 slip-ups at home this season. Although I'm not sure where the respective opposition teams were at the time, so they could have been "good" single points or losses.

[Villa75]

You don't have to understand any logic, as I'm quoting facts not an opinion.

After another round of games in the Championship, some teams moved 2 points further ahead of us and one team overtook us. Some teams also got closer behind us by 2 points, but we won't worry about that just yet.

So what do you suggest because we're not going to win every game are we?

Thinking about it though, I'm not sure draws away at teams like Leeds are going to get us automatic promotion.

We have Derby away soon, who are higher than Leeds, so I presume another draw there is a good result? Then Middlesbrough away at the end of December who are only a point behind Leeds at this point, so a draw there will be a good result as well?

A point away at Leeds isn't disastrous. Same with Derby or Middlesbrough (as I'm sure some will point out should it happen). Probably won't get us top 2 though.

So we need to win every game otherwise we're not going to finish in the top two?

No. We're almost certainly going to have to win "tough" games away, against teams lower than us, though.