The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Villa75]

At the risk of being attacked again, I'm going to make a prediction of 11 points from November.

[Drummond]

At the risk of being attacked again, I'm going to make a prediction of 11 points from November.

I want to attack you for saying you're going to be attacked. But I can't be arsed.

[Villa75]

At the risk of being attacked again, I'm going to make a prediction of 11 points from November.

I want to attack you for saying you're going to be attacked. But I can't be arsed.

It's easy. Just start off by claiming I'm being 'overly negative', and go on from there.

[SoccerHQ]

4 points from the next two away games and we've got a great chance of making the top 2 within the next month.

Hang on, you're saying the way we set up means we won't reach Top 2. Yet we've drawn today and are therefore on target with your prediction for Top 2.

Wanted 4 points from these two games so pressure on us to win at Preston.

Will we even win 10 away games this season? Don't see how we can get top 2 if that is the case. We're obviously going to drop points at home between now and May so that's where just nicking draws away from home falls down.

[Richard]

Difference to last season though is that no way will 2 teams run away with it like Newcastle and Brighton. I can see 6 or 7 in contention for automatic inc us.

[SoccerHQ]

I would agree with that.

We need minimum of 60 more points this season to be in with a serious chance of top 2 so pretty much 20 wins. I'd say 10 away wins needed.

[Drummond]

4 points from the next two away games and we've got a great chance of making the top 2 within the next month.

Hang on, you're saying the way we set up means we won't reach Top 2. Yet we've drawn today and are therefore on target with your prediction for Top 2.

Wanted 4 points from these two games so pressure on us to win at Preston.

Will we even win 10 away games this season? Don't see how we can get top 2 if that is the case. We're obviously going to drop points at home between now and May so that's where just nicking draws away from home falls down.

Hang on, there's no pressure on us. You saying there's pressure doesn't mean there is any. We're 2nd in the form table. A win would be good but isn't essential.

[Abbeyfealeavfc]

Using Brighton's stats from last season, after yesterday's draw, we now cannot match Brighton's total points haul after 22 games (virtually half the season) which was 48. Bristol City can if they win their next 8 games (unlikely). Cardiff are on track, whereas Sheffield Utd and Wolves are currently on track to exceed 48. All things considered this makes our task of achieving auto promotion more difficult. To stand any chance we need to start winning more away fixtures (clearly 2 out of 7 isn't good enough), whilst maintaining solid home form where the focus again should be on wins rather than draws.

[in exile]

At the risk of being attacked again, I'm going to make a prediction of 11 points from November.

You're being overly negative again

[Villa75]

At the risk of being attacked again, I'm going to make a prediction of 11 points from November.

You're being overly negative again

You're thinking 12, aren't you?

[IFWaters]

Using Brighton's stats from last season, after yesterday's draw, we now cannot match Brighton's total points haul after 22 games (virtually half the season) which was 48. Bristol City can if they win their next 8 games (unlikely). Cardiff are on track, whereas Sheffield Utd and Wolves are currently on track to exceed 48. All things considered this makes our task of achieving auto promotion more difficult. To stand any chance we need to start winning more away fixtures (clearly 2 out of 7 isn't good enough), whilst maintaining solid home form where the focus again should be on wins rather than draws.

Er, statistically, thats not quite right. Yes Brighton did get to 48 points in 22 games BUT over the whole season finished with 93 points for 2nd place from 46 games. That is the first time in 10 years automatic promotion was achieved with over 2 points a game. In fact, being picky, as Reading finished in 3rd with only 85 points, Brighton would only have needed 86 points to achieve promotion.

Whichever way you cut it, if a team averages 2 points a game over the whole season, they will get promoted. That should be our only target. At the moment we are 5 points off that target. Although the top 3 are all at or above that points average I think Cardiff and Sheff Utd dont have good enough squads to keep it up.

A point away to SHA isnt below target, but it hasnt helped us catch up, As others have said, the catching up has to be done away from home, and for me that meams Kod getting back to last seasons' form.

[Villa75]

5 points behind our automatic promotion target doesn't sound to bad. Until you equate it to needing to have bettered our current points total by nearly 22%.

We won't draw ourselves to promotion, especially from where we are. But, I just know, if we draw away at Preston there are many, Bruce included, who will come out and say it's a good result.

Bruce needs to be brave before it's too late and we're relying on the playoff lottery. Games come and go very fast in this division.

[ChicagoLion]

5 points behind our automatic promotion target doesn't sound to bad. Until you equate it to needing to have bettered our current points total by nearly 22%.

We won't draw ourselves to promotion, especially from where we are. But, I just know, if we draw away at Preston there are many, Bruce included, who will come out and say it's a good result.

Bruce needs to be brave before it's too late and we're relying on the playoff lottery. Games come and go very fast in this division.

Our away record will do for us,particularly now as we are trying to play catch up.

[QuintonVilla]

Down to 8th at the moment. Bristol City, Derby, Boro all flying. Need to win tomorrow and start to win away regularly at decent opposition.

[SoccerHQ]

In fairness I do think we'll have a good run up to xmas. Ipswich, Sunderland, Sheff Weds and Millwall the home games, I'd fancy 10 points from that. Aways at PNE, Leeds, QPR and derby. Tricky but again 7-8 points is realistic.

If we can be on 40 points going into the xmas period I think that's a good first half of the season particularly given our start.