The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Chris Smith]

Just had a quick look at Newcastle's  and Brighton's results last season and neither of them had a five game run as bad as the one we've started with ALL season. The playoff format always gives you more of a chance but barring outstanding runs of form which I just can't see we've probably already fucked up automatic promotion.

Nah, I think it's too early for that. I still stick to the old maxim that you only get a true picture after 10 games.

What struck me looking at the table is I doubt anyone expected Cardiff and Ipswich to be the top 2 and the former to have a 100% record.

[Meanwood Villa]

And Burnley went on a run of 1 win in 8, losing three in the process. They won the league.

Fair point. They went the entire second half of the season without losing, winning 16 of those 23 games. I can't see us doing that. That's perhaps ingrained pessimism or more likely the evidence before my eyes of 40 games of Bruce.

[sickbeggar]

It is early days but it shows how important a good start is. 8 points off 2nd place after 5 games is already piling the pressure on. If we do finally find a winning formula then its going to have to be a very impressive winning formula to make up the points. Another month of iffy results and you're looking at 15 plus points off the pace

[kippaxvilla2]

Leeds strike me as being the real deal this season.  They're currently grinding out a 1-0 win away at Forest playing much the same way as Newcastle and Brighton did last year.

[Matt Collins]

Leeds strike me as being the real deal this season.  They're currently grinding out a 1-0 win away at Forest playing much the same way as Newcastle and Brighton did last year.

They did look good

Mind you, they did draw their last two home games 0-0

But that does mean 4 clean sheets in a row. As much as people are complaining that we're not attacking enough, if you look at the results it's the lack of a single clean sheet this season that really stands out. I'd assumed we'd have had two or three by now.

So I disagreed with three at the back on Friday but I do understand why Bruce was looking to improve our defence

[Ad@m]

So I disagreed with three at the back on Friday but I do understand why Bruce was looking to improve our defence

I don't.

Our club needs to get in to the habit of winning and dominating teams, like we should with the squad we've got.  So when the club has just come off the back of two 4-something wins let them do it again, don't fuck with the formation for fear of Bristol City scoring.

That's my biggest gripe with Bruce - he seems utterly preoccupied with the opposition.  With the squad we've got we shouldn't give a shit about 90% of this division, we should be safe in the knowledge we'll score more than them and play to our strengths rather than worrying all the time about theirs.

[Ads]

And Burnley went on a run of 1 win in 8, losing three in the process. They won the league.

Fair point. They went the entire second half of the season without losing, winning 16 of those 23 games. I can't see us doing that. That's perhaps ingrained pessimism or more likely the evidence before my eyes of 40 games of Bruce.

I bet Burnley fans couldn't see them doing that either.

[Matt Collins]

Since 2010 Aston Villa have had the worst away form of any side in any division

The suggestion we should be able to just stick our chests out and own the opposition doesn't seem right to me

[clash city rocker]

Tonight wolves are 11'/4 to win the league and we are 18/1... how the fuck have we fallen so far in Midlands football let alone English football.

[Villa75]

Since 2010 Aston Villa have had the worst away form of any side in any division

The suggestion we should be able to just stick our chests out and own the opposition doesn't seem right to me

You think we should continue with our current approach of, "we've been shit for years so we'll meekly turn up and hope for a draw"?

[Matt Collins]

No I think it will be a struggle and ongoing improvement rather than simply turning it around

We didn't last season and that wasn't good enough. And the first two away games were even worse

I'm not happy we are where we are. But there are some quite encouraging signs in my view. Bruce still has a lot to do, but my position has always been that we do need stability at some point and the grass isn't always greener.

Norwich went down the Huddersfield route and it's clearly not working. People's favourite jokanovic has just gone three games without scoring. Dean Smith is bottom of the the league

[ktvillan]

I know it was very different times but I just had a look at our results for 1974-75 season.  3 draws, 1 win and a defeat from the first 5 games,  didn't win away until 5th October, and then no further way wins until 4th January. Pretty mediocre up to Christmas to say the least and I doubt many of us were even contemplating promotion at that stage.   We then won 8 of our last 9 away games and most of our home games from January onwards.  Might just be a reminder that it's a bit early to be worried about getting cut-off from the promotion spots.  But of course it would require us to go on a fairly lengthy winning streak at some stage.

Don't forget it was Saunders first season and he was rebuilding a side that had lost its way a bit.

I wasn't criticising OMVF, far from it, just using it as an example of how pretty much half a season can be Meh! but rescued by an exceptional other half.  But of course as someone has pointed out above we had the great Ron Saunders in charge back then to inspire that exceptional run.  And now we have Bruce......

[oswald funkletrumpet]

So I disagreed with three at the back on Friday but I do understand why Bruce was looking to improve our defence

I don't.

Our club needs to get in to the habit of winning and dominating teams, like we should with the squad we've got.  So when the club has just come off the back of two 4-something wins let them do it again, don't fuck with the formation for fear of Bristol City scoring.

That's my biggest gripe with Bruce - he seems utterly preoccupied with the opposition.  With the squad we've got we shouldn't give a shit about 90% of this division, we should be safe in the knowledge we'll score more than them and play to our strengths rather than worrying all the time about theirs.

Is the correct answer

the majority of teams in this league are shit but bruce shits himself of going all out against bristol fucking city

[SoccerHQ]

Just had a quick look at Newcastle's  and Brighton's results last season and neither of them had a five game run as bad as the one we've started with ALL season. The playoff format always gives you more of a chance but barring outstanding runs of form which I just can't see we've probably already fucked up automatic promotion.

Both lost twice early on last season so neither were invincible early on.

We really need to get motoring though, plenty of winnable games next month but we need to go out like v Norwich and win them convincingly.

[ChicagoLion]

Since 2010 Aston Villa have had the worst away form of any side in any division

The suggestion we should be able to just stick our chests out and own the opposition doesn't seem right to me

You think we should continue with our current approach of, "we've been shit for years so we'll meekly turn up and hope for a draw"?

Its the Bruce way.