The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Crikey that's a massive chance to pick up points. 4 wins minimum. The two away games are big opportunities too.

Yup. I said yesterday I see September as a great opportunity to pick up maximum points. There's some pretty easy games in there. It's just a shame we don't play on paper.

We need to be in full force going into October when we have a few tough games.

[kippaxvilla2]

We are four points behind where Newcastle were going into the first international break this time last year.  They had also lost two games by that time.

[ktvillan]

I know it was very different times but I just had a look at our results for 1974-75 season.  3 draws, 1 win and a defeat from the first 5 games,  didn't win away until 5th October, and then no further way wins until 4th January. Pretty mediocre up to Christmas to say the least and I doubt many of us were even contemplating promotion at that stage.   We then won 8 of our last 9 away games and most of our home games from January onwards.  Might just be a reminder that it's a bit early to be worried about getting cut-off from the promotion spots.  But of course it would require us to go on a fairly lengthy winning streak at some stage.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

We are four points behind where Newcastle were going into the first international break this time last year.  They had also lost two games by that time.

By 5pm tonight we could be 10 points behind the leaders which will be some achievement after only 5 games.

[Villa75]

I know it was very different times but I just had a look at our results for 1974-75 season.  3 draws, 1 win and a defeat from the first 5 games,  didn't win away until 5th October, and then no further way wins until 4th January. Pretty mediocre up to Christmas to say the least and I doubt many of us were even contemplating promotion at that stage.   We then won 8 of our last 9 away games and most of our home games from January onwards.  Might just be a reminder that it's a bit early to be worried about getting cut-off from the promotion spots.  But of course it would require us to go on a fairly lengthy winning streak at some stage.

Surely last season's performance carries more weight than 1974-75?

In which case I don't think it is too early to be worried.

[passport1]

One key difference. The manager we had then and the one we are lumbered with now.

[VillaAlways]

7 points from automatic spots.

[Matt Collins]

We definitely need a run of victories quickly

Luckily we've a great opportunity to do that - and little excuse if we don't

But until we've had a few more games I see little point in obsessing on the league position or point differences - especially as the teams in automatic promotion positions seem unlikely to run away with the league

[paul richard]

The fixtures in September come thick and fast.  Six league games plus Boro in the League Cup.  Those six fixtures all look winnable to me: four home games against moderate sides, plus two away games against the sort of sides we should be beating as a matter of routine. That's 18 pts up for grabs.  We should realistically be looking for a points haul close to maximum from those games.  Bruce will need to be on his toes, adopting a positive outlook, keeping a consistent team shape but shuffling the pack in an intelligent manner to keep individual players fresh and the team on the front foot.  He has the squad to do it. What are the chances?

[SoccerHQ]

I know it was very different times but I just had a look at our results for 1974-75 season.  3 draws, 1 win and a defeat from the first 5 games,  didn't win away until 5th October, and then no further way wins until 4th January. Pretty mediocre up to Christmas to say the least and I doubt many of us were even contemplating promotion at that stage.   We then won 8 of our last 9 away games and most of our home games from January onwards.  Might just be a reminder that it's a bit early to be worried about getting cut-off from the promotion spots.  But of course it would require us to go on a fairly lengthy winning streak at some stage.

What points did Villa finish on to get promoted that year out of interest?

[Meanwood Villa]

I know it was very different times but I just had a look at our results for 1974-75 season.  3 draws, 1 win and a defeat from the first 5 games,  didn't win away until 5th October, and then no further way wins until 4th January. Pretty mediocre up to Christmas to say the least and I doubt many of us were even contemplating promotion at that stage.   We then won 8 of our last 9 away games and most of our home games from January onwards.  Might just be a reminder that it's a bit early to be worried about getting cut-off from the promotion spots.  But of course it would require us to go on a fairly lengthy winning streak at some stage.

What points did Villa finish on to get promoted that year out of interest?

With 3 points for a win (which it wasn't) would have been 83 off 42 games.

[Deano's Mullet]

Still early but second season in, 18th after five games is depressing.

[Meanwood Villa]

Just had a quick look at Newcastle's  and Brighton's results last season and neither of them had a five game run as bad as the one we've started with ALL season. The playoff format always gives you more of a chance but barring outstanding runs of form which I just can't see we've probably already fucked up automatic promotion.

[Ads]

And Burnley went on a run of 1 win in 8, losing three in the process. They won the league.

[old man villa fan]

I know it was very different times but I just had a look at our results for 1974-75 season.  3 draws, 1 win and a defeat from the first 5 games,  didn't win away until 5th October, and then no further way wins until 4th January. Pretty mediocre up to Christmas to say the least and I doubt many of us were even contemplating promotion at that stage.   We then won 8 of our last 9 away games and most of our home games from January onwards.  Might just be a reminder that it's a bit early to be worried about getting cut-off from the promotion spots.  But of course it would require us to go on a fairly lengthy winning streak at some stage.

Don't forget it was Saunders first season and he was rebuilding a side that had lost its way a bit.