The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Steve67]

Injuries mounting up but hopefully not serious to Jedinak and Davis. The next few games are huge. Leeds, Derby and Sheffield United particularly.  Tough games but if we want promotion........

[Matt Collins]

We can deal w an injury to Jedinak but davis would be a disaster

[QuintonVilla]

Wolves will piss the league. It will be between us and Derby for 2nd imo. Then another 7/8 teams vying for the play offs.

[Ads]

Sheffield United are begining to creak.

Their last 5 games have been against sides 12th, 16th, 20th 21st and 23rd in league,which has yielded 2 wins, 2 defeats and a draw.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Agree, Ads. As I mentioned on the Other games/Post Match thread, I thought they were lucky to get the draw tonight. The Rags could have/should have been 2 or 3 up but for the stupidity of their players. Match most team's workrate and there's little to separate most of the division. With our squad depth and talent we should be able to push on over the winter.

Sheff Utd reminded me very much of us, maybe a bit more urgency to their game but no great shakes. I can't see them lasting the winter nevermind the season.

[kippaxvilla2]

Is it me or does from December to end of the season look a bit daunting fixtures wise?  Anyway I have predicted another 51 points for us.   86 in total.

[Matt Collins]

Is it me or does from December to end of the season look a bit daunting fixtures wise?  Anyway I have predicted another 51 points for us.   86 in total.

Isn’t it broadly a mirror image of August to December?

[OzVilla]

Yes, December does look horrible, not looked further than that.  We might not need to if we have a bad December.

[kippaxvilla2]

Is it me or does from December to end of the season look a bit daunting fixtures wise?  Anyway I have predicted another 51 points for us.   86 in total.

Isn’t it broadly a mirror image of August to December?

I know I’m not doing logic.  It just seemed like we had tougher fixtures away.  I’m just being a Villa fan of late.

[olaftab]

Sheff Utd are in the bag so next target is Cardiff. Hopefully they will slip tomorrow but I expect us to go past them sooner rather than later.

[olaftab]

This is the table over last 20. I think this  how it will finish come May 2018.
https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10154778518207282&id=577652281&set=gm.10155967504093914&source=48&ref=m_notif&notif_t=feed_comment_reply

[Rudy Can't Fail]

If as expected, Derby beat Ipswich during the week, the play off teams will have a 5 point gap against those chasing. Of those below only Boro and Leeds look likely to be able to catch up. Still early days, I know but realistically I can't see anybody else with the possible exception of Sheff Weds being in the race for the play offs.

Of course our target, given the strength of our squad, should only be to finish in the top 2.

[Matt Collins]

Our fixtures are tough in December. I fancy us to do ok as long as we don’t get key players injured

But Cardiff’s fixtures look a lot easier and they could build up a bigger margin, even if we do ok

Thy have: Norwich, Reading, Hull, Bolton, Fulham, Preston

[eamonn]

They'll struggle with those. Fulham will dob 'em and they'll get a lot of low-scoring draws. They're as dull as us.

[SirSteveUK]

A bit like the NFL's "Strength of Schedule", the following shows each teams SoS both Home and Away.
The lower the number - the tougher the schedule. As can be seen, we appear to have the 2nd hardest Home Schedule - which is no surprise as we have only played 1 of the Top 8 at Home.

And despite the fact they have now played at Sheff Utd - Blues still have the 'toughest' Away Schedule 

This methodology is not as effective as in the PL - as we all know - there is more chance of 'upsets' in the Championship than in the PL.