The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Brassneck]

9 wins and 2 draws puts us on 89 points.

As you say, we've got to be positive. Cardiff seem to have found a knack of grinding out wins - I'm not convinced we could do that 9 times out of 13. We need to be looking to win every game we play in now. Going for draws hasn't really worked for us.

[Ad@m]

I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.

[tomd2103]

With Grealish and Adomah on the sidelines, we might just have to grind through games and hoping others around us drop points.  Hopefully those two will return soon and we can then look at putting the kind of run together that will see us home.

[Ads]

I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.

Not really. We beat sides up there, smashed one silly in fact. The other two were away from home as well. We lost to Fulham, who drew to the side we hammered which is evidence of how tight it is.

7 of the last 13 are against bottom half sides  where if we win all of them [and your accusation is we're flat track bullies] then we'd probably need to avoid defeat against Cardiff and Derby and have enough in the balance to go up 2nd.

Millwall
Bolton
Hull
Sunderland
Sheffield Wednesday
Reading
QPR

All bottom half sides;

Leeds
Norwhich
Ipswich

All mid-table going nowhere.

Wolves
Derby
Cardiff

All rivals, but all have to come to the hardest place to pick up points in the league, the home of football where adding context, we may not need to beat the latter two, simply avoid defeat to maintain the gap.

As I say, the goal should be statistical certainty, but in the context of what others do, win the next 3, get back to second and matching Cardiff/Derby/Fulham will be enough. That may be 90 points, it probably will be a bit less.

Come Bruce you fucker, its on a plate. You know what to do with things on a plate surely.

[Brassneck]

I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.

Bristol City at home, Middlesbrough and Sheff U away were not easy games by any stretch.

All teams around us have difficult games so it's the same problem for each team. 9 is only an estimate - It could be that 8 or even 7 would be enough.

[Ads]

I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.

Bristol City at home, Middlesbrough and Sheff U away were not easy games by any stretch.

All teams around us have difficult games so it's the same problem for each team. 9 is only an estimate - It could be that 8 or even 7 would be enough.

I think we're in broad agreement. Aim for what we know will send us up and it will likely turn out to be more than enough. But the onus is on us to win games. If we set about teams, we more often than not win the game.

I feel a lot more positive having broken down our fixtures into tranches. Doing the same for Cardiff;

Burton
Forrest
SHA
Barnsley
Reading
Hull

Are their bottom half sides;

Brentford
Norwich

Mid table sides;

Bristol City
Wolves
Us [away]
Sheffield United [away]
Derby [away]

The rivals.

I think their fixtures are a lot nastier than ours. March looks tricky,a s do their immediate next two games with a Derby and Brentford hoping to move up into the next tranche.

[preston28]

I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.

Bristol City at home, Middlesbrough and Sheff U away were not easy games by any stretch.

All teams around us have difficult games so it's the same problem for each team. 9 is only an estimate - It could be that 8 or even 7 would be enough.

I think we're in broad agreement. Aim for what we know will send us up and it will likely turn out to be more than enough. But the onus is on us to win games. If we set about teams, we more often than not win the game.

I feel a lot more positive having broken down our fixtures into tranches. Doing the same for Cardiff;

Burton
Forrest
SHA
Barnsley
Reading
Hull

Are their bottom half sides;

Brentford
Norwich

Mid table sides;

Bristol City
Wolves
Us [away]
Sheffield United [away]
Derby [away]

The rivals.

I think their fixtures are a lot nastier than ours. March looks tricky,a s do their immediate next two games with a Derby and Brentford hoping to move up into the next tranche.

Cardiff have to play Bristol (H) and Derby (A) in March and their April is tricky with Sheff U (A), Wolves (H) and us away.
Derby have Fulham and Cardiff (H) and in April they have PNE (A), Wolves (A) and Us (A).
Fulham have a tricky March - Wolves (A), Derby (A), Sheff U (H) and PNE (A) whilst they have an easier April with perjaps Brentford away the toughest?

last game of the season we (IMO) have the hardest game - Millwall (A) whilst Cardiff have Reading (H), Derby Barnsley (H) and Fulham Burton (A).

All to play for and as long as we don't self implode no reason we can't get second spot, particularly if we beat Cardiff and Derby at home. UTV

[SoccerHQ]

I reckon Cardff will get about six points from their tough run in March-April.

Derby- Loss
Sheffield United- draw
Wolves- Draw
Us- draw
Norwich- win.

I can see them losing at Brentford aswell.

6 points from six games.

If they win every other game they finish on 91 points hmmm.

I personally think anything around 90 points is beyond us. 85-88 points is still very possible but we need to start winning quick.

[Ads]

I don't see them winning 9 more games and I don't see them avoiding defeat in all but one of those fixtures.

[Toronto Villa]

Lots wil change between now and the end of the season. I’m sure some Cardiff fans were kissing us goodbye just a 10 days ago after we stuffed the rags. Cardiff have done really well but they’re not Real Madrid by any stretch. They’ll have their bumps along the way. We need to get back to winning ourselves starting this weekend.

[Matt Collins]

Those fixture breakdowns have made me a lot chirpier

Thanks guys

I’ve still got a nasty hangover mind

[Ads]

Wednesday
QPR
Sunderland
Wolves
Bolton
Hull

Think we've got to be looking at 14 points from that lot. Would leave us needing 3-5 wins from the final 7, but with the two six pointers I guess it's harder to predict what we will actually need.

[Ad@m]

Wednesday
QPR
Sunderland
Wolves
Bolton
Hull

Think we've got to be looking at 14 points from that lot. Would leave us needing 3-5 wins from the final 7, but with the two six pointers I guess it's harder to predict what we will actually need.

In the cold light of day, looking at that list, for any team expecting to go up automatically Sunderland, Bolton and Hull should be a guaranteed 9 points, Wednesday and QPR should be tougher but still winnable and even Wolves at home should be a win if we're going up automatically.

It's only Bruce's safety-first tactics that kill my confidence.

[exiled on the wirral!]

I know we've just won 7 out of 9 but compare the teams we've played in that run to the teams we've got to play between now and the end of the season and 9 wins and 2 draws from 13 looks way beyond us to me.

Not really. We beat sides up there, smashed one silly in fact. The other two were away from home as well. We lost to Fulham, who drew to the side we hammered which is evidence of how tight it is.

7 of the last 13 are against bottom half sides  where if we win all of them [and your accusation is we're flat track bullies] then we'd probably need to avoid defeat against Cardiff and Derby and have enough in the balance to go up 2nd.

Millwall
Bolton
Hull
Sunderland
Sheffield Wednesday
Reading
QPR

All bottom half sides;

Leeds
Norwhich
Ipswich

All mid-table going nowhere.

Wolves
Derby
Cardiff

All rivals, but all have to come to the hardest place to pick up points in the league, the home of football where adding context, we may not need to beat the latter two, simply avoid defeat to maintain the gap.

As I say, the goal should be statistical certainty, but in the context of what others do, win the next 3, get back to second and matching Cardiff/Derby/Fulham will be enough. That may be 90 points, it probably will be a bit less.

Come Bruce you fucker, its on a plate. You know what to do with things on a plate surely.

As ever spot on Ads..i think the next 6 games is make or break..we should be looking at a minimum of 13-15 points out of that lot.We will never have a better chance to go up. Frankly it's now or years amongst the dead men.

[sickbeggar]

I wish i was as confident as some on here.  While i can see us not losing that much, it's the draws that will kill you. Either way in the next 6 games, we'd be aiming at 4 points (goal difference willing) more than cardiff get to be above them so....

bristol c 1
brentford away 1
barnsley 3
birmingham3
derby away 0
burton3

So a guesstimate i make that 11 points, meaning we'd need 15. Obviously getting above them with 7 games to go isn't essential but we'd certainly need to be in striking distance to take advantage of them with their hard run in April and beat them of course. Plus we have to hope the other teams around us don't do anything decent in the same period. I don't know...think it's going to be decided right at the death.