Promotion Maths

[Smirker]

OK
Some still think it's possible, please lay out your Theory here.

We are ten points behind.

We have 21 points to play for.

We have had a 12 points swing in our favour over the past seven games.

[Malandro]

We will be a point off the last playoff spot.

That's because Legion supports Aston Villa.

[IFWaters]

Theory

A complete outside chance. But a chance.

We have to win all our remaining 7 (but we have won 6 out of last 7, so not a total non-starter). That would get us to 75 points.

We are now 10 points behind Fulham, who are averaging 1.8 points a game over the season which would get them to 77 points.

Having said that in the last 5 games they have only won 1 game (today against Rotherham) and drawn 2, so latest form is 5 points from 15. We got 12.

But we still have to play Fulham (away).

Fulham's last game : away to Sheffield Wednesday.

Point that damages our chances : their goal diff is +20, ours is +2.

[KevinGage]

Win the next two and it's on.

[SoccerHQ]

We'd have to beat Fulham away to have any chance you'd think...do that and the gap would be 7 points.

Still think we're about 5-6 points off where we should be which is very frustrating given we effectively took half the season off when you combine our two terrible runs this season.

That's why it's important we come out firing in August. Another slow start won't be good enough for me as it would put too much pressure on us to catch up like this season.

Let's be setting the pace in the early weeks of August. This team is capable.

[nodge]

We will be a point off the last playoff spot.

That's because Legion supports Aston Villa.

We'll win 6 and draw 1 against Small Heath and they'll have it in their honours list and have an open top bus parade around Sherlock Street

[KevinGage]

We'd have to beat Fulham away to have any chance you'd think...do that and the gap would be 7 points.

Still think we're about 5-6 points off where we should be which is very frustrating given we effectively took half the season off when you combine our two terrible runs this season.

That's why it's important we come out firing in August. Another slow start won't be good enough for me as it would put too much pressure on us to catch up like this season.

Let's be setting the pace in the early weeks of August. This team is capable.

Problem is we don't exist in a bubble.  It's tempting to think that this side with one or two key additions should be well able for it next season. But sides with money in the top flight will look at Kodjia, for example (or maybe even Chester).  Then you would be talking about reshaping the side again and another period of transition.

Historically, the odds are against sides going back at the second attempt too.

If we have any chance at all this season, we have to go for it.

[olaftab]

Win the next two and it's on.

No afraid not. It's going to be a season of regrets. If only we had picked up 7 points out of 24  rather than 1 in that atrocious run in the new year.

[KevinGage]

Win the next two and it's on.

No afraid not. It's going to be a season of regrets. If only we had picked up 7 points out of 24  rather than 1 in that atrocious run in the new year.

Win the next two and the gap could theoretically be cut to 4 points. 

That won't happen, as not all the sides above us will lose their next two (statistically impossible if some of them are playing each other - I haven't checked).

But if the gap is down to six points, for the sake of argument, with the games we have left there will be plenty of sides nervous about the juggernaut that is Aston Villa blasting past them on the final stretch.

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

We've no chance, unfortunately.

[four fornicholl]

Win the next two and it's on.

No afraid not. It's going to be a season of regrets. If only we had picked up 7 points out of 24  rather than 1 in that atrocious run in the new year.

Win the next two and the gap could theoretically be cut to 4 points. 

That won't happen, as not all the sides above us will lose their next two (statistically impossible if some of them are playing each other - I haven't checked).

But if the gap is down to six points, for the sake of argument, with the games we have left there will be plenty of sides nervous about the juggernaut that is Aston Villa blasting past them on the final stretch.

I like the cut of your cloth young man? Game on and make no mistake!

[TonyD]

I think it's going to cruelly close at the end.   1 or two points.

[four fornicholl]

Sheff Wed look broken and Fulham have a very tough run in.

[eamonn]

We will be a point off the last playoff spot.

That's because Legion supports Aston Villa.

We'll win 6 and draw 1 against Small Heath and they'll have it in their honours list and have an open top bus parade around Sherlock Street

Where's that?

[IFWaters]

Fixtures

Fulham 64 pts
Derby - a
Ipswich -h
Norwich -a
Villa -h
Huddersfield -a
Brentford -h
Sheffield Weds - a

Sheffield Weds 63 pts
Rotherham - a
Newcastle - h
Cardiff -h
QPR - a
Derby - h
Ipswich - a
Fulham -h

Us 54 pts
QPR - h
Burton - a
Reading - h
Fulham - a
Bluenoses - h
Blackburn - a
Brighton - h