Promotion Maths

[Ads]

Google is lying then. Must have Villa myopia too. The site over estimated a clean sheet and underestimate a goal it seems.

Stats said 0.96 conceded per game and 7 clean sheets. Its actually 1 and 6. Still, only Brighton, Derby, Newcastle and now Wednesday have better.

We are good defensively, otherwise we'd be in a relegation fight.

[Old Kodjia]

It's still possible and I don't think 11 wins is impossible out of 19. (agree we need at least 11, if not 12)

Lansbury made a difference yesterday and IF we could get Hourihane in as well, it would be a very exciting midfield with all the energy and creativity that we've been lacking.  Kodjia + A.N Other up front will be more lethal than Gabby & Grealish.

It's a tall ask and as others have alluded to, it might be a year too soon.  For me, I just want something like the team we are going to be starting next season, having a good run of games together now, so as we can hit the ground running in August.

I don't see too many signings in August, we'll probably have to replace Amavi, I would hope that we upgrade on Jedinak and possibly another left sided player/striker, dependent on how we end up lining up.  It's vital to get our targets in that we are chasing this month.  I'd hate to lose out on Hourihane as the prospect of him and Lansbury in midfield is really quite mouthwatering.

Yesterday worried me as it was a turnaround of RDM proportions.  The marking for the 2nd goal is something that has repeated itself time and time again under Bruce and something else that needs working on.

I won't be overly disappointed if we don't do it this season.  We're not quite good enough and it will take a massive swing to turn things around.  Lansbury, Hourihane and another striker alongside Kodjia COULD make it possible but would the side benefit from another 12 months together before playing in the prem?  Remember, the play offs only put us in a lottery, they Guarantee nothing.

[QuintonVilla]

Over the last 6 games we're 14th in the form table.
Over the last 10 games we're 12th.
Blues haven't won since Zola took over but they're still above us.

What makes people think there's going to be a sudden and massive turnaround?

[Old Kodjia]

Over the last 6 games we're 14th in the form table.
Over the last 10 games we're 12th.
Blues haven't won since Zola took over but they're still above us.

What makes people think there's going to be a sudden and massive turnaround?

4 new quality players, in the areas that we've been crying out for?

[IFWaters]

Current 6th place is Sheff Weds who at their current rate would get to 76 or 77 points.

Our target has to be 1 more than that - say 78 points, which is the highest anyone has got for a 6th place finish in the last 20 seasons. In other seasons its been done with less than 70 points but I cant see that happening this season - there are some very good sides in contention, including Derby in 7th on 43.

To get from our 36 points from 27 games to 78 from 46 means 42 points in 19 games. 13 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. We need a back to back run of 4 wins starting virtually immediately :

Brentford (a)
Forest (a)
Ipswich (h)
Barnsley (h)


Even if we won the next 4 games we would STILL need to average 2 points a game for the remaining 15 games to get to 78.

Bristol City at home being postponed helps us as its a game less without Kodija but the challenge now looks like the north side of the Eiger to me.

[Steve67]

Perhaps I'm being too over optimistic but I can see us going on a little run now. Brentford, Forest and Ipswich I think we will beat. The barcode game will be moved? Due to them being in the cup? Two or three wins, with new players, and the the dream is on.

[Pete3206]

A month ago, I was convinced we could make the top 6.

It's not going to happen is it? We're building for next year now. Flush out the dross, bring in some more proven Championship quality in the summer and go for the title next year.

[SoccerHQ]

If he buys young talent - and can COACH them into being a good, fast-playing TEAM then we have a chance next season. Otherwise it will only get harder as our better players are tempted away and good ones won't join.

Before start of this season I'd have said Ayew and Amavi would've been must keeps.

I was delighted when we rejected bids but Ayew has been a massive disappointment at this level and while I like Amavi again blows hot and cold and really a 20m + bid should be seriously considered.

Beyond that I'm not sure who else we could lose that would hurt us....can't see Chester or Kodjia leaving as they've only just signed. If they stay and we get in more midfielders we will start a season with the strongest spine since arguably the MON days.

There should be no excuses next season.

[SoccerHQ]

Need to win at least 10 of 19 games now to have a realistic chance?

I think it might need to be more like 12.  Very difficult but I honestly think that if we make the playoffs, we will............

(Don't want to hex it! Silly me, I still have faith!)

Quite.  Let's just say that we win 10 out of 19 and lose the other 9 (not crazy - it's essentially how Newcastle's season has panned out so far).  We'd then be relying on Wednesday getting less than 21 points from the 57 available - that's relegation form.  Oh, and the six other teams between us and Wednesday dropping off as well.

I know that hope's a wonderful thing but it feels like it's better to accept the inevitable now!

Still loving this league compared to the prem?

[SoccerHQ]

A month ago, I was convinced we could make the top 6.

It's not going to happen is it? We're building for next year now. Flush out the dross, bring in some more proven Championship quality in the summer and go for the title next year.

Yep that in a nutshell.

Xmas period was a big time for us....we started off alright but failed miserably since.

Only hope is we still have to play a lot of the bottom 8 away.....Forest, Rotherham, Wigan, Blackburn, Burton etc.

I don't expect us to win all of them but surely we can win a few away games so if we can keep the strong home form that should at least push us up the league a bit more.

[oswald funkletrumpet]

If he buys young talent - and can COACH them into being a good, fast-playing TEAM then we have a chance next season. Otherwise it will only get harder as our better players are tempted away and good ones won't join.

Before start of this season I'd have said Ayew and Amavi would've been must keeps.

I was delighted when we rejected bids but Ayew has been a massive disappointment at this level and while I like Amavi again blows hot and cold and really a 20m + bid should be seriously considered.

Beyond that I'm not sure who else we could lose that would hurt us....can't see Chester or Kodjia leaving as they've only just signed. If they stay and we get in more midfielders we will start a season with the strongest spine since arguably the MON days.

There should be no excuses next season.

There can be no excuses next season

a third season in this division will kill us financially

[footyskillz]

A 13 to 14 match winning run from remaining games or winning around that would see a play off spot. Would need the right blend of players and bit of luck.  I honestly think if made play offs we win it as the momentum would be there. It could actually be too much to bear if lost in play offs.
However I won't give up till impossible.  That the spirit villa players need to adapt !
UTV

[brian green]

They need to be adept to adapt to adopt footy.

[footyskillz]

They need to be adept to adapt to adopt footy.

I like that !  Execcellnt!

[aj2k77]

I've seen nothing that makes me believe we are good enough as a team, even with an additional midfielder to think we can win 13 out of 19 and get in the playoffs. Not solid enough, not strong enough, not consistent enough, not fit enough.