Promotion Maths

[oldtimernow]

We need to start scoring more goals, it's really disappointing that we have  managed so few goals with a much vaunted strike force . A more inventive midfield will help, Adomah could be our secret weapon.

[itbrvilla]

You're right, amazing how much we spent and still the midfield struggles to offer much.

[SoccerHQ]

We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.

We are....we have won 3 of our last 5.

Drawn 2 of last 3, 3 of last 6. Love the fact wevery improved, we still lack any killer instinct.

Well yes but we won't win every single game left this season....they'll still be draws and the odd defeat.

Way I see it....Reading and Fulham games were both heading for draws and we won both of them.

If you look at teams above us....not many of them are in great form. SHA won their first game in 4 yesterday (they're also a bit lucky they haven't yet faced Newcastle or Brighton this season) and Norwich have lost their last 4 or 5 yet are still in the top 6.

But both have all the points they accumulated in the early weeks to fall back on....we don't have that luxury.

[Ads]

We're averaging two points a game, that's title form.

We've turned defeats into draws with Wolves and Small Heath. We should have beaten Brighton, but a point still wasn't a bad result.

[VillaAlways]

We desperately need to turn these draws into wins.

We are....we have won 3 of our last 5.

Drawn 2 of last 3, 3 of last 6. Love the fact wevery improved, we still lack any killer instinct.

Bruce has had to stabilise and essentially had to build from the back and instill confidence by making us more solid. I think we will start winning more comfortably now  hopefully starting Saturday

[AV82EC]

You're right, amazing how much we spent and still the midfield struggles to offer much.

Which changed enormously when Grealish/Ayew came on. We still look a bit disjointed as a forward unit with some good partnerships forming but the whole not quite linking together across the pitch. But it will come.

[footyskillz]

The 2nd half versus Brighton (furthermore and Hove Albion,  2 teams !) Was the epitome performance. In  moving forward on collection of points such football player would see many maxuim of 3. I like to think there are 9 points in next 3 matches boosting promotion hopes. Most importantly all teams have to play one another so points will be lost by teams ahead in table. Still reasonable to see top 2 . Currently seeing Derby with 3 wins rise and Norwich slump means anything  possible

[IFWaters]

By the way, I like to look at the stats, a bit Moneyball if you will, but they can tell you some interesting things. Anyway it makes a change from trolling Westwood, so heres my tuppence...

We are now 5 points behind Norwich in the playoff places but there are a mass of teams in the running.

Ive revised my view and think we need to be in those playoff places by the New Year (before the ACN) , taking at least 14 points from the next 7 games :

26 Nov - Cardiff (h)
3 Dec - Leeds (a)
10 Dec - Wigan (h)
13 Dec - Norwich (a)
18 Dec - QPR (a)
26 Dec - Burton (h)
29 Dec - Leeds (h)

Those 14 points would take us to 36 points from 24 matches, with 22 left to play.

Playoffs on average are 74 points, so 1.7 points a game, automatic places on average 87 points, so a real stretch 2.3 points a game (thats 2 wins and a draw in every 3 matches or 5 wins and a draw in every 7 matches - form we have not seen from Villa in maybe 25 years).

Earlier posters have said it, we now need the goals to start flowing.

Our defence is the 3rd best in the league, only Newcastle and Brighton have conceded less, but in attack we rank 17/24 - despite all the talent at our disposal.  If you look at the stats on

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/6365/Stages/13832/TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2016-2017

we are 14th/24 for shots per game and similar for shots on target.

I know a lot will say that midfield is the problem ...do these stats prove that ?

[Ad@m]

We're averaging two points a game, that's title form.

Except the Jawdees and Brighton are both running at more than two points a game...

[Ads]

We're 5th in the form table over the past six games and if we keep our average up we will hit the play offs.

[Matt Collins]

Precisely. It's play off form and not quite title form. And given the head start we've given teams we'd possibly have to do better than your standard title form.

I would fancy us against the vast bulk of teams in the play offs. Just got to hope Newcastle don't implode and finish there. Would probably rather avoid Norwich of all the others but I reckon they'll be in it.

[VillaAlways]

We've gone up to 15th tonight without playing 😀

[exigo]

Form table makes for good reading. Huddersfield and Norwich dropping like stones, and the only points Reading and Brighton have dropped recently have been against one Aston Villa.

Clicky

[footyskillz]

By the way, I like to look at the stats, a bit Moneyball if you will, but they can tell you some interesting things. Anyway it makes a change from trolling Westwood, so heres my tuppence...

We are now 5 points behind Norwich in the playoff places but there are a mass of teams in the running.

Ive revised my view and think we need to be in those playoff places by the New Year (before the ACN) , taking at least 14 points from the next 7 games :

26 Nov - Cardiff (h)
3 Dec - Leeds (a)
10 Dec - Wigan (h)
13 Dec - Norwich (a)
18 Dec - QPR (a)
26 Dec - Burton (h)
29 Dec - Leeds (h)

Those 14 points would take us to 36 points from 24 matches, with 22 left to play.

Playoffs on average are 74 points, so 1.7 points a game, automatic places on average 87 points, so a real stretch 2.3 points a game (thats 2 wins and a draw in every 3 matches or 5 wins and a draw in every 7 matches - form we have not seen from Villa in maybe 25 years).

Earlier posters have said it, we now need the goals to start flowing.

Our defence is the 3rd best in the league, only Newcastle and Brighton have conceded less, but in attack we rank 17/24 - despite all the talent at our disposal.  If you look at the stats on

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/6365/Stages/13832/TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2016-2017

we are 14th/24 for shots per game and similar for shots on target.

I know a lot will say that midfield is the problem ...do these stats prove that ?

I see teams around still have to play each other so that's a consideration in regards to points right?
For e.g. villa play Leeds twice in December and winning both takes 6 points from them. Similarly other teams play each other and deny points so there's a chance is there not of winning league or finishing in top 2 still?

Newcastle lose out yesterday.  Reading and Derby are on a run which won't last I think There's real chance of automatic and main thing convinced me was that brigjton 2nd half performance

[Old Kodjia]

We're currently 4 points off 5th & 6th, 6 points off 4th.

If we can win 2 more games than any of those teams between now and Cardiff away, we'll be starting the new year in a play off spot.  This would have been unthinkable when Bruce first arrived at the club.  I think the target then would have been to get to the new year and be within striking distance of the play offs, to actually be in the top 6 would be a fantastic achievement.

I still think that top 2 is a bridge too far for us this season but at the time that Bruce took over, I wasn't entirely convinced that top 6 was achievable.  I'm now very confident that it is.

I think the top 2 will remain the same for the remainder of the season.  After that, the next 4 places is anyones guess, such is the uncertainty and competitiveness of the division. I think that we should secure one of the 4 play off spots.  After that, I wouldn't like to guess.  Teams go on runs and climb the table pretty rapidly, Reading for instance have won 5 out of 6 (I think).  Leeds had a few wins and went from one end of the table to the other.  Blues in fairness have been pretty consistent all season.  Sheffield Wednesday hit a blip but have come back strongly.  If we get there, I personally don't care who we meet, other than Blues.  Blues would be a great leveler, as we saw in the recent derby and would also stretch the meaning of unpleasantness to beyond breaking point.