Former PL club Aston Villa 2-3 Watford - post mortem thread

[Clampy]

Now that relegation is pretty much confirmed, I might enjoy the rest of the season. It'll come too late but I think Garde will eventually get them into some form and we will win a few game and play with a bit of style.

Well, it's not pretty much confirmed is it? It's not looking great I admit, but we need to remain positive.

[Hillbilly]

Now that relegation is pretty much confirmed, I might enjoy the rest of the season. It'll come too late but I think Garde will eventually get them into some form and we will win a few game and play with a bit of style.

Well, it's not pretty much confirmed is it? It's not looking great I admit, but we need to remain positive.

It is statistically very, very unlikely that we'll stay up. I'll be the first to chip in 100 quid for a statue of Remi Garde if we beat the odds but I ain't gonna start saving.

[chrisf]

Now that relegation is pretty much confirmed, I might enjoy the rest of the season. It'll come too late but I think Garde will eventually get them into some form and we will win a few game and play with a bit of style.

Well, it's not pretty much confirmed is it? It's not looking great I admit, but we need to remain positive.

It is statistically very, very unlikely that we'll stay up. I'll be the first to chip in 100 quid for a statue of Remi Garde if we beat the odds but I ain't gonna start saving.

The bookies have us at 5 to one on for relegation. Sounds about right to me. Odds on but nowhere near "statistically very, very unlikely" that we'll stay up. Unless you think it's "statistically very, very unlikely" that you can throw a six with one roll of a dice.

Just because no-one has survived from this position in the 22 years of the premier league does not mean it's impossible.

[oldhill_avfc]

Another shambolic performance. 

Many on here felt this was a mid-table squad being mis-managed by Tactics Tim, but on this performance, I think it's clear that as a group these players are not capable of playing football at this level.

The defence makes mistakes but for me the midfield is the real problem.  Constantly giving the ball away, creating nothing, never getting control of a game, never protecting the back four.  Abysmal to a man (whichever man) - Vertout was probably the best on Saturday, but he's still way short of being half way decent.  Sanchez ... where do you start?  When we're attacking he's behing our back four, when defending he's still on the same spot, but in this case way behind their attacking line.  And that's before he's played them in nicely for yet another goal scoring opportunity by giving the ball away.

Whats' the answer?  We can't 'play' football so 3 central defenders, 2 wing backs (we've got no full backs anyway), mop up pressure and play direct on counter. 



 

[rob_bridge]

Very harsh.

He was fine in 2012/13 - probably a big factor in us staying up.

Looked OK in 2013-14 too.

Ropey from the second half of last season onward though, and can have no complaints if we bring in a replacement.  Which we should have done in the summer, in all honesty.

He was excellent 2012 & 2013 calendar years. Top 6 keeper.
2014 his form dipped a bit.
2015 he has been all over the place.

Then again when your best defender is Phillip Senderos who gets better with every game he doesn't pla y there is some mitigation

[Ads]

Another shambolic performance. 

Many on here felt this was a mid-table squad being mis-managed by Tactics Tim, but on this performance, I think it's clear that as a group these players are not capable of playing football at this level.

The defence makes mistakes but for me the midfield is the real problem.  Constantly giving the ball away, creating nothing, never getting control of a game, never protecting the back four.  Abysmal to a man (whichever man) - Vertout was probably the best on Saturday, but he's still way short of being half way decent.  Sanchez ... where do you start?  When we're attacking he's behing our back four, when defending he's still on the same spot, but in this case way behind their attacking line.  And that's before he's played them in nicely for yet another goal scoring opportunity by giving the ball away.

Whats' the answer?  We can't 'play' football so 3 central defenders, 2 wing backs (we've got no full backs anyway), mop up pressure and play direct on counter. 



 

The midfield created plenty, two goals and had 69% of the ball in the first half.

If you're defending as badly as we are, and look at the 10 goals we've shipped in the last four games and its no wonder why we are where we are. Watford's second and third were laughably poor goals to concede.

[auntiesledd]

The true Geordies feelings about his club probably echo how must of us feel about the Villa right now.
NSFW

I know he and many Newcastle fans will enjoy watching us go down but I think he articulated my feelings about supporting Villa very well.

Fairplay to him.

Top rant. He speaks for long-suffering supporters throughout the country. I actually zoned-out of his fully justified polemic about The Mags & - rather predictably - substituted the not dissimilar unholy shambles happening at VP. Frankly, it ain't exactly the start to the week I was hoping for...   

[Hillbilly]

Now that relegation is pretty much confirmed, I might enjoy the rest of the season. It'll come too late but I think Garde will eventually get them into some form and we will win a few game and play with a bit of style.

Well, it's not pretty much confirmed is it? It's not looking great I admit, but we need to remain positive.

It is statistically very, very unlikely that we'll stay up. I'll be the first to chip in 100 quid for a statue of Remi Garde if we beat the odds but I ain't gonna start saving.

The bookies have us at 5 to one on for relegation. Sounds about right to me. Odds on but nowhere near "statistically very, very unlikely" that we'll stay up. Unless you think it's "statistically very, very unlikely" that you can throw a six with one roll of a dice.

Just because no-one has survived from this position in the 22 years of the premier league does not mean it's impossible.

The bookies' odds aren't a statistical measure, they're a reaction to market sentiment. Without doing the numbers, using a Bayesian approach, I'd guess we are >95% to drop. Off the top of my head 100% of teams in this position have dropped. As someone pointed out, we have the worst record of any team in the top four divisions over the past five years. I'll repeat, it is very very unlikely we'll stay up.

[Brend'Watkins]

The only good coming from Saturday is that going forward we had the best half of football from us this season. Why didn't we keep it up in the 2nd?  That said, Traore was a spark when he came on and has to start the next game and every one after that.

[chrisf]

The bookies' odds aren't a statistical measure, they're a reaction to market sentiment. Without doing the numbers, using a Bayesian approach, I'd guess we are >95% to drop. Off the top of my head 100% of teams in this position have dropped. As someone pointed out, we have the worst record of any team in the top four divisions over the past five years. I'll repeat, it is very very unlikely we'll stay up.

Fair play but, without wanting to sound rude, the bit about a 'using a Bayesian approach' made me laugh out loud as statistics and the application of Bayes theory is part of my day job. If you really think we should be 1/20 for the drop then I'd lump on at 1/5.

[Ads]

The second half started slowly, but I felt we were the better side. We then gifted them a goal out of absolutely nothing. Confidence bleed away as a result.

[paul_e]

The only good coming from Saturday is that going forward we had the best half of football from us this season. Why didn't we keep it up in the 2nd?  That said, Traore was a spark when he came on and has to start the next game and every one after that.

The thing is I think we did keep it up, we were comfortably on top until Gomes went off but the break cut all the momentum from our attack and then the concentration of the defenders becomes the focus and that screws us over every time, all of our back 4 on saturday made mistakes where they were caught ball watching and let their man find space, whilst that carries on we won't improve, no matter how much better we are going forward.

On that note we really need a striker who wants to gamble in the box, both of their keepers looked like they were catching soap and yet none of our strikers gambled on them spilling the ball for a tap in.  On top of that I don't think we shoot often enough.  The injury to Gomes is a decent example, the ball came to Gil and he could've hit it first time, yes there was a defender covering it but with their keeper and a defender lying on the floor on the edge of the 6yard box you have to roll the dice rather than trying to work the space to give someone a tap in.

Goals conceded:
The first is just rank defending and goalkeeping, there's probably 3-4 chances to deal with that situation before he gets 1-1 and even then for me Guzan has to react much quicker to the deflection, you can leave him that much time 6-8yards out.
The second has a few issues in the build up but the final touch is easily the worst, going for that ball with his right foot was pathetic, use his left and the ball goes safely across the box where Clark and/or Richardson would be clear favourites to get on it and clear, Hutton deserves almost all of the criticism for that one for me.
The third is the worst of the lot, the final deflection and header I have no great problem with, he was always going to win that given the relative positions, but before that we had 3-4 chances to clear or get tackles in but we were unbelievably timid and just let them boss us.  It is absolutely essential that we do something about the panic and passivity that our entire defence are plagued with.

[Jimmy Buffett]

This is the worst Villa side I have ever seen and I have bee supporting them since 1966. Shame on Lerner for what he's done to our club.

[YamYamVilla]

Apart from a dodgy keeper, an error strewn defence, a hap hazard midfield & a non existent forward line, we are in good shape.

The two teams Saturday were that shite it actually made for a good game, & has stated earlier in the thread, as I have accepted we will be relegated you can almost watch the games pressure free.

When the inevitable happens, do we stick with Garde or change again?

There are smalls shoots of better football under RG, but will he have what it takes to get us moving in the right direction again?

[MarkM]

This is the worst Villa side I have ever seen and I have bee supporting them since 1966.

Hmm I'm not sure, I once saw a Villa side play CAD Kineton (Army base) in a friendly match, they were OK considering who they were playing.

Come to think about it they did score 11 times, so forget what I was saying your right.