Randy Lerner

[pauliewalnuts]

If he'd been a real fan of the club, he wouldn't have gone to Cambridge University, he'd have gone to Birmingham Poly.

Warwick Uni, surely?

Too close to Coventry.

[Villa in Denmark]

Boozey, I hope your real name is Tom Fox

[silhillvilla]

I don't post very often, but I read on here a lot. I thought I'd just share a thought I've had that has made me think everything is going to be okay. Now, I should point out that this is almost psychotic in its optimism, and based on nothing more than a series of hunches, but hey, when the other choice (reality?) is so depressing, I reserve the right to make up something to keep spirits high. Life is more fun this way.

So my theory is that all of this, the apparent mess we find ourselves in, is all part of the grand plan. Everything. Maybe not Randy's, but a plan non the less.

Think back to February and the aftermath of that Hull match. It was clear that Lambert had to go, and the rumours of a 'relegation zone clause' seemed to make sense considering the timing, probably saving the club a million quid or so. To replace him, while there may have been plenty of good managers around the world (and my knowledge of world football is not very good) that could have come in and done well, there would have been a certain amount of risk involved with bringing in a manager unaccustomed to the Premier League, and at the time we didn't really have any time to let someone get used to the surroundings; staying up was the only option. What we needed was a confident, brash motivator that could get the team playing with a bit more belief and utilise one of the best strikers in Europe. While Tim was a risk, he was a more calculated risk.

The other advantage of choosing a young manager with, let's put it politely, a good deal of confidence in his own ability, is that he might have been happy to sign certain performance related clauses in his contract…

Anyway, we survived. The first part of the plan was a success! However, to put the long term future of the club in the hands of a man with such little experience, and who's deficiencies as a manager were already being exploited by the end of the season, would have been suicide. But what can you do? You can't sack the man that saved you, but letting him spend what precious little money you had would be like letting your seven year old decorate the lounge.

So, you take control of the signings, but humour the egomaniac (who is very hurt by the 'Tactics Tim' nickname) by feeding him a few lines so he can tell the world how clever he is by buying players most fans haven't heard of. You buy players with potential; good technique, quick and relatively young that will both improve the team and increase in value. (You give the manager some of the change at the end to buy a big bloke, just to keep him happy for a bit).

Once the season starts, either it works well with the current manager (unlikely, but great if it does), or it goes horribly wrong, which you've protected yourself against: the contract he signed had a clause in it which states if the team is in the relegation zone (that old chestnut!) at any point after 10 games, you can sack him with much less compensation. Why 10 games? Well there needed to be some protection in case we got dealt a start from hell (which we definitely didn't!) and 10 games seems fair enough. If we're in the relegation zone after 10 games, he's not up to the job but there is still time to bring someone to turn it all around.

When it starts going wrong, he'll undoubtedly start to defend himself, using his cronies in the media. But just keep a dignified silence. It will all be over soon, and he's just making a fool of himself. Don't even make a comment about pigs and muck. Maybe just leak a story that his job is in danger, just so it's not all one way in the press.

Then after the inevitable sacking, and this is the important bit, you can finally appoint your man, that you've been speaking to for a few weeks. A thinker, a man that will both inspire and mould the team. Someone who can use the talented players that you have in place and set a system up that will last well beyond his tenure (I don't know who this could be, by the way!). And as the talented players inevitably get poached by the bigger boys, you'll use the profits to buy more, keeping a bit back for one almighty assault a few years down the line. Everything is going to be okay! Exciting, even!

So you see, fellow Villa sufferers, we don't need to worry. The people in charge know exactly what they're doing, and by the new year, this three week period of confusion, uncertainty and rumour will be a distant dream. Of course, on Monday we might appoint Bob Bradley and be relegated by Christmas. Even at my most optimistic, I couldn't spin that as a good thing.

(Sorry for blabbering on!)

Good to see weed is still abundant at Uni. Enjoy son.

[frankmosswasmyuncle]

Great post boozey!

I'm with you all the way....except for the last few sentences!

UTV!

[Ian.]

That's a wonderful read Boozey. I like your thinking vey much.

[Billy Walker]

Boozey, genuinely, that's exactly what I have been thinking/hoping too.  When Lambert was fired it simply wasn't the time to get an available "real" manager in so they plumped for the best/only option out there - Tim.  Tim being Tim would only agree to join us if we offered him a long term contract so that is what we did, with plenty of clauses to cover ourselves... *fingers crossed*

[peter w]

Well I've signed up to that.

[Dave]

That's a wonderful read Boozey. I like your thinking vey much.

Quite agree.

With that ability to make things seem a bit better, I'd have no qualms with you giving the team talk on Saturday.

[Hillbilly]

If he'd been a real fan of the club, he wouldn't have gone to Cambridge University, he'd have gone to Birmingham Poly.

Warwick Uni, surely?

If he'd done his MBA at Warwick or Aston business schools we probably wouldn't be in this mess now.

[ozzjim]

I would not be shocked if there is a clause around being in the bottom 3 10 games in either. It tallies with the 2 games to save his job and the club silence.

[villadelph]

So a vicious circle of Hope - Upturn - Downturn - Crash - Reset - Hope... is okay?

We are the most unstable and poorly run club in the league. Watford play better football, Crystal Palace get better results, West Ham have a better manager, Swansea have a better business plan, and Southampton have a better academy. I would consider us "bigger" than all of those clubs yet we're a genuine laughing stock (in every category) that can't even put 90 minutes together at home.

Boozey you say? How ironic.

[boozey182]

So a vicious circle of Hope - Upturn - Downturn - Crash - Reset - Hope... is okay?

We are the most unstable and poorly run club in the league. Watford play better football, Crystal Palace get better results, West Ham have a better manager, Swansea have a better business plan, and Southampton have a better academy. I would consider us "bigger" than all of those clubs yet we're a genuine laughing stock (in every category) that can't even put 90 minutes together at home.

Boozey you say? How ironic.

I just think the next week or so will tell us a lot about how the club will be run by Fox and Co. Who they get to replace Sherwood (surely he's a goner now) will tell us so much about their ambition for us, and overtaking the clubs you mention should be an absolute minimum.

Before anything happens though, everything is just speculation. We can all choose what we want to believe is going to happen; it won't make any different to what actually happens. The scenario I wrote last night might turn out to be hopelessly wrong, in which case we'll be in trouble. Until then I'll walk around with my hands in pockets, whistling a happy tune. What else can we do?

[leylandalbion]

All sound logic, however, does anyone really have faith that we would appoint the 'right' manager

[Ads]

We have people making decision that have experience within the game at a high level and within a very good club like Arsenal, with clear knowledge of continental players.

Is it out of the realms of possibility to conclude that their knowledge might extend to managers too?

Like others have said, and I like the cut of Boozeys post, I get the impression that the system that has been implemented is tailored made for somebody from Europe or further afield and that is the route they will take.

[old man villa fan]

All sound logic, however, does anyone really have faith that we would appoint the 'right' manager

The amount we have allegedly paid out in compensation in the last 5 years would have paid for a top manager, considering we pay well anyway.

I am sure a decent transfer budget could be found from the money wasted, as well.

Hindsight is great, isn't it.