This is the season...

[SoccerHQ]

Way I see it....we need to get 7 points per month now.

We're currently on 4 for January so need to beat West Brom. If we don't we need to get more points in other months etc.

If we can accumulate 7 points this month, Feb, March (that looks difficult with only 3 games) and April that would put us on 36 points going into Newcastle home game in May. That would be a very good position, 36 points may yet keep you up.

It's a long shot but when you break it down it's not completely impossible as at least we're not conceding many atm which gives you the opportunity to pick up points.

Just don't see many goals still, surely we will get in a new striker at least this window?

[pbavfckuwait]

The signs point to relegation, but as stated we need to win our games and as many of them as possible, other teams above us will  have a slump and we just need to keep plugging away, the fat lady might have cleared her throat, but she aint singing yet. I think 36 to 38 points will keep us up.
As for letting the squad know which ones we want to keep, if only it was that simple, the players will decide that and the only ones we will be stuck with are the likes of Gabby, Westwood, Hutton and such like, because no one else will want them.

[oswald funkletrumpet]

our big problem is we are 11 points from safety if you include gd.

the next 3 games we can pick up points from but the next 5 are tough

if we were a couple of wins from safety i would fancy it

[Villa in Denmark]

our big problem is we are 11 points from safety if you include gd.

the next 3 games we can pick up points from but the next 5 are tough

if we were a couple of wins from safety i would fancy it

The goal difference looks awful as well, it requires a 10 goal swing whilst getting a 10 point swing at the same time, but from a purely practical perspective.

The quickest way to achieve that swing is to win 3 and draw 1 whilst Swansea lose 4. The minimum goal difference change is then +3 for us and -4 for them which gives a 7 goal swing.  That would leave us looking for a further 3 goal swing, which would only require us winning by 2 goals in 2 of our 3 theoretical wins, whilst Swansea lost by 2 goals in one of their 4 defeats.

If we can get the points on the board, the goal difference will pretty much sort itself out.

[Chris Smith]

The way I am looking at it is one step at a time. First target is to get away from last place, if we can get above Sunderland then we can see what is next. If I consider the whole task then it seems too much.

[PeterWithesShin]

I don't get the GD is another point. We win 4 in a row, Swansea lose 4 in a row that's a minimum of an 8 goals swing. In reality they won't all be 1-0 wins/defeats so our GD will be better than theirs.

Ah, I remember us winning 4 in a row, shame it was so long ago my memories of it are in black and white.

[oswald funkletrumpet]

I don't get the GD is another point. We win 4 in a row, Swansea lose 4 in a row that's a minimum of an 8 goals swing. In reality they won't all be 1-0 wins/defeats so our GD will be better than theirs.

Ah, I remember us winning 4 in a row, shame it was so long ago my memories of it are in black and white.

swansea are ten goals better off

if we get 10 points from the next 4 and they lose them all and their goal diffence goes down by -5 and ours goes up by +4 we are still be behind them.

[PeterWithesShin]

If that happened there would be a minimum of a 7 goal swing, although i'd bet if it did happen it would be at least 10. I have no doubt that if at the end of the season we are level on points with Swansea we'll have a better GD.

[amfy]

I don't get the GD is another point. We win 4 in a row, Swansea lose 4 in a row that's a minimum of an 8 goals swing. In reality they won't all be 1-0 wins/defeats so our GD will be better than theirs.

Ah, I remember us winning 4 in a row, shame it was so long ago my memories of it are in black and white.

swansea are ten goals better off

if we get 10 points from the next 4 and they lose them all and their goal diffence goes down by -5 and ours goes up by +4 we are still be behind them.

That's not an extra point though, it's needing to win one of those games by another goal (or them to lose one of their ps by another goal - actually more likely).

When you imagine a 4 win/4 loss swing, how likely is it that every single one of those 8 results will be by a one goal margin?

[Villa in Denmark]

I don't get the GD is another point. We win 4 in a row, Swansea lose 4 in a row that's a minimum of an 8 goals swing. In reality they won't all be 1-0 wins/defeats so our GD will be better than theirs.

Ah, I remember us winning 4 in a row, shame it was so long ago my memories of it are in black and white.

swansea are ten goals better off

if we get 10 points from the next 4 and they lose them all and their goal diffence goes down by -5 and ours goes up by +4 we are still be behind them.

That's not an extra point though, it's needing to win one of those games by another goal (or them to lose one of their ps by another goal - actually more likely).

When you imagine a 4 win/4 loss swing, how likely is it that every single one of those 8 results will be by a one goal margin?

(M x N x EGAU)³:1
      (P-E)^-10

Where
M= Miserablism
N= Negativity
EGAU= Everything Goes Against Us
P=Positivity
E=Enjoyment

[brian green]

You omitted RI= Referee Incompetence, only partially included in EGAU factor because RI is the unknown 'M' of Everything is Made to Go Against Us.  Huth's partial decapitation of Kozak being a typical case.

[john e]

I know it's been said a million times but those 4 games after Arsenal killed us imo

Newcastle, west ham, Norwich and Sunderland, at the time I thought we needed 6 points as a minimum and it was achievable, we ended up with just 2 and I think it sealed our fate

We have seen some improvement of late, but the teams above us are also picking up points like Sansea last week, and it going to take a miracle now,

But where there's hope there's Life

[george avfc]

Its good to see the steady improvement under Garde. It may be too late, but if we could match Leicester's last 15 games in 14/15 (7 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats), it would give us a fighting chance
Can we do it?.. probably not, but I might feel differently about it if we could sign that elusive striker who could bag 10 goals between now and the end of the season

[SoccerHQ]

We need to capitalise on days like this....Norwich lost (and surely the manner of that will knock the stuffing out of them for a few weeks), relegation six pointer ended a draw and Newcastle lost.

While today in isolation looks a decent point, it's not enough when other results are filtering through in our favour.

I still think we'll do well to get to 30 points personally.

[Boz]

Swansea beating Everton is a result we didn't want putting them 12 points in front of Villa. It's only leaving the bottom four in the escape equation for Villa now and Norwich is a 10 point gap.