This is the season...

[Dave]

Of course we could all hope for some statistical anomaly where this year 20 points keeps us up, but in the last 20 years that hasn't happened. So lets not pretend points totals don't matter here.

In the last 20 years the previous year's champions haven't been fifteenth in the league after a third of the season either, but here we are.

And nobody is pretending that points don't matter. But suggesting that whether other teams around us win or lose is going to have no impact on what we need to do in order to stay up is a complete fallacy.

It is a good job no one is suggesting that then.

But as we don't know "whether other teams around us win or lose" a projection based on points totals that usually secure safety is not "Picking a random number and assuming that we're doomed if we get anything less than that" but the best tool we have at this point in the season is assessing the likelihood that we drop this season.

Given that it was a conversation about whether a team around us had won or lost, we very much did know. That's what was being discussed.

The result tonight has got nothing to do with us accumulating 36 points. It doesn't make that target harder or easier.

Had Sunderland lost last night then that would have been three fewer points that we need in order to finish above them. If Bournemouth lose at the weekend then that it's fewer that we need to overtake them.

If they all go on spectacular winning runs and all finish on 38 points, the fact that we've got 36 won't really come as much of a consolation.

[PeterWithesShin]

It's a bit of both really. We know other sides will win games which is why we need 35+ points to stay up. So it's not ideal that Sunderland won, but unless we get to 35+ we'll be down regardless of what other sides do.

[MarkM]

By the 19th of December I think we will still be bottom with 8 points

I am struggling to see how we will avoid the drop this season

[OzVilla]

What's the lowest points total hat anyone has stayed up on?

Whatever it is I think it'll get a run for its money this season.

[Ads]

In the Premier League era, the Albion stayed up on 34.

[Ads]

Looking at the weekends fixtures, if we're able to win the Watford game, then there is a really strong chance of only being two points away from safety come Saturday evening.

That would be a double psychological boost of knowing its only one result, coupled with confidence and belief seeping into the fibre of the players that may lead to something mad happening like winning two or three of our next six games. Given that includes West Ham, Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland, that might not be beyond the realms of possibility.

Gods below but we need a win.

[FranzBiberkopf]

Similarities are uncanny.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/nov/24/newcastle-steve-mcclaren-season-sack

Pinning hopes on unproven French players = check.
Lack of leadership in dressing room/pitch = check.
Manager not signing players, committee recommending = check.

[old man villa fan]

Similarities are uncanny.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/nov/24/newcastle-steve-mcclaren-season-sack

Pinning hopes on unproven French players = check.
Lack of leadership in dressing room/pitch = check.
Manager not signing players, committee recommending = check.

Forgot the 'French players unable to make up for a s***squad'

[Des Little]

I haven't checked this but wouldn't be surprised if it were true - I'm told our last Premier League home win was 200 days ago today. Happy anniversary!

[itbrvilla]

Why did they put up with Dims BS for so long especially as he was acting like a cock?

[Pete]

I haven't checked this but wouldn't be surprised if it were true - I'm told our last Premier League home win was 200 days ago today. Happy anniversary!

That sounds about right. And we've won a grand total of three home league games since we beat Leicester on 7th December.

[auntiesledd]

It's been a good few years since I had that "we're doomed" feeling, but that's exactly where I'm at now, sadly. I still cling to the hope that Monsieur Garde still has the ability & time to turn this floundering vessel around & head for a safe haven, but like others I really don't see a squad that has the quality & experience that's required at this time. The club has become a Shitehouse Of Sadness in recent years & the inevitable outcome is staring everybody in the mush (bar, presumably, a certain multi-millionaire owner). Perhaps Saturday's game will give us all renewed hope, but I'm at the point whereby I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if we get humped by Watford c/w scumbag Deeney givin' it large. 'Sake.   

[Musicmaan]

Every season that we've been struggling (I.E. every season recently), I've always managed to keep the faith and have never actually believed that we would be relegated, even when it was looking like a real possibility. Why that is, I don't know, but what I do know is I've always been right.

This season, I'm looking at the table, results and performances and I have to say, this really is going to be the year, isn't it?

[The Left Side]

Confidence is huge, if we can get a win and a few positives like the Man City then it can change everything but right now the negativity is killing us. Last night I dreamt we lost 6-2 to Wimbledon at the old Plough Lane and they were in that Hummel kit and Shaun Teale scored our goal after coming out of retirement. God knows what that means but I have a similar feeling to Musicmaan.

[Musicmaan]

Confidence is huge, if we can get a win and a few positives like the Man City then it can change everything but right now the negativity is killing us. Last night I dreamt we lost 6-2 to Wimbledon at the old Plough Lane and they were in that Hummel kit and Shaun Teale scored our goal after coming out of retirement. God knows what that means but I have a similar feeling to Musicmaan.

And that's why we really HAVE to beat Watford at home.

If we can't win that match, we really don't deserve to not be worried.